GDX histórico de movimento esperado VanEck Gold Miners ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo77%
|Real| abaixo do esperado77%
Movimento esperado médio±6.5%
Movimento |real| médio5.0%
Erro médio absoluto2.3pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 87.55 | ±0.3% | 87.27–87.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 83.62 | ±2.9% | 81.16–86.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 87.24 | ±3.3% | 84.39–90.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 89.27 | ±4.1% | 85.57–92.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 86.89 | ±4.9% | 82.66–91.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 85.82 | ±4.9% | 81.61–90.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 88.27 | ±5.1% | 83.81–92.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 87.44 | ±5.7% | 82.47–92.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 87.74 | ±5.9% | 82.56–92.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 86.65 | ±6.4% | 81.11–92.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 97.83 | ±8.7% | 89.28–106.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 97.75 | ±8.7% | 89.20–106.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 94.23 | ±8.6% | 86.11–102.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 95.65 | ±9.1% | 86.93–104.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 95.80 | ±9.7% | 86.55–105.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 92.82 | ±10.3% | 83.30–102.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 93.90 | ±10.3% | 84.20–103.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 94.31 | ±10.4% | 84.46–104.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 97.10 | ±10.8% | 86.62–107.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 96.15 | ±11.5% | 85.10–107.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 99.43 | ±11.4% | 88.06–110.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 98.42 | ±11.9% | 86.75–110.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 99.26 | ±12.0% | 87.36–111.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 99.33 | ±12.0% | 87.43–111.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 101.48 | ±12.2% | 89.08–113.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 97.83 | ±12.3% | 85.75–109.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 95.31 | ±12.5% | 83.44–107.19 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 98.33 | ±12.3% | 86.23–110.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 87.55 | ±2.1% | 85.69–89.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 83.62 | ±3.6% | 80.64–86.60 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 89.27 → 89.28 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +2.8% | fora | 86.89 → 89.28 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.0% | fora | 85.82 → 89.28 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 88.27 → 89.28 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +2.1% | dentro | 87.44 → 89.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +1.8% | dentro | 87.74 → 89.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +3.0% | dentro | 86.65 → 89.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -8.7% | fora | 97.83 → 89.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -8.7% | fora | 97.75 → 89.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -5.3% | dentro | 94.23 → 89.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -6.7% | dentro | 95.65 → 89.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -6.8% | dentro | 95.80 → 89.28 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -3.8% | dentro | 92.82 → 89.28 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -4.9% | dentro | 93.90 → 89.28 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -5.3% | dentro | 94.31 → 89.28 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -8.1% | dentro | 97.10 → 89.28 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -7.1% | dentro | 96.15 → 89.28 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -10.2% | dentro | 99.43 → 89.28 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -9.3% | dentro | 98.42 → 89.28 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -10.1% | dentro | 99.26 → 89.28 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -10.1% | dentro | 99.33 → 89.28 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -12.0% | fora | 101.48 → 89.28 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -8.7% | dentro | 97.83 → 89.28 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -6.3% | dentro | 95.31 → 89.28 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -9.2% | dentro | 98.33 → 89.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 87.74 → 87.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 86.65 → 87.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.3% | fora | 97.83 → 87.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.2% | fora | 97.75 → 87.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -6.8% | fora | 94.23 → 87.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -8.2% | fora | 95.65 → 87.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -8.4% | fora | 95.80 → 87.78 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -5.4% | dentro | 92.82 → 87.78 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -6.5% | dentro | 93.90 → 87.78 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -6.9% | dentro | 94.31 → 87.78 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | -9.6% | fora | 97.10 → 87.78 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -8.7% | dentro | 96.15 → 87.78 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -11.7% | fora | 99.43 → 87.78 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -10.8% | fora | 98.42 → 87.78 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -11.6% | fora | 99.26 → 87.78 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | -11.6% | fora | 99.33 → 87.78 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -13.5% | fora | 101.48 → 87.78 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | -10.3% | fora | 97.83 → 87.78 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | -7.9% | dentro | 95.31 → 87.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.2% | -10.7% | fora | 98.33 → 87.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -5.1% | fora | 97.83 → 92.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -5.0% | fora | 97.75 → 92.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -1.4% | dentro | 94.23 → 92.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 95.65 → 92.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -3.1% | dentro | 95.80 → 92.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 92.82 → 92.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -1.1% | dentro | 93.90 → 92.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | -1.5% | dentro | 94.31 → 92.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -4.4% | dentro | 97.10 → 92.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | -3.4% | dentro | 96.15 → 92.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | -6.6% | dentro | 99.43 → 92.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -5.6% | dentro | 98.42 → 92.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.4% | -6.4% | dentro | 99.26 → 92.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.4% | -6.5% | dentro | 99.33 → 92.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | -8.5% | dentro | 101.48 → 92.87 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.