GS historial de movimiento esperado The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango39%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado39%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.1%
Error medio abs.2.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 878.68 | ±0.4% | 875.57–881.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 878.27 | ±2.2% | 858.64–897.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 892.22 | ±2.8% | 866.82–917.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 895.69 | ±4.7% | 853.39–937.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 882.51 | ±4.8% | 840.56–924.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 887.50 | ±4.7% | 846.00–929.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 899.00 | ±5.1% | 852.98–945.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 895.00 | ±5.4% | 847.02–942.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 902.19 | ±5.8% | 849.69–954.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 897.00 | ±6.0% | 843.08–950.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 950.50 | ±7.1% | 883.05–1,017.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 950.00 | ±7.1% | 882.55–1,017.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 959.06 | ±7.2% | 890.46–1,027.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 942.50 | ±7.5% | 872.08–1,012.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 950.01 | ±7.6% | 877.43–1,022.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 937.40 | ±8.5% | 858.15–1,016.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 976.09 | ±8.4% | 894.21–1,057.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 989.00 | ±8.6% | 904.33–1,073.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 1,028.06 | ±8.5% | 940.44–1,115.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 1,019.83 | ±8.8% | 929.83–1,109.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 1,030.84 | ±9.0% | 938.01–1,123.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 1,036.00 | ±9.1% | 941.77–1,130.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 1,037.94 | ±9.2% | 942.84–1,133.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 1,039.40 | ±9.2% | 944.30–1,134.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 1,039.76 | ±8.9% | 946.71–1,132.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 1,004.90 | ±9.0% | 914.25–1,095.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 1,005.00 | ±9.3% | 911.55–1,098.45 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 1,027.88 | ±9.0% | 935.71–1,120.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 878.68 | ±3.4% | 849.08–908.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 878.27 | ±4.1% | 842.07–914.47 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 895.69 → 895.32 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +1.5% | fuera | 882.51 → 895.32 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 887.50 → 895.32 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -0.4% | dentro | 899.00 → 895.32 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 895.00 → 895.32 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 902.19 → 895.32 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.2% | dentro | 897.00 → 895.32 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.8% | fuera | 950.50 → 895.32 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.8% | fuera | 950.00 → 895.32 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -6.6% | fuera | 959.06 → 895.32 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -5.0% | dentro | 942.50 → 895.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -5.8% | dentro | 950.01 → 895.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -4.5% | dentro | 937.40 → 895.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -8.3% | fuera | 976.09 → 895.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -9.5% | fuera | 989.00 → 895.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -12.9% | fuera | 1,028.06 → 895.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -12.2% | fuera | 1,019.83 → 895.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -13.1% | fuera | 1,030.84 → 895.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -13.6% | fuera | 1,036.00 → 895.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -13.7% | fuera | 1,037.94 → 895.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -13.9% | fuera | 1,039.40 → 895.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -13.9% | fuera | 1,039.76 → 895.32 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -10.9% | fuera | 1,004.90 → 895.32 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -10.9% | fuera | 1,005.00 → 895.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -12.9% | fuera | 1,027.88 → 895.32 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 902.19 → 902.56 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | +0.6% | dentro | 897.00 → 902.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -5.0% | fuera | 950.50 → 902.56 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -5.0% | fuera | 950.00 → 902.56 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -5.9% | fuera | 959.06 → 902.56 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.2% | dentro | 942.50 → 902.56 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -5.0% | fuera | 950.01 → 902.56 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -3.7% | dentro | 937.40 → 902.56 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -7.5% | fuera | 976.09 → 902.56 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -8.7% | fuera | 989.00 → 902.56 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -12.2% | fuera | 1,028.06 → 902.56 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -11.5% | fuera | 1,019.83 → 902.56 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -12.4% | fuera | 1,030.84 → 902.56 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -12.9% | fuera | 1,036.00 → 902.56 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -13.0% | fuera | 1,037.94 → 902.56 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -13.2% | fuera | 1,039.40 → 902.56 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -13.2% | fuera | 1,039.76 → 902.56 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -10.2% | fuera | 1,004.90 → 902.56 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -10.2% | fuera | 1,005.00 → 902.56 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -12.2% | fuera | 1,027.88 → 902.56 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | -1.6% | dentro | 950.50 → 935.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | -1.5% | dentro | 950.00 → 935.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | -2.5% | dentro | 959.06 → 935.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -0.7% | dentro | 942.50 → 935.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -1.5% | dentro | 950.01 → 935.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 937.40 → 935.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -4.2% | dentro | 976.09 → 935.45 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -5.4% | fuera | 989.00 → 935.45 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -9.0% | fuera | 1,028.06 → 935.45 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -8.3% | fuera | 1,019.83 → 935.45 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -9.3% | fuera | 1,030.84 → 935.45 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -9.7% | fuera | 1,036.00 → 935.45 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -9.9% | fuera | 1,037.94 → 935.45 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -10.0% | fuera | 1,039.40 → 935.45 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -10.0% | fuera | 1,039.76 → 935.45 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.