ETN 预期波动历史 Eaton Corporation plc
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内56%
|实际值| 低于预期值56%
平均预期波动幅度±5.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.2%
平均绝对误差2.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 391.25 | ±0.6% | 388.75–393.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 408.85 | ±3.6% | 394.10–423.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 428.31 | ±3.3% | 414.26–442.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 430.50 | ±4.1% | 412.85–448.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 424.34 | ±4.7% | 404.24–444.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 431.44 | ±4.6% | 411.69–451.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 445.20 | ±4.9% | 423.55–466.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 433.99 | ±4.9% | 412.64–455.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 435.00 | ±5.2% | 412.45–457.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 437.63 | ±5.7% | 412.63–462.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 442.49 | ±7.5% | 409.44–475.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 434.01 | ±8.0% | 399.36–468.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 437.50 | ±8.0% | 402.39–472.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 419.85 | ±8.4% | 384.65–455.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 410.00 | ±9.4% | 371.45–448.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 396.54 | ±9.0% | 360.89–432.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 395.50 | ±9.4% | 358.30–432.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 396.30 | ±9.5% | 358.64–433.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 422.98 | ±9.0% | 384.73–461.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 414.20 | ±9.8% | 373.80–454.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 415.69 | ±9.8% | 375.08–456.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 418.80 | ±9.9% | 377.40–460.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 411.52 | ±10.0% | 370.52–452.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 400.00 | ±9.9% | 360.25–439.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 390.85 | ±9.9% | 352.30–429.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 390.46 | ±9.9% | 351.91–429.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 398.35 | ±10.3% | 357.35–439.35 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 404.30 | ±10.5% | 361.95–446.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 391.25 | ±4.7% | 372.95–409.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 408.85 | ±6.0% | 384.35–433.35 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 430.50 → 429.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 424.34 → 429.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 431.44 → 429.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.5% | 区间外 | 445.20 → 429.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 433.99 → 429.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 435.00 → 429.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 437.63 → 429.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 442.49 → 429.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 434.01 → 429.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 437.50 → 429.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 419.85 → 429.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 410.00 → 429.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +8.3% | 区间外 | 396.54 → 429.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +8.6% | 区间外 | 395.50 → 429.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 396.30 → 429.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 422.98 → 429.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 414.20 → 429.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 415.69 → 429.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 418.80 → 429.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 411.52 → 429.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +7.4% | 区间内 | 400.00 → 429.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +9.9% | 区间外 | 390.85 → 429.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +10.0% | 区间外 | 390.46 → 429.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 398.35 → 429.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 404.30 → 429.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 435.00 → 436.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 437.63 → 436.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 442.49 → 436.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 434.01 → 436.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 437.50 → 436.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +3.9% | 区间内 | 419.85 → 436.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 410.00 → 436.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +10.0% | 区间外 | 396.54 → 436.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 395.50 → 436.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +10.0% | 区间外 | 396.30 → 436.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 422.98 → 436.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 414.20 → 436.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 415.69 → 436.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 418.80 → 436.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 411.52 → 436.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +9.0% | 区间外 | 400.00 → 436.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +11.6% | 区间外 | 390.85 → 436.11 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +11.7% | 区间外 | 390.46 → 436.11 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 398.35 → 436.11 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | +7.9% | 区间内 | 404.30 → 436.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.0% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 442.49 → 439.98 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 434.01 → 439.98 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 437.50 → 439.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 419.85 → 439.98 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | +7.3% | 区间外 | 410.00 → 439.98 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | +11.0% | 区间外 | 396.54 → 439.98 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | +11.2% | 区间外 | 395.50 → 439.98 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +11.0% | 区间外 | 396.30 → 439.98 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 422.98 → 439.98 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | +6.2% | 区间外 | 414.20 → 439.98 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.4% | +5.8% | 区间内 | 415.69 → 439.98 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | +5.1% | 区间内 | 418.80 → 439.98 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | +6.9% | 区间外 | 411.52 → 439.98 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | +10.0% | 区间外 | 400.00 → 439.98 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | +12.6% | 区间外 | 390.85 → 439.98 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.