EXC historial de movimiento esperado Exelon Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango53%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado53%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.9%
Error medio abs.2.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 42.26 | ±5.2% | 40.06–44.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 43.49 | ±5.1% | 41.29–45.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 42.60 | ±5.3% | 40.33–44.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 42.16 | ±5.5% | 39.84–44.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 41.53 | ±5.7% | 39.15–43.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 41.73 | ±5.9% | 39.28–44.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 41.49 | ±6.2% | 38.91–44.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 41.68 | ±5.9% | 39.20–44.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 40.82 | ±5.9% | 38.40–43.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 40.73 | ±6.3% | 38.18–43.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 40.48 | ±6.6% | 37.80–43.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 41.80 | ±6.6% | 39.05–44.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 41.80 | ±6.6% | 39.05–44.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 41.98 | ±7.2% | 38.95–45.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 42.07 | ±7.3% | 38.99–45.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 42.66 | ±8.5% | 39.03–46.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 42.26 | ±6.8% | 39.38–45.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 43.49 | ±7.0% | 40.47–46.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 42.60 | ±6.9% | 39.65–45.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Dec 18 | 66 | 42.16 | ±7.1% | 39.19–45.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Dec 18 | 70 | 41.53 | ±7.6% | 38.38–44.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Dec 18 | 71 | 41.73 | ±8.1% | 38.33–45.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Dec 18 | 72 | 41.49 | ±8.5% | 37.97–45.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Dec 18 | 73 | 41.68 | ±8.2% | 38.28–45.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Dec 18 | 74 | 40.82 | ±8.0% | 37.55–44.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Dec 18 | 77 | 40.73 | ±8.0% | 37.45–44.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Dec 18 | 78 | 40.48 | ±8.0% | 37.23–43.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Dec 18 | 86 | 41.80 | ±8.2% | 38.38–45.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Dec 18 | 87 | 41.80 | ±8.2% | 38.38–45.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Dec 18 | 88 | 41.98 | ±8.8% | 38.30–45.66 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 43.49 → 43.50 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +2.1% | fuera | 42.60 → 43.50 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +3.2% | fuera | 42.16 → 43.50 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +4.8% | fuera | 41.53 → 43.50 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +4.2% | fuera | 41.73 → 43.50 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +4.8% | fuera | 41.49 → 43.50 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +4.4% | fuera | 41.68 → 43.50 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +6.6% | fuera | 40.82 → 43.50 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +6.8% | fuera | 40.73 → 43.50 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +7.5% | fuera | 40.48 → 43.50 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +4.1% | fuera | 41.80 → 43.50 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +4.1% | fuera | 41.80 → 43.50 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +3.6% | dentro | 41.98 → 43.50 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +3.4% | dentro | 42.07 → 43.50 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 42.66 → 43.50 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +2.6% | dentro | 42.40 → 43.50 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.9% | dentro | 42.26 → 43.50 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +1.8% | dentro | 42.72 → 43.50 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +0.9% | dentro | 43.12 → 43.50 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 43.87 → 43.50 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 43.87 → 43.50 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -1.0% | dentro | 43.95 → 43.50 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 43.64 → 43.50 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 44.00 → 43.50 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 44.41 → 43.50 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -1.6% | dentro | 44.21 → 43.50 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -0.8% | dentro | 43.83 → 43.50 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 43.40 → 43.50 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 42.07 → 42.07 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.4% | -1.4% | dentro | 42.66 → 42.07 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.8% | -0.8% | dentro | 42.40 → 42.07 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.7% | -0.5% | dentro | 42.26 → 42.07 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | -1.5% | dentro | 42.72 → 42.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.3% | -2.4% | fuera | 43.12 → 42.07 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | -4.1% | fuera | 43.87 → 42.07 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | -4.1% | fuera | 43.87 → 42.07 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | -4.3% | fuera | 43.95 → 42.07 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | -3.6% | fuera | 43.64 → 42.07 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -4.4% | fuera | 44.00 → 42.07 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -5.3% | fuera | 44.41 → 42.07 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.1% | -4.8% | fuera | 44.21 → 42.07 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -4.0% | fuera | 43.83 → 42.07 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -3.1% | dentro | 43.40 → 42.07 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.