GM histórico de movimento esperado General Motors Company
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo62%
|Real| abaixo do esperado62%
Movimento esperado médio±4.7%
Movimento |real| médio3.9%
Erro médio absoluto2.0pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 83.51 | ±0.2% | 83.32–83.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 83.05 | ±2.2% | 81.23–84.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 84.03 | ±2.7% | 81.77–86.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 82.30 | ±3.2% | 79.64–84.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 82.42 | ±3.7% | 79.37–85.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 80.99 | ±4.1% | 77.66–84.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 82.01 | ±4.4% | 78.41–85.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 80.23 | ±4.5% | 76.65–83.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 78.27 | ±4.9% | 74.44–82.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 79.31 | ±5.1% | 75.24–83.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 83.55 | ±6.9% | 77.78–89.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 83.55 | ±6.9% | 77.78–89.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 83.80 | ±6.9% | 78.02–89.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 82.45 | ±7.4% | 76.37–88.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 86.50 | ±6.9% | 80.56–92.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 84.29 | ±7.5% | 78.00–90.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 85.37 | ±7.5% | 78.98–91.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 86.97 | ±7.7% | 80.27–93.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 85.62 | ±8.0% | 78.80–92.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 86.12 | ±8.3% | 79.00–93.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 84.58 | ±8.2% | 77.66–91.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 85.37 | ±8.4% | 78.23–92.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 87.52 | ±8.4% | 80.20–94.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 87.76 | ±8.3% | 80.44–95.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 87.22 | ±8.4% | 79.87–94.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 84.87 | ±8.3% | 77.82–91.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 85.63 | ±8.7% | 78.20–93.06 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 86.38 | ±8.7% | 78.83–93.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 83.51 | ±6.3% | 78.22–88.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 83.05 | ±6.8% | 77.44–88.66 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.5% | dentro | 82.30 → 82.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +0.4% | dentro | 82.42 → 82.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.1% | fora | 80.99 → 82.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 82.01 → 82.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +3.1% | fora | 80.23 → 82.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +5.7% | fora | 78.27 → 82.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +4.3% | fora | 79.31 → 82.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.0% | dentro | 83.55 → 82.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.0% | dentro | 83.55 → 82.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -1.3% | dentro | 83.80 → 82.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 82.45 → 82.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -4.4% | dentro | 86.50 → 82.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -1.9% | dentro | 84.29 → 82.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -3.1% | dentro | 85.37 → 82.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -4.9% | dentro | 86.97 → 82.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -3.4% | dentro | 85.62 → 82.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -3.9% | dentro | 86.12 → 82.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -2.2% | dentro | 84.58 → 82.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -3.1% | dentro | 85.37 → 82.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -5.5% | dentro | 87.52 → 82.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -5.7% | dentro | 87.76 → 82.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -5.1% | dentro | 87.22 → 82.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -2.5% | dentro | 84.87 → 82.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -3.4% | dentro | 85.63 → 82.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -4.2% | dentro | 86.38 → 82.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 78.27 → 78.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 79.31 → 78.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.3% | fora | 83.55 → 78.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -6.3% | fora | 83.55 → 78.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -6.6% | fora | 83.80 → 78.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -5.1% | dentro | 82.45 → 78.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -9.5% | fora | 86.50 → 78.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -7.1% | fora | 84.29 → 78.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -8.3% | fora | 85.37 → 78.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -10.0% | fora | 86.97 → 78.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -8.6% | fora | 85.62 → 78.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -9.1% | fora | 86.12 → 78.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -7.5% | fora | 84.58 → 78.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -8.3% | fora | 85.37 → 78.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -10.6% | fora | 87.52 → 78.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -10.8% | fora | 87.76 → 78.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -10.3% | fora | 87.22 → 78.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -7.8% | fora | 84.87 → 78.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -8.6% | fora | 85.63 → 78.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -9.4% | fora | 86.38 → 78.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 83.55 → 82.63 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 83.55 → 82.63 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | -1.4% | dentro | 83.80 → 82.63 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | +0.2% | dentro | 82.45 → 82.63 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -4.5% | fora | 86.50 → 82.63 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -2.0% | dentro | 84.29 → 82.63 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -3.2% | dentro | 85.37 → 82.63 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -5.0% | fora | 86.97 → 82.63 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -3.5% | dentro | 85.62 → 82.63 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -4.1% | dentro | 86.12 → 82.63 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -2.3% | dentro | 84.58 → 82.63 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -3.2% | dentro | 85.37 → 82.63 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -5.6% | dentro | 87.52 → 82.63 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -5.8% | fora | 87.76 → 82.63 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | -5.3% | dentro | 87.22 → 82.63 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.