F 预期波动历史 Ford Motor Company
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内32%
|实际值| 低于预期值32%
平均预期波动幅度±5.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度7.1%
平均绝对误差3.0pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 12.18 | ±3.2% | 11.79–12.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 12.43 | ±3.7% | 11.97–12.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 12.03 | ±3.9% | 11.56–12.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 12.10 | ±4.0% | 11.62–12.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 12.16 | ±4.7% | 11.59–12.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 12.24 | ±5.3% | 11.60–12.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 12.12 | ±5.2% | 11.48–12.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 12.27 | ±5.6% | 11.58–12.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 12.15 | ±5.6% | 11.46–12.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 12.11 | ±6.2% | 11.36–12.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 12.26 | ±6.4% | 11.48–13.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 13.10 | ±7.6% | 12.11–14.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 13.10 | ±7.6% | 12.11–14.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 13.19 | ±7.8% | 12.16–14.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 13.21 | ±8.3% | 12.12–14.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 13.62 | ±8.5% | 12.46–14.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 13.38 | ±8.6% | 12.23–14.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 13.51 | ±8.8% | 12.33–14.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 13.86 | ±9.5% | 12.54–15.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 13.96 | ±9.1% | 12.69–15.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 13.88 | ±9.5% | 12.56–15.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 13.52 | ±9.7% | 12.21–14.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 14.01 | ±9.4% | 12.70–15.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 14.59 | ±15.0% | 12.39–16.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 14.59 | ±15.0% | 12.39–16.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 14.39 | ±10.3% | 12.91–15.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 12.18 | ±6.7% | 11.36–13.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 12.43 | ±7.4% | 11.52–13.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 12.03 | ±7.4% | 11.14–12.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 12.10 | ±7.5% | 11.19–13.01 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 12.43 → 12.43 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 12.03 → 12.43 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +2.7% | 区间外 | 12.10 → 12.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 12.16 → 12.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 12.24 → 12.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 12.12 → 12.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 12.27 → 12.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 12.15 → 12.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 12.11 → 12.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 12.26 → 12.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 13.10 → 12.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 13.10 → 12.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 13.19 → 12.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 13.21 → 12.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 13.62 → 12.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -7.1% | 区间内 | 13.38 → 12.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 13.51 → 12.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 13.86 → 12.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -11.0% | 区间外 | 13.96 → 12.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -10.4% | 区间外 | 13.88 → 12.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -8.1% | 区间内 | 13.52 → 12.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -11.3% | 区间外 | 14.01 → 12.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -14.8% | 区间外 | 14.59 → 12.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -14.8% | 区间外 | 14.59 → 12.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -13.6% | 区间外 | 14.39 → 12.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 14.11 → 12.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -10.1% | 区间外 | 13.82 → 12.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -11.0% | 区间外 | 13.96 → 12.43 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 12.16 → 12.17 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 12.24 → 12.17 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 12.12 → 12.17 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 12.27 → 12.17 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 12.15 → 12.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 12.11 → 12.17 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 12.26 → 12.17 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 13.10 → 12.17 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 13.10 → 12.17 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 13.19 → 12.17 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 13.21 → 12.17 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 13.62 → 12.17 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -9.0% | 区间外 | 13.38 → 12.17 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -9.9% | 区间外 | 13.51 → 12.17 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 13.86 → 12.17 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 13.96 → 12.17 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -12.3% | 区间外 | 13.88 → 12.17 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -10.0% | 区间外 | 13.52 → 12.17 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 14.01 → 12.17 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -16.6% | 区间外 | 14.59 → 12.17 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -16.6% | 区间外 | 14.59 → 12.17 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -15.4% | 区间外 | 14.39 → 12.17 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -13.7% | 区间外 | 14.11 → 12.17 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 13.82 → 12.17 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -12.8% | 区间外 | 13.96 → 12.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 12.11 → 12.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 12.26 → 12.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 13.10 → 12.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 13.10 → 12.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -8.3% | 区间外 | 13.19 → 12.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 13.21 → 12.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 13.62 → 12.10 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.