GLD histórico de movimento esperado SPDR Gold Shares
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas200
Fechar dentro do intervalo63%
|Real| abaixo do esperado63%
Movimento esperado médio±3.2%
Movimento |real| médio2.7%
Erro médio absoluto1.4pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 379.70 | ±0.2% | 379.07–380.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 381.88 | ±0.9% | 378.27–385.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 376.08 | ±1.7% | 369.58–382.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 381.54 | ±1.9% | 374.29–388.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 384.70 | ±2.3% | 375.77–393.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 378.80 | ±2.5% | 369.27–388.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 376.96 | ±2.8% | 366.51–387.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 381.95 | ±2.8% | 371.38–392.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 379.67 | ±2.9% | 368.75–390.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 20 | 1 | 379.70 | ±0.8% | 376.84–382.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 20 | 4 | 381.88 | ±1.3% | 377.01–386.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 20 | 6 | 376.08 | ±1.9% | 368.86–383.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 20 | 7 | 381.54 | ±2.1% | 373.69–389.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 20 | 11 | 384.70 | ±2.5% | 375.20–394.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 20 | 12 | 378.80 | ±2.6% | 368.77–388.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 20 | 13 | 376.96 | ±2.9% | 365.96–387.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 20 | 14 | 381.95 | ±3.0% | 370.62–393.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 379.70 | ±1.1% | 375.59–383.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 381.88 | ±1.5% | 376.02–387.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 376.08 | ±2.1% | 368.13–384.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 381.54 | ±2.2% | 373.12–389.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 384.70 | ±2.6% | 374.57–394.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 378.80 | ±2.8% | 368.10–389.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 376.96 | ±3.1% | 365.38–388.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 381.95 | ±3.1% | 369.95–393.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 22 | 3 | 379.70 | ±1.3% | 374.60–384.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 22 | 6 | 381.88 | ±1.8% | 375.11–388.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 22 | 8 | 376.08 | ±2.3% | 367.38–384.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 22 | 9 | 381.54 | ±2.4% | 372.54–390.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 22 | 13 | 384.70 | ±2.8% | 374.00–395.40 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 381.88 → 382.01 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +1.6% | fora | 376.08 → 382.01 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 381.54 → 382.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 384.70 → 382.01 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +0.8% | dentro | 378.80 → 382.01 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 376.96 → 382.01 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 381.95 → 382.01 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +0.6% | dentro | 379.67 → 382.01 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +0.5% | dentro | 380.20 → 382.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 382.40 → 382.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -4.5% | fora | 400.07 → 382.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -4.4% | fora | 399.65 → 382.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -4.1% | dentro | 398.36 → 382.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -4.8% | fora | 401.46 → 382.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 398.39 → 382.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -2.4% | dentro | 391.28 → 382.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -3.0% | dentro | 393.86 → 382.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -3.1% | dentro | 394.10 → 382.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -4.2% | dentro | 398.70 → 382.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -3.5% | dentro | 396.05 → 382.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -5.4% | dentro | 403.93 → 382.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -4.4% | dentro | 399.72 → 382.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -6.1% | dentro | 406.77 → 382.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -6.0% | dentro | 406.30 → 382.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -6.9% | fora | 410.23 → 382.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -5.1% | dentro | 402.36 → 382.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -3.8% | dentro | 397.20 → 382.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -6.5% | fora | 408.51 → 382.01 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.0% | +1.8% | fora | 376.08 → 382.71 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 381.54 → 382.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±1.9% | -0.5% | dentro | 384.70 → 382.71 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.1% | +1.0% | dentro | 378.80 → 382.71 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 376.96 → 382.71 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 381.95 → 382.71 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.6% | +0.8% | dentro | 379.67 → 382.71 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±2.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 380.20 → 382.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 15 | ±3.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 382.40 → 382.71 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 376.08 → 375.99 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.2% | -1.5% | fora | 381.54 → 375.99 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.7% | -2.3% | fora | 384.70 → 375.99 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | -0.7% | dentro | 378.80 → 375.99 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 376.96 → 375.99 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.3% | -1.6% | dentro | 381.95 → 375.99 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | -1.0% | dentro | 379.67 → 375.99 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 380.20 → 375.99 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.9% | -1.7% | dentro | 382.40 → 375.99 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 381.54 → 381.67 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.2% | -0.8% | dentro | 384.70 → 381.67 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.5% | +0.8% | dentro | 378.80 → 381.67 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 376.96 → 381.67 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±1.9% | -0.1% | dentro | 381.95 → 381.67 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.0% | +0.5% | dentro | 379.67 → 381.67 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.4% | +0.4% | dentro | 380.20 → 381.67 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 13 | ±2.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 382.40 → 381.67 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±0.9% | -0.7% | dentro | 384.70 → 382.15 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.3% | +0.9% | dentro | 378.80 → 382.15 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.6% | +1.4% | dentro | 376.96 → 382.15 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 381.95 → 382.15 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 379.67 → 382.15 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.2% | +0.5% | dentro | 380.20 → 382.15 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.