FCX история ожидаемого движения Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
Каждый торговый день после закрытия рынка мы фиксируем, что опционный рынок закладывал в цены — по каждой экспирации, до того как исход стал известен. Когда экспирация наступает, фактический результат записывается рядом с исходной оценкой. Оценки никогда не пересматриваются задним числом. Как читать эту статистику · запись ведётся с Aug 31, 2026
Сравнения разрешены121
Закрытие внутри диапазона93%
|Фактическое| ниже ожидаемого93%
Среднее ожидаемое движение±7.5%
Среднее |фактическое| движение2.9%
Средняя абс. ошибка4.8pt
Подразумеваемая vs реализованная, по экспирации
Для каждой экспирации: янтарный контур — ожидаемое движение, зафиксированное ближе всего к дате экспирации; сплошная полоса — фактическое движение акции. Под полосами указаны значения со знаком.
ожидаемое (зафиксировано)фактический
Зафиксировано в данный момент (ожидается исход)
| Снимок | Истекает | DTE | Спот на тот момент | Ожидаемое движение | Диапазон | Метод |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 69.75 | ±4.6% | 66.58–72.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 69.62 | ±5.3% | 65.92–73.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 69.59 | ±5.8% | 65.57–73.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 72.27 | ±5.7% | 68.15–76.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 73.66 | ±6.7% | 68.69–78.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 71.14 | ±7.0% | 66.16–76.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 72.12 | ±7.6% | 66.61–77.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 72.56 | ±7.9% | 66.86–78.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 72.77 | ±7.8% | 67.09–78.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 72.13 | ±8.8% | 65.81–78.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 69.23 | ±10.1% | 62.23–76.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 74.37 | ±11.7% | 65.67–83.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 74.69 | ±11.2% | 66.29–83.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 72.11 | ±10.9% | 64.23–79.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 71.60 | ±11.9% | 63.08–80.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 70.85 | ±11.4% | 62.80–78.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 69.10 | ±11.7% | 61.02–77.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 69.50 | ±11.7% | 61.35–77.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 69.70 | ±12.7% | 60.88–78.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 71.19 | ±13.2% | 61.79–80.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 71.32 | ±14.3% | 61.15–81.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 76.35 | ±13.8% | 65.80–86.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 76.96 | ±14.7% | 65.69–88.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 72.74 | ±14.3% | 62.34–83.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 73.05 | ±14.0% | 62.80–83.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 72.75 | ±13.6% | 62.88–82.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 69.75 | ±7.6% | 64.47–75.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 69.62 | ±8.3% | 63.81–75.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 69.59 | ±8.2% | 63.85–75.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 72.27 | ±8.4% | 66.17–78.38 | em-1.0 |
Сохранённые снимки
| Снимок | Истёкшие | Ожидаемое | Фактический | Внутри диапазона? | Спот → закрытие |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | внутри | 69.62 → 69.54 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -0.1% | внутри | 69.59 → 69.54 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -3.8% | за пределами | 72.27 → 69.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -5.6% | за пределами | 73.66 → 69.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -2.2% | внутри | 71.14 → 69.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -3.6% | внутри | 72.12 → 69.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.2% | внутри | 72.56 → 69.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -4.4% | внутри | 72.77 → 69.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -3.6% | внутри | 72.13 → 69.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +0.4% | внутри | 69.23 → 69.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -6.5% | внутри | 74.37 → 69.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -6.9% | внутри | 74.69 → 69.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -3.6% | внутри | 72.11 → 69.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -2.9% | внутри | 71.60 → 69.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -1.8% | внутри | 70.85 → 69.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | +0.6% | внутри | 69.10 → 69.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +0.1% | внутри | 69.50 → 69.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -0.2% | внутри | 69.70 → 69.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -2.3% | внутри | 71.19 → 69.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -2.5% | внутри | 71.32 → 69.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -8.9% | внутри | 76.35 → 69.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -9.6% | внутри | 76.96 → 69.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | -4.4% | внутри | 72.74 → 69.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -4.8% | внутри | 73.05 → 69.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | -4.4% | внутри | 72.75 → 69.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -5.9% | внутри | 73.93 → 69.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -4.5% | внутри | 72.78 → 69.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -7.5% | внутри | 75.22 → 69.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | внутри | 73.66 → 73.69 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +3.6% | за пределами | 71.14 → 73.69 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.2% | внутри | 72.12 → 73.69 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +1.6% | внутри | 72.56 → 73.69 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +1.3% | внутри | 72.77 → 73.69 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +2.2% | внутри | 72.13 → 73.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +6.4% | за пределами | 69.23 → 73.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -0.9% | внутри | 74.37 → 73.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -1.3% | внутри | 74.69 → 73.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +2.2% | внутри | 72.11 → 73.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +2.9% | внутри | 71.60 → 73.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +4.0% | внутри | 70.85 → 73.69 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +6.6% | внутри | 69.10 → 73.69 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +6.0% | внутри | 69.50 → 73.69 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +5.7% | внутри | 69.70 → 73.69 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +3.5% | внутри | 71.19 → 73.69 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +3.3% | внутри | 71.32 → 73.69 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -3.5% | внутри | 76.35 → 73.69 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -4.2% | внутри | 76.96 → 73.69 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +1.3% | внутри | 72.74 → 73.69 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +0.9% | внутри | 73.05 → 73.69 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +1.3% | внутри | 72.75 → 73.69 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -0.3% | внутри | 73.93 → 73.69 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +1.2% | внутри | 72.78 → 73.69 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -2.0% | внутри | 75.22 → 73.69 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | внутри | 72.13 → 72.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | +4.1% | за пределами | 69.23 → 72.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -3.1% | внутри | 74.37 → 72.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -3.5% | внутри | 74.69 → 72.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -0.1% | внутри | 72.11 → 72.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +0.6% | внутри | 71.60 → 72.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +1.7% | внутри | 70.85 → 72.04 |
Результаты сравнивают зафиксированный диапазон с ценой закрытия на день экспирации. Версия метода указана в каждой строке, если она отличается; текущая: em-1.0.