GILD historial de movimiento esperado Gilead Sciences, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango75%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado75%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.9%
Error medio abs.2.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 153.07 | ±2.9% | 148.60–157.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 156.31 | ±3.7% | 150.47–162.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 153.54 | ±4.4% | 146.84–160.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 147.92 | ±4.1% | 141.79–154.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 151.17 | ±4.7% | 144.07–158.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 146.94 | ±4.9% | 139.72–154.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 146.85 | ±4.8% | 139.74–153.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 144.23 | ±5.1% | 136.91–151.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 143.98 | ±5.1% | 136.58–151.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 144.74 | ±4.8% | 137.75–151.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 147.69 | ±5.6% | 139.49–155.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 152.86 | ±6.4% | 143.09–162.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 152.67 | ±6.4% | 142.90–162.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 150.56 | ±6.4% | 140.98–160.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 150.50 | ±6.8% | 140.20–160.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 149.93 | ±6.9% | 139.63–160.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 147.18 | ±7.3% | 136.41–157.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 145.64 | ±7.2% | 135.12–156.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 146.53 | ±7.6% | 135.41–157.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 144.02 | ±7.2% | 133.59–154.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 144.72 | ±7.5% | 133.79–155.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 145.88 | ±7.7% | 134.59–157.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 146.56 | ±8.0% | 134.86–158.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 149.77 | ±8.0% | 137.82–161.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 151.00 | ±7.9% | 139.04–162.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 151.36 | ±8.0% | 139.26–163.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 153.07 | ±6.6% | 143.00–163.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 156.31 | ±6.9% | 145.59–167.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 153.54 | ±6.4% | 143.67–163.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 147.92 | ±5.8% | 139.32–156.52 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 156.31 → 156.19 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +1.7% | dentro | 153.54 → 156.19 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +5.6% | fuera | 147.92 → 156.19 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +3.3% | fuera | 151.17 → 156.19 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +6.3% | fuera | 146.94 → 156.19 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +6.4% | fuera | 146.85 → 156.19 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +8.3% | fuera | 144.23 → 156.19 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +8.5% | fuera | 143.98 → 156.19 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +7.9% | fuera | 144.74 → 156.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +5.8% | fuera | 147.69 → 156.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.2% | dentro | 152.86 → 156.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.3% | dentro | 152.67 → 156.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.7% | dentro | 150.56 → 156.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +3.8% | dentro | 150.50 → 156.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +4.2% | dentro | 149.93 → 156.19 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +6.1% | dentro | 147.18 → 156.19 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.2% | fuera | 145.64 → 156.19 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +6.6% | fuera | 146.53 → 156.19 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +8.4% | fuera | 144.02 → 156.19 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +7.9% | fuera | 144.72 → 156.19 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +7.1% | dentro | 145.88 → 156.19 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +6.6% | dentro | 146.56 → 156.19 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +4.3% | dentro | 149.77 → 156.19 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +3.4% | dentro | 151.00 → 156.19 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +3.2% | dentro | 151.36 → 156.19 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +4.4% | dentro | 149.59 → 156.19 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +4.2% | dentro | 149.92 → 156.19 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +6.7% | dentro | 146.36 → 156.19 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 151.17 → 151.17 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +2.9% | fuera | 146.94 → 151.17 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.9% | fuera | 146.85 → 151.17 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +4.8% | fuera | 144.23 → 151.17 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +5.0% | fuera | 143.98 → 151.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +4.4% | fuera | 144.74 → 151.17 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.4% | dentro | 147.69 → 151.17 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -1.1% | dentro | 152.86 → 151.17 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 152.67 → 151.17 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 150.56 → 151.17 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +0.4% | dentro | 150.50 → 151.17 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 149.93 → 151.17 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +2.7% | dentro | 147.18 → 151.17 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +3.8% | dentro | 145.64 → 151.17 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +3.2% | dentro | 146.53 → 151.17 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +5.0% | dentro | 144.02 → 151.17 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +4.5% | dentro | 144.72 → 151.17 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +3.6% | dentro | 145.88 → 151.17 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +3.1% | dentro | 146.56 → 151.17 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 149.77 → 151.17 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 151.00 → 151.17 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 151.36 → 151.17 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +1.1% | dentro | 149.59 → 151.17 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 149.92 → 151.17 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +3.3% | dentro | 146.36 → 151.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 144.74 → 144.74 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -2.0% | fuera | 147.69 → 144.74 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -5.3% | fuera | 152.86 → 144.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -5.2% | fuera | 152.67 → 144.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -3.9% | dentro | 150.56 → 144.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -3.8% | dentro | 150.50 → 144.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -3.5% | dentro | 149.93 → 144.74 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.