FTNT historial de movimiento esperado Fortinet, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango51%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado51%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.8%
Error medio abs.4.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 171.50 | ±4.4% | 163.97–179.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 169.78 | ±5.6% | 160.35–179.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 184.05 | ±5.5% | 174.00–194.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 190.76 | ±5.4% | 180.38–201.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 194.47 | ±6.1% | 182.59–206.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 189.45 | ±7.1% | 176.07–202.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 189.52 | ±6.8% | 176.62–202.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 191.33 | ±7.0% | 177.86–204.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 184.01 | ±7.6% | 170.11–197.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 180.95 | ±7.5% | 167.32–194.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 178.72 | ±8.7% | 163.17–194.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 173.66 | ±10.6% | 155.24–192.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 173.13 | ±10.5% | 155.03–191.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 174.71 | ±10.5% | 156.34–193.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 169.07 | ±10.9% | 150.70–187.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 170.00 | ±11.9% | 149.72–190.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 172.07 | ±11.5% | 152.29–191.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 172.37 | ±12.3% | 151.25–193.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 166.01 | ±12.5% | 145.19–186.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 156.07 | ±12.2% | 136.97–175.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 158.81 | ±12.5% | 138.97–178.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 157.26 | ±13.1% | 136.61–177.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 157.47 | ±13.2% | 136.69–178.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 156.29 | ±13.3% | 135.56–177.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 156.74 | ±13.6% | 135.36–178.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 157.79 | ±13.4% | 136.69–178.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 171.50 | ±12.3% | 150.32–192.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 169.78 | ±13.0% | 147.71–191.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 184.05 | ±12.8% | 160.43–207.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 190.76 | ±12.6% | 166.76–214.76 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 169.78 → 169.13 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -8.1% | fuera | 184.05 → 169.13 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -11.3% | fuera | 190.76 → 169.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -13.0% | fuera | 194.47 → 169.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -10.7% | fuera | 189.45 → 169.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -10.8% | fuera | 189.52 → 169.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -11.6% | fuera | 191.33 → 169.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -8.1% | fuera | 184.01 → 169.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -6.5% | fuera | 180.95 → 169.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -5.4% | dentro | 178.72 → 169.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -2.6% | dentro | 173.66 → 169.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 173.13 → 169.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 174.71 → 169.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 169.07 → 169.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -0.5% | dentro | 170.00 → 169.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -1.7% | dentro | 172.07 → 169.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -1.9% | dentro | 172.37 → 169.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +1.9% | dentro | 166.01 → 169.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +8.4% | dentro | 156.07 → 169.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | +6.5% | dentro | 158.81 → 169.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +7.5% | dentro | 157.26 → 169.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +7.4% | dentro | 157.47 → 169.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +8.2% | dentro | 156.29 → 169.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +7.9% | dentro | 156.74 → 169.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +7.2% | dentro | 157.79 → 169.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +10.4% | dentro | 153.18 → 169.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +3.8% | dentro | 163.00 → 169.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 170.71 → 169.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 194.47 → 194.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +2.8% | fuera | 189.45 → 194.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.8% | dentro | 189.52 → 194.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 191.33 → 194.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +5.8% | fuera | 184.01 → 194.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +7.6% | fuera | 180.95 → 194.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +9.0% | fuera | 178.72 → 194.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +12.1% | fuera | 173.66 → 194.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +12.5% | fuera | 173.13 → 194.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +11.5% | fuera | 174.71 → 194.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +15.2% | fuera | 169.07 → 194.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +14.6% | fuera | 170.00 → 194.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +13.2% | fuera | 172.07 → 194.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +13.0% | fuera | 172.37 → 194.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +17.3% | fuera | 166.01 → 194.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +24.8% | fuera | 156.07 → 194.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +22.6% | fuera | 158.81 → 194.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +23.8% | fuera | 157.26 → 194.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +23.7% | fuera | 157.47 → 194.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +24.6% | fuera | 156.29 → 194.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +24.3% | fuera | 156.74 → 194.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +23.4% | fuera | 157.79 → 194.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | +27.1% | fuera | 153.18 → 194.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +19.5% | fuera | 163.00 → 194.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +14.1% | fuera | 170.71 → 194.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 180.95 → 180.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | +1.2% | dentro | 178.72 → 180.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | +4.2% | dentro | 173.66 → 180.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +4.5% | dentro | 173.13 → 180.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +3.6% | dentro | 174.71 → 180.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | +7.0% | fuera | 169.07 → 180.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +6.4% | dentro | 170.00 → 180.95 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.