HAL histórico de movimento esperado Halliburton Company
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo48%
|Real| abaixo do esperado47%
Movimento esperado médio±5.6%
Movimento |real| médio6.4%
Erro médio absoluto2.8pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 33.19 | ±5.3% | 31.43–34.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 33.50 | ±5.7% | 31.59–35.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 32.91 | ±5.9% | 30.96–34.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 32.66 | ±6.1% | 30.68–34.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 32.57 | ±6.2% | 30.54–34.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 32.49 | ±6.9% | 30.23–34.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 31.89 | ±6.7% | 29.75–34.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 32.72 | ±7.2% | 30.38–35.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 32.78 | ±7.2% | 30.41–35.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 31.95 | ±7.3% | 29.61–34.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 31.86 | ±7.5% | 29.48–34.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 32.93 | ±9.3% | 29.86–36.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 32.93 | ±9.3% | 29.86–36.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 33.49 | ±9.7% | 30.25–36.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 33.65 | ±8.2% | 30.88–36.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 34.07 | ±9.9% | 30.70–37.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 34.60 | ±10.3% | 31.05–38.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 35.67 | ±10.1% | 32.08–39.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 34.84 | ±9.8% | 31.44–38.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 35.84 | ±9.2% | 32.55–39.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 37.14 | ±10.5% | 33.25–41.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 37.15 | ±10.5% | 33.26–41.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 36.84 | ±10.8% | 32.88–40.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 37.07 | ±12.5% | 32.44–41.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 37.10 | ±12.3% | 32.55–41.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 37.33 | ±12.8% | 32.56–42.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 33.19 | ±6.8% | 30.93–35.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 33.50 | ±6.8% | 31.22–35.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 32.91 | ±7.1% | 30.56–35.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 32.66 | ±7.2% | 30.31–35.01 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 33.50 → 33.50 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 32.91 → 33.50 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +2.6% | dentro | 32.66 → 33.50 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +2.9% | dentro | 32.57 → 33.50 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +3.1% | dentro | 32.49 → 33.50 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +5.0% | fora | 31.89 → 33.50 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +2.4% | dentro | 32.72 → 33.50 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +2.2% | dentro | 32.78 → 33.50 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +4.9% | fora | 31.95 → 33.50 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +5.1% | dentro | 31.86 → 33.50 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +1.7% | dentro | 32.93 → 33.50 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +1.7% | dentro | 32.93 → 33.50 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 33.49 → 33.50 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 33.65 → 33.50 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -1.7% | dentro | 34.07 → 33.50 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -3.2% | dentro | 34.60 → 33.50 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -6.1% | dentro | 35.67 → 33.50 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -3.9% | dentro | 34.84 → 33.50 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -6.5% | dentro | 35.84 → 33.50 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -9.8% | fora | 37.14 → 33.50 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -9.8% | fora | 37.15 → 33.50 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -9.1% | dentro | 36.84 → 33.50 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -9.6% | fora | 37.07 → 33.50 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -9.7% | fora | 37.10 → 33.50 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -10.3% | fora | 37.33 → 33.50 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -11.1% | fora | 37.70 → 33.50 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -9.0% | dentro | 36.80 → 33.50 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -9.0% | dentro | 36.81 → 33.50 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 32.57 → 32.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 32.49 → 32.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 31.89 → 32.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -0.5% | dentro | 32.72 → 32.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -0.7% | dentro | 32.78 → 32.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +1.9% | dentro | 31.95 → 32.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +2.2% | dentro | 31.86 → 32.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 32.93 → 32.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 32.93 → 32.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 33.49 → 32.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -3.3% | dentro | 33.65 → 32.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -4.5% | dentro | 34.07 → 32.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -5.9% | dentro | 34.60 → 32.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -8.7% | fora | 35.67 → 32.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -6.6% | dentro | 34.84 → 32.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -9.2% | fora | 35.84 → 32.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -12.4% | fora | 37.14 → 32.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -12.4% | fora | 37.15 → 32.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -11.6% | fora | 36.84 → 32.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -12.2% | fora | 37.07 → 32.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -12.3% | fora | 37.10 → 32.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -12.8% | fora | 37.33 → 32.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -13.7% | fora | 37.70 → 32.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -11.5% | fora | 36.80 → 32.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -11.6% | fora | 36.81 → 32.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 31.95 → 31.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -0.0% | dentro | 31.86 → 31.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 32.93 → 31.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 32.93 → 31.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -4.9% | dentro | 33.49 → 31.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -5.3% | dentro | 33.65 → 31.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -6.5% | fora | 34.07 → 31.85 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.