FANG historial de movimiento esperado Diamondback Energy, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango60%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado60%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.5%
Error medio abs.4.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 203.12 | ±8.8% | 185.17–221.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 203.95 | ±9.0% | 185.50–222.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 197.81 | ±9.2% | 179.61–216.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 198.18 | ±9.0% | 180.43–215.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 192.13 | ±9.5% | 173.88–210.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 191.68 | ±10.1% | 172.23–211.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 184.38 | ±10.2% | 165.53–203.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 184.98 | ±10.1% | 166.23–203.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 184.08 | ±10.8% | 164.18–203.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 184.71 | ±11.0% | 164.41–205.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 185.51 | ±11.1% | 165.01–206.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 184.90 | ±12.2% | 162.30–207.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 186.31 | ±12.1% | 163.86–208.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 188.19 | ±12.4% | 164.84–211.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 192.45 | ±12.7% | 168.05–216.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 203.12 | ±11.6% | 179.52–226.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 203.95 | ±11.9% | 179.70–228.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 197.81 | ±11.8% | 174.41–221.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Dec 18 | 66 | 198.18 | ±11.8% | 174.78–221.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Dec 18 | 70 | 192.13 | ±12.2% | 168.63–215.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Dec 18 | 71 | 191.68 | ±12.8% | 167.18–216.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Dec 18 | 72 | 184.38 | ±12.8% | 160.83–207.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Dec 18 | 73 | 184.98 | ±12.9% | 161.13–208.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Dec 18 | 74 | 184.08 | ±13.3% | 159.63–208.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Dec 18 | 77 | 184.71 | ±13.2% | 160.26–209.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Dec 18 | 78 | 185.51 | ±13.4% | 160.56–210.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Dec 18 | 86 | 184.90 | ±14.4% | 158.20–211.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Dec 18 | 87 | 186.31 | ±14.3% | 159.66–212.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Dec 18 | 88 | 188.19 | ±14.4% | 161.09–215.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Dec 18 | 91 | 192.45 | ±14.8% | 163.90–221.00 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 203.95 → 203.95 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +3.1% | fuera | 197.81 → 203.95 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +2.9% | fuera | 198.18 → 203.95 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +6.2% | fuera | 192.13 → 203.95 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +6.4% | fuera | 191.68 → 203.95 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +10.6% | fuera | 184.38 → 203.95 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +10.3% | fuera | 184.98 → 203.95 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +10.8% | fuera | 184.08 → 203.95 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +10.4% | fuera | 184.71 → 203.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +9.9% | fuera | 185.51 → 203.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +10.3% | fuera | 184.90 → 203.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +9.5% | fuera | 186.31 → 203.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +8.4% | fuera | 188.19 → 203.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +6.0% | dentro | 192.45 → 203.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +4.2% | dentro | 195.71 → 203.95 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +5.2% | dentro | 193.81 → 203.95 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -3.4% | dentro | 211.19 → 203.95 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 204.18 → 203.95 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -0.8% | dentro | 205.65 → 203.95 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 205.04 → 203.95 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 203.19 → 203.95 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +2.6% | dentro | 198.71 → 203.95 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +2.4% | dentro | 199.22 → 203.95 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 202.94 → 203.95 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +0.7% | dentro | 202.50 → 203.95 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 203.16 → 203.95 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 203.16 → 203.95 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +3.7% | dentro | 196.70 → 203.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.4% | -0.0% | dentro | 192.45 → 192.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -1.7% | dentro | 195.71 → 192.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -0.7% | dentro | 193.81 → 192.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -8.9% | fuera | 211.19 → 192.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -5.8% | fuera | 204.18 → 192.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.9% | -6.4% | fuera | 205.65 → 192.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.8% | -6.2% | fuera | 205.04 → 192.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.7% | -5.3% | fuera | 203.19 → 192.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.9% | -3.2% | dentro | 198.71 → 192.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.2% | -3.4% | dentro | 199.22 → 192.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.4% | -5.2% | dentro | 202.94 → 192.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±5.8% | -5.0% | dentro | 202.50 → 192.42 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -5.3% | dentro | 203.16 → 192.42 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.0% | -5.3% | dentro | 203.16 → 192.42 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±6.1% | -2.2% | dentro | 196.70 → 192.42 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.