GIS historial de movimiento esperado General Mills, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango53%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado53%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.1%
Error medio abs.2.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 32.57 | ±7.6% | 30.09–35.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 33.07 | ±8.2% | 30.34–35.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 32.11 | ±8.2% | 29.48–34.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 31.98 | ±8.1% | 29.38–34.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 32.36 | ±8.1% | 29.73–34.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 32.61 | ±8.4% | 29.89–35.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 31.86 | ±8.9% | 29.01–34.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 32.23 | ±9.0% | 29.33–35.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 31.73 | ±9.8% | 28.63–34.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 32.01 | ±9.4% | 29.01–35.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 31.73 | ±10.1% | 28.53–34.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 35.48 | ±10.2% | 31.86–39.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 35.52 | ±10.2% | 31.89–39.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 35.55 | ±10.6% | 31.77–39.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 36.54 | ±11.8% | 32.22–40.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 36.85 | ±12.2% | 32.35–41.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 32.57 | ±10.6% | 29.12–36.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 33.07 | ±11.2% | 29.37–36.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 32.11 | ±11.2% | 28.51–35.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Dec 18 | 66 | 31.98 | ±11.1% | 28.43–35.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Dec 18 | 70 | 32.36 | ±11.4% | 28.68–36.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Dec 18 | 71 | 32.61 | ±11.6% | 28.84–36.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Dec 18 | 72 | 31.86 | ±12.0% | 28.04–35.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Dec 18 | 73 | 32.23 | ±11.9% | 28.38–36.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Dec 18 | 74 | 31.73 | ±11.8% | 27.98–35.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Dec 18 | 77 | 32.01 | ±12.2% | 28.11–35.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Dec 18 | 78 | 31.73 | ±13.3% | 27.50–35.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Dec 18 | 86 | 35.48 | ±12.0% | 31.21–39.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Dec 18 | 87 | 35.52 | ±12.0% | 31.25–39.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Dec 18 | 88 | 35.55 | ±12.7% | 31.05–40.05 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +0.2% | dentro | 33.07 → 33.13 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +3.2% | fuera | 32.11 → 33.13 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +3.6% | fuera | 31.98 → 33.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +2.4% | dentro | 32.36 → 33.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +1.6% | dentro | 32.61 → 33.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +4.0% | dentro | 31.86 → 33.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.8% | dentro | 32.23 → 33.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +4.4% | dentro | 31.73 → 33.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 32.01 → 33.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +4.4% | dentro | 31.73 → 33.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -6.6% | dentro | 35.48 → 33.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -6.7% | dentro | 35.52 → 33.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -6.8% | dentro | 35.55 → 33.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -9.3% | fuera | 36.54 → 33.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -10.1% | fuera | 36.85 → 33.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -10.2% | fuera | 36.89 → 33.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -9.4% | fuera | 36.58 → 33.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -9.1% | dentro | 36.45 → 33.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -7.9% | dentro | 35.96 → 33.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -7.5% | dentro | 35.81 → 33.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -10.7% | fuera | 37.11 → 33.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -12.4% | fuera | 37.80 → 33.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -13.6% | fuera | 38.35 → 33.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -13.9% | fuera | 38.46 → 33.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -15.6% | fuera | 39.27 → 33.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -18.6% | fuera | 40.69 → 33.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -19.4% | fuera | 41.09 → 33.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -20.5% | fuera | 41.66 → 33.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -0.6% | dentro | 36.54 → 36.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -1.4% | dentro | 36.85 → 36.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -1.5% | dentro | 36.89 → 36.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -0.7% | dentro | 36.58 → 36.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 36.45 → 36.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 35.96 → 36.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 35.81 → 36.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.4% | -2.1% | dentro | 37.11 → 36.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.0% | -3.9% | dentro | 37.80 → 36.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.6% | -5.3% | fuera | 38.35 → 36.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.1% | -5.6% | fuera | 38.46 → 36.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.2% | -7.5% | fuera | 39.27 → 36.32 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -10.7% | fuera | 40.69 → 36.32 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -11.6% | fuera | 41.09 → 36.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.5% | -12.8% | fuera | 41.66 → 36.32 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.