GOOGL historial de movimiento esperado Alphabet Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango83%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado83%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.0%
Error medio abs.2.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 344.57 | ±0.3% | 343.64–345.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 340.59 | ±1.8% | 334.57–346.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 347.35 | ±2.6% | 338.18–356.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 354.03 | ±2.9% | 343.78–364.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 351.71 | ±3.2% | 340.33–363.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 348.80 | ±3.9% | 335.07–362.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 350.20 | ±4.1% | 335.75–364.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 347.93 | ±4.2% | 333.33–362.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 346.35 | ±4.0% | 332.60–360.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 344.57 | ±2.0% | 337.81–351.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 340.59 | ±2.8% | 331.21–349.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 347.35 | ±3.4% | 335.57–359.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 354.03 | ±3.7% | 340.98–367.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 351.71 | ±4.1% | 337.41–366.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 348.80 | ±4.4% | 333.62–363.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 350.20 | ±4.7% | 333.80–366.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 347.93 | ±4.5% | 332.15–363.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 344.57 | ±2.8% | 334.97–354.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 340.59 | ±3.4% | 328.96–352.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 347.35 | ±3.9% | 333.70–361.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 354.03 | ±4.2% | 339.28–368.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 351.71 | ±4.4% | 336.29–367.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 348.80 | ±4.8% | 332.10–365.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 350.20 | ±5.1% | 332.48–367.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 347.93 | ±5.2% | 329.73–366.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 346.35 | ±5.0% | 329.02–363.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 343.25 | ±5.5% | 324.25–362.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 339.10 | ±5.7% | 319.82–358.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 351.80 | ±7.2% | 326.48–377.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 352.04 | ±7.2% | 326.71–377.37 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 340.59 → 340.59 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 347.35 → 340.59 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | -3.8% | fuera | 354.03 → 340.59 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -3.2% | fuera | 351.71 → 340.59 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -2.4% | dentro | 348.80 → 340.59 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -2.7% | dentro | 350.20 → 340.59 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -2.1% | dentro | 347.93 → 340.59 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -1.7% | dentro | 346.35 → 340.59 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -0.8% | dentro | 343.25 → 340.59 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +0.4% | dentro | 339.10 → 340.59 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -3.2% | dentro | 351.80 → 340.59 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -3.3% | dentro | 352.04 → 340.59 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -4.3% | dentro | 355.83 → 340.59 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -2.8% | dentro | 350.25 → 340.59 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -1.7% | dentro | 346.54 → 340.59 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -0.8% | dentro | 343.41 → 340.59 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 344.14 → 340.59 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 347.96 → 340.59 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +0.7% | dentro | 338.35 → 340.59 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +2.7% | dentro | 331.62 → 340.59 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +2.9% | dentro | 331.08 → 340.59 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +0.7% | dentro | 338.25 → 340.59 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.6% | dentro | 338.72 → 340.59 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.5% | dentro | 339.01 → 340.59 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -0.6% | dentro | 342.80 → 340.59 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +0.9% | dentro | 337.71 → 340.59 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +0.9% | dentro | 337.70 → 340.59 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +0.1% | dentro | 340.10 → 340.59 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 347.35 → 347.64 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.8% | -1.8% | dentro | 354.03 → 347.64 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 351.71 → 347.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.9% | -0.3% | dentro | 348.80 → 347.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | -0.7% | dentro | 350.20 → 347.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 347.93 → 347.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 346.35 → 347.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | +1.3% | dentro | 343.25 → 347.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.3% | +2.5% | dentro | 339.10 → 347.64 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 351.71 → 352.72 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | +1.1% | dentro | 348.80 → 352.72 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.5% | +0.7% | dentro | 350.20 → 352.72 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.6% | +1.4% | dentro | 347.93 → 352.72 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | +1.8% | dentro | 346.35 → 352.72 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.1% | +2.8% | dentro | 343.25 → 352.72 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.6% | +4.0% | fuera | 339.10 → 352.72 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 351.71 → 351.66 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | +0.8% | dentro | 348.80 → 351.66 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 350.20 → 351.66 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 347.93 → 351.66 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 346.35 → 351.66 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.5% | dentro | 343.25 → 351.66 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +3.7% | fuera | 339.10 → 351.66 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 351.80 → 351.66 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 352.04 → 351.66 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 355.83 → 351.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 350.25 → 351.66 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +1.5% | dentro | 346.54 → 351.66 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +2.4% | dentro | 343.41 → 351.66 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +2.2% | dentro | 344.14 → 351.66 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +1.1% | dentro | 347.96 → 351.66 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.9% | dentro | 338.35 → 351.66 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.