HAL historial de movimiento esperado Halliburton Company
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango41%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado40%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.8%
Error medio abs.2.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 33.50 | ±0.6% | 33.30–33.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 32.91 | ±2.6% | 32.07–33.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 32.66 | ±3.0% | 31.69–33.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 32.57 | ±3.8% | 31.33–33.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 32.49 | ±4.2% | 31.13–33.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 31.89 | ±4.3% | 30.51–33.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 32.72 | ±4.6% | 31.23–34.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 32.78 | ±4.6% | 31.27–34.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 31.95 | ±4.8% | 30.41–33.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 31.86 | ±5.6% | 30.07–33.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 32.93 | ±7.4% | 30.50–35.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 32.93 | ±7.4% | 30.50–35.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 33.49 | ±7.5% | 30.97–36.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 33.65 | ±7.5% | 31.11–36.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 34.07 | ±8.0% | 31.33–36.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 34.60 | ±8.8% | 31.57–37.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 35.67 | ±8.4% | 32.67–38.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 34.84 | ±8.3% | 31.95–37.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 35.84 | ±8.7% | 32.73–38.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 37.14 | ±9.1% | 33.77–40.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 37.15 | ±9.1% | 33.78–40.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 36.84 | ±9.2% | 33.45–40.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 37.07 | ±9.3% | 33.62–40.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 37.10 | ±9.3% | 33.65–40.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 37.33 | ±9.2% | 33.88–40.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 37.70 | ±9.8% | 34.02–41.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 36.80 | ±10.0% | 33.10–40.49 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 36.81 | ±10.2% | 33.07–40.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 33.50 | ±5.7% | 31.59–35.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 32.91 | ±5.9% | 30.96–34.86 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 32.57 → 32.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 32.49 → 32.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.1% | dentro | 31.89 → 32.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -0.5% | dentro | 32.72 → 32.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -0.7% | dentro | 32.78 → 32.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +1.9% | dentro | 31.95 → 32.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +2.2% | dentro | 31.86 → 32.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 32.93 → 32.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 32.93 → 32.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 33.49 → 32.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -3.3% | dentro | 33.65 → 32.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -4.5% | dentro | 34.07 → 32.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -5.9% | dentro | 34.60 → 32.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -8.7% | fuera | 35.67 → 32.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -6.6% | dentro | 34.84 → 32.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -9.2% | fuera | 35.84 → 32.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -12.4% | fuera | 37.14 → 32.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -12.4% | fuera | 37.15 → 32.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -11.6% | fuera | 36.84 → 32.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -12.2% | fuera | 37.07 → 32.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -12.3% | fuera | 37.10 → 32.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -12.8% | fuera | 37.33 → 32.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -13.7% | fuera | 37.70 → 32.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -11.5% | fuera | 36.80 → 32.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -11.6% | fuera | 36.81 → 32.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 31.95 → 31.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -0.0% | dentro | 31.86 → 31.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 32.93 → 31.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 32.93 → 31.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -4.9% | dentro | 33.49 → 31.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -5.3% | dentro | 33.65 → 31.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -6.5% | fuera | 34.07 → 31.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -7.9% | fuera | 34.60 → 31.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -10.7% | fuera | 35.67 → 31.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -8.6% | fuera | 34.84 → 31.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -11.1% | fuera | 35.84 → 31.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -14.2% | fuera | 37.14 → 31.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -14.3% | fuera | 37.15 → 31.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -13.5% | fuera | 36.84 → 31.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -14.1% | fuera | 37.07 → 31.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -14.2% | fuera | 37.10 → 31.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -14.7% | fuera | 37.33 → 31.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -15.5% | fuera | 37.70 → 31.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -13.5% | fuera | 36.80 → 31.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -13.5% | fuera | 36.81 → 31.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 32.93 → 32.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 32.93 → 32.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.4% | -2.2% | dentro | 33.49 → 32.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 33.65 → 32.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -3.8% | dentro | 34.07 → 32.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -5.3% | fuera | 34.60 → 32.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -8.2% | fuera | 35.67 → 32.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -6.0% | fuera | 34.84 → 32.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -8.6% | fuera | 35.84 → 32.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.0% | -11.8% | fuera | 37.14 → 32.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -11.8% | fuera | 37.15 → 32.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -11.1% | fuera | 36.84 → 32.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -11.6% | fuera | 37.07 → 32.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | -11.7% | fuera | 37.10 → 32.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.8% | -12.2% | fuera | 37.33 → 32.76 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.