GM 预期波动历史 General Motors Company
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内68%
|实际值| 低于预期值68%
平均预期波动幅度±5.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.6%
平均绝对误差2.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 82.75 | ±5.8% | 77.97–87.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 83.51 | ±6.3% | 78.22–88.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 83.05 | ±6.8% | 77.44–88.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 84.03 | ±6.9% | 78.21–89.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 82.30 | ±6.9% | 76.61–87.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 82.42 | ±7.5% | 76.20–88.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 80.99 | ±8.2% | 74.38–87.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 82.01 | ±8.0% | 75.47–88.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 80.23 | ±7.8% | 73.98–86.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 78.27 | ±7.9% | 72.07–84.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 79.31 | ±9.2% | 72.03–86.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 83.55 | ±9.4% | 75.70–91.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 83.55 | ±9.4% | 75.70–91.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 83.80 | ±10.0% | 75.40–92.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 82.45 | ±9.6% | 74.53–90.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 86.50 | ±10.9% | 77.05–95.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 84.29 | ±9.8% | 76.03–92.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 85.37 | ±9.8% | 76.97–93.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 86.97 | ±9.7% | 78.57–95.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 85.62 | ±10.3% | 76.77–94.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 86.12 | ±10.6% | 77.00–95.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 84.58 | ±10.8% | 75.43–93.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 85.37 | ±11.3% | 75.75–95.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 87.52 | ±10.4% | 78.40–96.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 87.76 | ±10.4% | 78.64–96.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 87.22 | ±10.4% | 78.14–96.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 82.75 | ±6.9% | 77.04–88.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 83.51 | ±8.3% | 76.59–90.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 83.05 | ±8.5% | 76.00–90.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 84.03 | ±8.6% | 76.83–91.23 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.2% | +0.5% | 区间外 | 83.51 → 83.96 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 83.05 → 83.96 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 84.03 → 83.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 82.30 → 83.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 82.42 → 83.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 80.99 → 83.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 82.01 → 83.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 80.23 → 83.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 78.27 → 83.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 79.31 → 83.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 83.55 → 83.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 83.55 → 83.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 83.80 → 83.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 82.45 → 83.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 86.50 → 83.96 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 84.29 → 83.96 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 85.37 → 83.96 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 86.97 → 83.96 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 85.62 → 83.96 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 86.12 → 83.96 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 84.58 → 83.96 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 85.37 → 83.96 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 87.52 → 83.96 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 87.76 → 83.96 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 87.22 → 83.96 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 84.87 → 83.96 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 85.63 → 83.96 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 86.38 → 83.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 82.30 → 82.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 82.42 → 82.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.1% | 区间外 | 80.99 → 82.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 82.01 → 82.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 80.23 → 82.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +5.7% | 区间外 | 78.27 → 82.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 79.31 → 82.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 83.55 → 82.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 83.55 → 82.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 83.80 → 82.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 82.45 → 82.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 86.50 → 82.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 84.29 → 82.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 85.37 → 82.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 86.97 → 82.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 85.62 → 82.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 86.12 → 82.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 84.58 → 82.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 85.37 → 82.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 87.52 → 82.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 87.76 → 82.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 87.22 → 82.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 84.87 → 82.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 85.63 → 82.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 86.38 → 82.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 78.27 → 78.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 79.31 → 78.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 83.55 → 78.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.3% | 区间外 | 83.55 → 78.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 83.80 → 78.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 82.45 → 78.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -9.5% | 区间外 | 86.50 → 78.27 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.