GDX historial de movimiento esperado VanEck Gold Miners ETF
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango79%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado79%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.3%
Error medio abs.2.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 86.63 | ±0.5% | 86.16–87.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 87.55 | ±2.1% | 85.69–89.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 83.62 | ±3.6% | 80.64–86.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 87.24 | ±3.6% | 84.07–90.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 89.27 | ±4.7% | 85.04–93.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 86.89 | ±5.0% | 82.52–91.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 85.82 | ±5.4% | 81.20–90.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 88.27 | ±5.6% | 83.31–93.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 87.44 | ±6.1% | 82.11–92.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 86.63 | ±2.2% | 84.70–88.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 87.55 | ±3.5% | 84.53–90.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 83.62 | ±4.5% | 79.88–87.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 87.24 | ±4.3% | 83.53–90.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 89.27 | ±5.4% | 84.47–94.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 86.89 | ±5.8% | 81.82–91.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 85.82 | ±6.0% | 80.70–90.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 88.27 | ±6.5% | 82.56–93.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 86.63 | ±3.6% | 83.55–89.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 87.55 | ±4.6% | 83.54–91.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 83.62 | ±5.2% | 79.25–87.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 87.24 | ±4.9% | 82.94–91.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 89.27 | ±5.9% | 83.97–94.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 86.89 | ±6.3% | 81.39–92.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 85.82 | ±6.6% | 80.12–91.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 88.27 | ±6.6% | 82.41–94.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 87.44 | ±6.8% | 81.45–93.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 87.74 | ±7.6% | 81.09–94.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 86.65 | ±7.6% | 80.09–93.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 97.83 | ±9.8% | 88.23–107.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 97.75 | ±9.9% | 88.03–107.47 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 87.55 → 87.71 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +4.9% | fuera | 83.62 → 87.71 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +0.5% | dentro | 87.24 → 87.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -1.7% | dentro | 89.27 → 87.71 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +0.9% | dentro | 86.89 → 87.71 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +2.2% | dentro | 85.82 → 87.71 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -0.6% | dentro | 88.27 → 87.71 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +0.3% | dentro | 87.44 → 87.71 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -0.0% | dentro | 87.74 → 87.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +1.2% | dentro | 86.65 → 87.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -10.3% | fuera | 97.83 → 87.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -10.3% | fuera | 97.75 → 87.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -6.9% | dentro | 94.23 → 87.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -8.3% | dentro | 95.65 → 87.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -8.4% | dentro | 95.80 → 87.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -5.5% | dentro | 92.82 → 87.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -6.6% | dentro | 93.90 → 87.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -7.0% | dentro | 94.31 → 87.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -9.7% | dentro | 97.10 → 87.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -8.8% | dentro | 96.15 → 87.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -11.8% | fuera | 99.43 → 87.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | -10.9% | dentro | 98.42 → 87.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -11.6% | dentro | 99.26 → 87.71 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -11.7% | dentro | 99.33 → 87.71 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -13.6% | fuera | 101.48 → 87.71 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -10.3% | dentro | 97.83 → 87.71 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -8.0% | dentro | 95.31 → 87.71 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -10.8% | dentro | 98.33 → 87.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 89.27 → 89.28 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +2.8% | fuera | 86.89 → 89.28 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.0% | fuera | 85.82 → 89.28 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 88.27 → 89.28 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +2.1% | dentro | 87.44 → 89.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +1.8% | dentro | 87.74 → 89.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +3.0% | dentro | 86.65 → 89.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -8.7% | fuera | 97.83 → 89.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -8.7% | fuera | 97.75 → 89.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -5.3% | dentro | 94.23 → 89.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -6.7% | dentro | 95.65 → 89.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -6.8% | dentro | 95.80 → 89.28 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -3.8% | dentro | 92.82 → 89.28 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -4.9% | dentro | 93.90 → 89.28 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -5.3% | dentro | 94.31 → 89.28 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -8.1% | dentro | 97.10 → 89.28 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -7.1% | dentro | 96.15 → 89.28 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -10.2% | dentro | 99.43 → 89.28 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -9.3% | dentro | 98.42 → 89.28 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -10.1% | dentro | 99.26 → 89.28 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -10.1% | dentro | 99.33 → 89.28 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -12.0% | fuera | 101.48 → 89.28 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -8.7% | dentro | 97.83 → 89.28 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -6.3% | dentro | 95.31 → 89.28 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -9.2% | dentro | 98.33 → 89.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 87.74 → 87.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 86.65 → 87.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.3% | fuera | 97.83 → 87.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.2% | fuera | 97.75 → 87.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -6.8% | fuera | 94.23 → 87.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -8.2% | fuera | 95.65 → 87.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -8.4% | fuera | 95.80 → 87.78 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.