GDXJ 预期波动历史 VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内81%
|实际值| 低于预期值81%
平均预期波动幅度±7.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.2%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 109.25 | ±0.8% | 108.33–110.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 104.92 | ±3.3% | 101.45–108.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 110.55 | ±3.3% | 106.93–114.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 114.43 | ±4.4% | 109.44–119.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 110.91 | ±5.2% | 105.16–116.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 109.76 | ±5.5% | 103.74–115.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 113.55 | ±5.6% | 107.20–119.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 112.70 | ±5.9% | 106.00–119.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 113.00 | ±6.4% | 105.78–120.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 112.46 | ±7.1% | 104.51–120.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 122.68 | ±8.9% | 111.78–133.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 122.68 | ±8.9% | 111.78–133.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 122.40 | ±9.9% | 110.30–134.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 122.57 | ±10.7% | 109.44–135.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 123.72 | ±11.3% | 109.72–137.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 123.00 | ±10.8% | 109.70–136.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 119.03 | ±12.0% | 104.76–133.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 119.37 | ±12.4% | 104.55–134.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 124.10 | ±12.7% | 108.33–139.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 129.25 | ±13.2% | 112.25–146.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 129.03 | ±13.3% | 111.86–146.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 129.03 | ±13.3% | 111.86–146.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 129.03 | ±13.3% | 111.86–146.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 131.45 | ±13.6% | 113.55–149.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 131.45 | ±13.6% | 113.55–149.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 126.52 | ±14.0% | 108.80–144.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 123.73 | ±13.4% | 107.11–140.35 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 127.93 | ±14.5% | 109.41–146.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 109.25 | ±4.9% | 103.89–114.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 104.92 | ±5.9% | 98.75–111.08 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 114.43 → 114.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.2% | 区间外 | 110.91 → 114.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.2% | 区间外 | 109.76 → 114.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 113.55 → 114.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 112.70 → 114.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 113.00 → 114.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 112.46 → 114.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 122.68 → 114.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 122.68 → 114.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 122.40 → 114.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 122.57 → 114.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -7.5% | 区间内 | 123.72 → 114.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -7.0% | 区间内 | 123.00 → 114.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 119.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 119.37 → 114.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -7.8% | 区间内 | 124.10 → 114.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | -11.5% | 区间内 | 129.25 → 114.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | 区间内 | 129.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | 区间内 | 129.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | 区间内 | 129.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 131.45 → 114.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 131.45 → 114.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -9.6% | 区间内 | 126.52 → 114.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -7.5% | 区间内 | 123.73 → 114.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -10.6% | 区间内 | 127.93 → 114.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.6% | 区间外 | 113.00 → 113.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 112.46 → 113.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 122.68 → 113.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 122.68 → 113.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 122.40 → 113.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -7.3% | 区间内 | 122.57 → 113.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 123.72 → 113.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | -7.6% | 区间内 | 123.00 → 113.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -4.5% | 区间内 | 119.03 → 113.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 119.37 → 113.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -8.4% | 区间内 | 124.10 → 113.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | -12.1% | 区间外 | 129.25 → 113.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 129.03 → 113.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 129.03 → 113.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 129.03 → 113.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.1% | -13.5% | 区间外 | 131.45 → 113.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.1% | -13.5% | 区间外 | 131.45 → 113.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | -10.2% | 区间内 | 126.52 → 113.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.2% | -8.1% | 区间内 | 123.73 → 113.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.5% | -11.2% | 区间内 | 127.93 → 113.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 122.68 → 121.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 122.68 → 121.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 122.40 → 121.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 122.57 → 121.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 123.72 → 121.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 123.00 → 121.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 119.03 → 121.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 119.37 → 121.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.3% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 124.10 → 121.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 129.25 → 121.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 129.03 → 121.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 129.03 → 121.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 129.03 → 121.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -7.9% | 区间内 | 131.45 → 121.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.4% | -7.9% | 区间内 | 131.45 → 121.11 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.