EWZ histórico de movimento esperado iShares MSCI Brazil ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas111
Fechar dentro do intervalo72%
|Real| abaixo do esperado72%
Movimento esperado médio±5.1%
Movimento |real| médio4.3%
Erro médio absoluto3.2pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 42.00 | ±0.7% | 41.69–42.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 42.38 | ±2.4% | 41.38–43.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 42.83 | ±2.4% | 41.81–43.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 43.48 | ±3.2% | 42.09–44.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 42.86 | ±3.5% | 41.38–44.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 42.42 | ±3.9% | 40.76–44.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 42.89 | ±4.2% | 41.09–44.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 43.03 | ±4.6% | 41.03–45.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 38.20 | ±9.1% | 34.72–41.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 37.25 | ±9.0% | 33.91–40.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 38.26 | ±9.2% | 34.73–41.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 38.27 | ±9.2% | 34.73–41.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 38.03 | ±9.5% | 34.43–41.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 37.66 | ±9.6% | 34.06–41.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 37.75 | ±9.6% | 34.14–41.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 37.48 | ±9.7% | 33.86–41.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 37.82 | ±10.0% | 34.04–41.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 37.69 | ±10.1% | 33.87–41.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 38.18 | ±9.7% | 34.48–41.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 38.60 | ±10.0% | 34.74–42.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 38.15 | ±10.0% | 34.33–41.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 38.66 | ±10.4% | 34.62–42.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 37.86 | ±10.0% | 34.06–41.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 37.90 | ±10.0% | 34.10–41.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 38.12 | ±10.2% | 34.24–42.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 38.25 | ±11.0% | 34.05–42.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 36.53 | ±10.7% | 32.63–40.42 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 36.00 | ±10.8% | 32.12–39.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 42.00 | ±4.8% | 39.97–44.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 42.38 | ±4.9% | 40.31–44.45 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 43.48 → 43.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +1.6% | fora | 42.86 → 43.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.6% | fora | 42.42 → 43.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +1.5% | dentro | 42.89 → 43.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +1.2% | dentro | 43.03 → 43.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +14.0% | fora | 38.20 → 43.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +16.9% | fora | 37.25 → 43.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +13.8% | fora | 38.26 → 43.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +13.8% | fora | 38.27 → 43.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +14.5% | fora | 38.03 → 43.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +15.6% | fora | 37.66 → 43.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +15.3% | fora | 37.75 → 43.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | +16.2% | fora | 37.48 → 43.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +15.1% | fora | 37.82 → 43.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +15.5% | fora | 37.69 → 43.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +14.0% | fora | 38.18 → 43.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +12.8% | fora | 38.60 → 43.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +14.1% | fora | 38.15 → 43.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +12.6% | fora | 38.66 → 43.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +15.0% | fora | 37.86 → 43.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +14.9% | fora | 37.90 → 43.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +14.2% | fora | 38.12 → 43.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +13.8% | fora | 38.25 → 43.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +19.2% | fora | 36.53 → 43.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +20.9% | fora | 36.00 → 43.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -0.0% | dentro | 38.20 → 38.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | +2.5% | fora | 37.25 → 38.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 38.26 → 38.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 38.27 → 38.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 38.03 → 38.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 37.66 → 38.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 37.75 → 38.19 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +1.9% | dentro | 37.48 → 38.19 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 37.82 → 38.19 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 37.69 → 38.19 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 38.18 → 38.19 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -1.1% | dentro | 38.60 → 38.19 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +0.1% | dentro | 38.15 → 38.19 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 38.66 → 38.19 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 37.86 → 38.19 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 37.90 → 38.19 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 38.12 → 38.19 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -0.2% | dentro | 38.25 → 38.19 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +4.5% | dentro | 36.53 → 38.19 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | +6.1% | dentro | 36.00 → 38.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±3.5% | -2.6% | dentro | 38.26 → 37.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±3.5% | -2.7% | dentro | 38.27 → 37.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±3.8% | -2.1% | dentro | 38.03 → 37.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±4.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 37.66 → 37.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±4.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 37.75 → 37.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±4.7% | -0.6% | dentro | 37.48 → 37.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.2% | -1.5% | dentro | 37.82 → 37.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 37.69 → 37.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.6% | -2.4% | dentro | 38.18 → 37.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 38.60 → 37.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.9% | -2.4% | dentro | 38.15 → 37.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.7% | -3.6% | dentro | 38.66 → 37.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.9% | -1.6% | dentro | 37.86 → 37.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±5.8% | -1.7% | dentro | 37.90 → 37.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 30 | ±6.0% | -2.3% | dentro | 38.12 → 37.25 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.