FSLR historial de movimiento esperado First Solar, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango41%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado41%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio9.0%
Error medio abs.3.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 171.50 | ±4.4% | 163.97–179.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 173.18 | ±5.4% | 163.83–182.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 178.50 | ±6.1% | 167.55–189.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 186.80 | ±6.6% | 174.43–199.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 178.25 | ±7.1% | 165.62–190.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 178.85 | ±7.9% | 164.70–193.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 180.13 | ±8.2% | 165.33–194.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 179.80 | ±8.5% | 164.53–195.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 176.00 | ±8.3% | 161.40–190.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 174.61 | ±9.0% | 158.88–190.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 174.63 | ±9.2% | 158.53–190.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 200.52 | ±11.6% | 177.22–223.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 200.83 | ±11.6% | 177.53–224.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 199.43 | ±11.8% | 175.95–222.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 195.08 | ±12.2% | 171.35–218.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 198.00 | ±12.8% | 172.72–223.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 192.00 | ±12.7% | 167.53–216.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 207.42 | ±13.2% | 180.09–234.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 208.48 | ±13.3% | 180.78–236.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 207.96 | ±13.9% | 179.06–236.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 203.67 | ±14.1% | 174.92–232.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 203.10 | ±14.2% | 174.35–231.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 215.36 | ±14.5% | 184.19–246.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 204.41 | ±14.6% | 174.51–234.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 206.44 | ±14.1% | 177.29–235.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 206.46 | ±14.6% | 176.41–236.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 171.50 | ±10.5% | 153.55–189.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 173.18 | ±11.0% | 154.06–192.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 178.50 | ±10.1% | 160.43–196.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 186.80 | ±10.2% | 167.73–205.88 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | -0.3% | dentro | 173.18 → 172.64 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -3.3% | dentro | 178.50 → 172.64 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -7.6% | fuera | 186.80 → 172.64 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -3.1% | dentro | 178.25 → 172.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -3.5% | dentro | 178.85 → 172.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -4.2% | dentro | 180.13 → 172.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -4.0% | dentro | 179.80 → 172.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -1.9% | dentro | 176.00 → 172.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -1.1% | dentro | 174.61 → 172.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -1.1% | dentro | 174.63 → 172.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -13.9% | fuera | 200.52 → 172.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -14.0% | fuera | 200.83 → 172.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -13.4% | fuera | 199.43 → 172.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -11.5% | fuera | 195.08 → 172.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -12.8% | fuera | 198.00 → 172.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -10.1% | dentro | 192.00 → 172.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -16.8% | fuera | 207.42 → 172.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -17.2% | fuera | 208.48 → 172.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -17.0% | fuera | 207.96 → 172.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -15.2% | fuera | 203.67 → 172.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -15.0% | fuera | 203.10 → 172.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -19.8% | fuera | 215.36 → 172.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -15.5% | fuera | 204.41 → 172.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -16.4% | fuera | 206.44 → 172.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -16.4% | fuera | 206.46 → 172.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -14.8% | fuera | 202.60 → 172.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -13.2% | dentro | 198.97 → 172.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -14.7% | fuera | 202.41 → 172.64 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 178.25 → 177.82 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -0.6% | dentro | 178.85 → 177.82 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -1.3% | dentro | 180.13 → 177.82 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -1.1% | dentro | 179.80 → 177.82 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.0% | dentro | 176.00 → 177.82 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +1.8% | dentro | 174.61 → 177.82 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 174.63 → 177.82 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -11.3% | fuera | 200.52 → 177.82 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -11.5% | fuera | 200.83 → 177.82 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -10.8% | fuera | 199.43 → 177.82 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -8.8% | fuera | 195.08 → 177.82 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -10.2% | fuera | 198.00 → 177.82 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -7.4% | dentro | 192.00 → 177.82 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -14.3% | fuera | 207.42 → 177.82 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -14.7% | fuera | 208.48 → 177.82 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -14.5% | fuera | 207.96 → 177.82 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | -12.7% | fuera | 203.67 → 177.82 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -12.4% | fuera | 203.10 → 177.82 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -17.4% | fuera | 215.36 → 177.82 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -13.0% | fuera | 204.41 → 177.82 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.4% | -13.9% | fuera | 206.44 → 177.82 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -13.9% | fuera | 206.46 → 177.82 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | -12.2% | dentro | 202.60 → 177.82 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -10.6% | dentro | 198.97 → 177.82 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -12.1% | dentro | 202.41 → 177.82 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 174.61 → 174.61 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.6% | -0.0% | dentro | 174.63 → 174.61 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -12.9% | fuera | 200.52 → 174.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -13.1% | fuera | 200.83 → 174.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -12.4% | fuera | 199.43 → 174.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -10.5% | fuera | 195.08 → 174.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -11.8% | fuera | 198.00 → 174.61 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.