FCX 预期波动历史 Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内94%
|实际值| 低于预期值92%
平均预期波动幅度±7.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.6%
平均绝对误差4.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 69.62 | ±0.8% | 69.05–70.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 69.59 | ±3.3% | 67.28–71.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 72.27 | ±3.7% | 69.61–74.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 73.66 | ±4.6% | 70.25–77.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 71.14 | ±4.8% | 67.71–74.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 72.12 | ±5.7% | 67.99–76.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 72.56 | ±6.1% | 68.12–77.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 72.77 | ±6.8% | 67.85–77.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 72.13 | ±7.0% | 67.05–77.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 69.23 | ±7.4% | 64.11–74.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 74.37 | ±9.4% | 67.34–81.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 74.69 | ±9.7% | 67.47–81.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 72.11 | ±9.3% | 65.39–78.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 71.60 | ±10.0% | 64.45–78.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 70.85 | ±10.1% | 63.70–78.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 69.10 | ±10.9% | 61.60–76.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 69.50 | ±10.8% | 62.02–76.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 69.70 | ±11.0% | 62.05–77.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 71.19 | ±11.2% | 63.22–79.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 71.32 | ±12.0% | 62.74–79.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 76.35 | ±12.3% | 66.95–85.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 76.96 | ±12.9% | 67.06–86.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 72.74 | ±12.2% | 63.84–81.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 73.05 | ±12.3% | 64.05–82.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 72.75 | ±12.1% | 63.92–81.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 73.93 | ±13.0% | 64.33–83.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 72.78 | ±13.0% | 63.31–82.26 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 75.22 | ±13.0% | 65.44–84.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 69.62 | ±5.3% | 65.92–73.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 69.59 | ±5.8% | 65.57–73.60 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 73.66 → 73.69 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.6% | 区间外 | 71.14 → 73.69 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 72.12 → 73.69 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 72.56 → 73.69 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 72.77 → 73.69 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 72.13 → 73.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 69.23 → 73.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 74.37 → 73.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 74.69 → 73.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 72.11 → 73.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 71.60 → 73.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 70.85 → 73.69 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 69.10 → 73.69 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 69.50 → 73.69 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 69.70 → 73.69 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 71.19 → 73.69 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 71.32 → 73.69 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 76.35 → 73.69 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 76.96 → 73.69 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 72.74 → 73.69 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 73.05 → 73.69 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 72.75 → 73.69 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 73.93 → 73.69 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 72.78 → 73.69 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 75.22 → 73.69 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 72.13 → 72.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | +4.1% | 区间外 | 69.23 → 72.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 74.37 → 72.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 74.69 → 72.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 72.11 → 72.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 71.60 → 72.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 70.85 → 72.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 69.10 → 72.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 69.50 → 72.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 69.70 → 72.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 71.19 → 72.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 71.32 → 72.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.1% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 76.35 → 72.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 76.96 → 72.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 72.74 → 72.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 73.05 → 72.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 72.75 → 72.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 73.93 → 72.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.5% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 72.78 → 72.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 75.22 → 72.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 74.37 → 72.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 74.69 → 72.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 72.11 → 72.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 71.60 → 72.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 70.85 → 72.31 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 69.10 → 72.31 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 69.50 → 72.31 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 69.70 → 72.31 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 71.19 → 72.31 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 71.32 → 72.31 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -5.3% | 区间内 | 76.35 → 72.31 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 76.96 → 72.31 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.5% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 72.74 → 72.31 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.4% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 73.05 → 72.31 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.8% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 72.75 → 72.31 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.