GEV historial de movimiento esperado GE Vernova Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango83%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado83%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.2%
Error medio abs.3.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 908.95 | ±4.8% | 865.55–952.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 921.71 | ±5.7% | 869.11–974.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 939.00 | ±7.0% | 873.40–1,004.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 1,004.04 | ±6.4% | 939.79–1,068.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 1,003.01 | ±6.9% | 933.41–1,072.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 992.80 | ±7.5% | 918.45–1,067.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 997.00 | ±7.2% | 924.75–1,069.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 1,029.51 | ±7.6% | 951.21–1,107.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 990.50 | ±7.7% | 914.50–1,066.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 986.00 | ±8.5% | 901.90–1,070.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 986.89 | ±9.2% | 895.89–1,077.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 951.80 | ±10.6% | 851.05–1,052.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 950.31 | ±10.6% | 849.56–1,051.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 951.59 | ±11.0% | 846.49–1,056.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 936.25 | ±11.2% | 831.50–1,041.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 935.19 | ±11.6% | 826.64–1,043.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 927.80 | ±12.0% | 816.40–1,039.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 891.09 | ±11.8% | 786.19–995.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 875.10 | ±12.0% | 770.20–980.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 952.86 | ±12.0% | 838.36–1,067.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 926.15 | ±12.7% | 808.21–1,044.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 951.77 | ±12.9% | 829.17–1,074.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 970.30 | ±13.2% | 841.95–1,098.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 942.55 | ±13.0% | 819.95–1,065.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 940.70 | ±12.9% | 819.60–1,061.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 943.22 | ±13.1% | 819.57–1,066.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 908.95 | ±8.7% | 830.05–987.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 921.71 | ±9.5% | 833.86–1,009.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 939.00 | ±9.8% | 847.35–1,030.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 1,004.04 | ±9.7% | 906.24–1,101.84 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 921.71 → 921.20 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -1.9% | dentro | 939.00 → 921.20 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -8.3% | fuera | 1,004.04 → 921.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -8.2% | fuera | 1,003.01 → 921.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -7.2% | fuera | 992.80 → 921.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -7.6% | fuera | 997.00 → 921.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -10.5% | fuera | 1,029.51 → 921.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -7.0% | fuera | 990.50 → 921.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -6.6% | dentro | 986.00 → 921.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -6.7% | dentro | 986.89 → 921.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -3.2% | dentro | 951.80 → 921.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -3.1% | dentro | 950.31 → 921.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -3.2% | dentro | 951.59 → 921.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -1.6% | dentro | 936.25 → 921.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -1.5% | dentro | 935.19 → 921.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -0.7% | dentro | 927.80 → 921.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +3.4% | dentro | 891.09 → 921.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +5.3% | dentro | 875.10 → 921.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -3.3% | dentro | 952.86 → 921.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -0.5% | dentro | 926.15 → 921.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -3.2% | dentro | 951.77 → 921.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -5.1% | dentro | 970.30 → 921.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -2.3% | dentro | 942.55 → 921.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -2.1% | dentro | 940.70 → 921.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -2.3% | dentro | 943.22 → 921.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 919.00 → 921.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +2.7% | dentro | 897.28 → 921.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 899.99 → 921.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 1,003.01 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 992.80 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 997.00 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -2.4% | dentro | 1,029.51 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.4% | dentro | 990.50 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +1.9% | dentro | 986.00 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 986.89 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +5.6% | dentro | 951.80 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +5.7% | dentro | 950.31 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +5.6% | dentro | 951.59 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +7.3% | dentro | 936.25 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +7.4% | dentro | 935.19 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +8.3% | dentro | 927.80 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +12.8% | fuera | 891.09 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +14.8% | fuera | 875.10 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +5.4% | dentro | 952.86 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +8.5% | dentro | 926.15 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +5.6% | dentro | 951.77 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +3.5% | dentro | 970.30 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 942.55 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +6.8% | dentro | 940.70 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +6.5% | dentro | 943.22 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +9.3% | dentro | 919.00 → 1,004.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +12.0% | fuera | 897.28 → 1,004.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +11.6% | fuera | 899.99 → 1,004.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 986.00 → 988.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 986.89 → 988.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | +3.9% | dentro | 951.80 → 988.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | +4.0% | dentro | 950.31 → 988.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | +3.9% | dentro | 951.59 → 988.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | +5.6% | dentro | 936.25 → 988.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +5.7% | dentro | 935.19 → 988.70 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.