GDXJ historial de movimiento esperado VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango77%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado77%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.0%
Error medio abs.2.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 108.52 | ±4.1% | 104.04–113.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 109.25 | ±4.9% | 103.89–114.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 104.92 | ±5.9% | 98.75–111.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 110.55 | ±5.4% | 104.58–116.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 114.43 | ±6.4% | 107.13–121.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 110.91 | ±7.4% | 102.69–119.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 109.76 | ±7.6% | 101.41–118.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 113.55 | ±7.2% | 105.33–121.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 112.70 | ±7.6% | 104.17–121.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 113.00 | ±8.2% | 103.70–122.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 112.46 | ±8.9% | 102.44–122.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 122.68 | ±11.1% | 109.08–136.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 122.68 | ±11.1% | 109.08–136.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 122.40 | ±11.2% | 108.67–136.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 122.57 | ±12.0% | 107.82–137.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 123.72 | ±12.5% | 108.22–139.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 123.00 | ±12.5% | 107.58–138.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 119.03 | ±12.6% | 103.98–134.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 119.37 | ±13.4% | 103.39–135.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 124.10 | ±14.1% | 106.65–141.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 129.25 | ±14.1% | 110.97–147.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 129.03 | ±14.3% | 110.53–147.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 129.03 | ±14.3% | 110.53–147.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 129.03 | ±14.3% | 110.53–147.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 131.45 | ±14.7% | 112.10–150.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 131.45 | ±14.7% | 112.10–150.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 108.52 | ±6.9% | 100.98–116.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 109.25 | ±7.6% | 100.95–117.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 104.92 | ±7.7% | 96.80–113.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 110.55 | ±7.1% | 102.70–118.40 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +0.6% | dentro | 109.25 → 109.91 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +4.8% | fuera | 104.92 → 109.91 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 110.55 → 109.91 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -4.0% | dentro | 114.43 → 109.91 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -0.9% | dentro | 110.91 → 109.91 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 109.76 → 109.91 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -3.2% | dentro | 113.55 → 109.91 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -2.5% | dentro | 112.70 → 109.91 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 113.00 → 109.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -2.3% | dentro | 112.46 → 109.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -10.4% | fuera | 122.68 → 109.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -10.4% | fuera | 122.68 → 109.91 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -10.2% | fuera | 122.40 → 109.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | -10.3% | dentro | 122.57 → 109.91 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -11.2% | dentro | 123.72 → 109.91 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -10.6% | dentro | 123.00 → 109.91 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -7.7% | dentro | 119.03 → 109.91 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | -7.9% | dentro | 119.37 → 109.91 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -11.4% | dentro | 124.10 → 109.91 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -15.0% | fuera | 129.25 → 109.91 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -14.8% | fuera | 129.03 → 109.91 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -14.8% | fuera | 129.03 → 109.91 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -14.8% | fuera | 129.03 → 109.91 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -16.4% | fuera | 131.45 → 109.91 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -16.4% | fuera | 131.45 → 109.91 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -13.1% | dentro | 126.52 → 109.91 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -11.2% | dentro | 123.73 → 109.91 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -14.1% | dentro | 127.93 → 109.91 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 114.43 → 114.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.2% | fuera | 110.91 → 114.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.2% | fuera | 109.76 → 114.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +0.8% | dentro | 113.55 → 114.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +1.5% | dentro | 112.70 → 114.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 113.00 → 114.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +1.8% | dentro | 112.46 → 114.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -6.7% | dentro | 122.68 → 114.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -6.7% | dentro | 122.68 → 114.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -6.5% | dentro | 122.40 → 114.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -6.6% | dentro | 122.57 → 114.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -7.5% | dentro | 123.72 → 114.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -7.0% | dentro | 123.00 → 114.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -3.9% | dentro | 119.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | -4.1% | dentro | 119.37 → 114.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -7.8% | dentro | 124.10 → 114.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | -11.5% | dentro | 129.25 → 114.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | dentro | 129.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | dentro | 129.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -11.3% | dentro | 129.03 → 114.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -12.9% | fuera | 131.45 → 114.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -12.9% | fuera | 131.45 → 114.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -9.6% | dentro | 126.52 → 114.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -7.5% | dentro | 123.73 → 114.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -10.6% | dentro | 127.93 → 114.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.6% | fuera | 113.00 → 113.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.1% | dentro | 112.46 → 113.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -7.4% | fuera | 122.68 → 113.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -7.4% | fuera | 122.68 → 113.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -7.1% | fuera | 122.40 → 113.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -7.3% | dentro | 122.57 → 113.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -8.1% | fuera | 123.72 → 113.65 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.