EWZ histórico de movimento esperado iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas139
Fechar dentro do intervalo67%
|Real| abaixo do esperado67%
Movimento esperado médio±5.7%
Movimento |real| médio5.1%
Erro médio absoluto2.9pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 42.15 | ±4.0% | 40.47–43.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 42.00 | ±4.8% | 39.97–44.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 42.38 | ±4.9% | 40.31–44.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 42.83 | ±4.7% | 40.83–44.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 43.48 | ±5.0% | 41.33–45.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 42.86 | ±5.3% | 40.59–45.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 42.42 | ±5.7% | 40.02–44.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 42.89 | ±5.8% | 40.41–45.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 43.03 | ±6.2% | 40.36–45.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 38.20 | ±9.7% | 34.48–41.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 37.25 | ±10.0% | 33.53–40.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 38.26 | ±9.9% | 34.47–42.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 38.27 | ±9.9% | 34.48–42.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 38.03 | ±10.1% | 34.20–41.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 37.66 | ±10.1% | 33.88–41.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 37.75 | ±10.3% | 33.84–41.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 37.48 | ±10.7% | 33.48–41.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 37.82 | ±11.1% | 33.64–42.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 37.69 | ±9.3% | 34.20–41.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 38.18 | ±12.2% | 33.51–42.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 38.60 | ±8.2% | 35.42–41.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 38.15 | ±10.8% | 34.03–42.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 38.66 | ±11.3% | 34.31–43.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 37.86 | ±14.8% | 32.26–43.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 37.90 | ±14.8% | 32.30–43.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 38.12 | ±11.3% | 33.80–42.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 42.15 | ±11.7% | 37.20–47.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 42.00 | ±12.6% | 36.72–47.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 42.38 | ±9.5% | 38.36–46.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 42.83 | ±8.2% | 39.30–46.35 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 42.00 → 41.83 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -1.3% | dentro | 42.38 → 41.83 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 42.83 → 41.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -3.8% | fora | 43.48 → 41.83 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -2.4% | dentro | 42.86 → 41.83 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -1.4% | dentro | 42.42 → 41.83 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 42.89 → 41.83 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -2.8% | dentro | 43.03 → 41.83 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +9.5% | fora | 38.20 → 41.83 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +12.3% | fora | 37.25 → 41.83 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +9.3% | fora | 38.26 → 41.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +9.3% | fora | 38.27 → 41.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +10.0% | fora | 38.03 → 41.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +11.1% | fora | 37.66 → 41.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +10.8% | fora | 37.75 → 41.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +11.6% | fora | 37.48 → 41.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +10.6% | fora | 37.82 → 41.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +11.0% | fora | 37.69 → 41.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +9.6% | dentro | 38.18 → 41.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +8.4% | dentro | 38.60 → 41.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +9.6% | dentro | 38.15 → 41.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +8.2% | dentro | 38.66 → 41.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +10.5% | fora | 37.86 → 41.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +10.4% | fora | 37.90 → 41.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +9.7% | dentro | 38.12 → 41.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +9.4% | dentro | 38.25 → 41.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +14.5% | fora | 36.53 → 41.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +16.2% | fora | 36.00 → 41.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 43.48 → 43.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +1.6% | fora | 42.86 → 43.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.6% | fora | 42.42 → 43.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +1.5% | dentro | 42.89 → 43.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 43.03 → 43.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +14.0% | fora | 38.20 → 43.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +16.9% | fora | 37.25 → 43.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +13.8% | fora | 38.26 → 43.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +13.8% | fora | 38.27 → 43.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +14.5% | fora | 38.03 → 43.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +15.6% | fora | 37.66 → 43.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +15.3% | fora | 37.75 → 43.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +16.2% | fora | 37.48 → 43.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +15.1% | fora | 37.82 → 43.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +15.5% | fora | 37.69 → 43.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +14.0% | fora | 38.18 → 43.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +12.8% | fora | 38.60 → 43.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +14.1% | fora | 38.15 → 43.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +12.6% | fora | 38.66 → 43.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +15.0% | fora | 37.86 → 43.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +14.9% | fora | 37.90 → 43.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +14.2% | fora | 38.12 → 43.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +13.8% | fora | 38.25 → 43.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +19.2% | fora | 36.53 → 43.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +20.9% | fora | 36.00 → 43.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -0.0% | dentro | 38.20 → 38.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | +2.5% | fora | 37.25 → 38.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 38.26 → 38.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 38.27 → 38.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 38.03 → 38.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 37.66 → 38.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 37.75 → 38.19 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.