ETN historial de movimiento esperado Eaton Corporation plc
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango56%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado56%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.2%
Error medio abs.2.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 391.25 | ±0.6% | 388.75–393.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 408.85 | ±3.6% | 394.10–423.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 428.31 | ±3.3% | 414.26–442.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 430.50 | ±4.1% | 412.85–448.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 424.34 | ±4.7% | 404.24–444.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 431.44 | ±4.6% | 411.69–451.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 445.20 | ±4.9% | 423.55–466.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 433.99 | ±4.9% | 412.64–455.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 435.00 | ±5.2% | 412.45–457.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 437.63 | ±5.7% | 412.63–462.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 442.49 | ±7.5% | 409.44–475.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 434.01 | ±8.0% | 399.36–468.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 437.50 | ±8.0% | 402.39–472.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 419.85 | ±8.4% | 384.65–455.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 410.00 | ±9.4% | 371.45–448.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 396.54 | ±9.0% | 360.89–432.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 395.50 | ±9.4% | 358.30–432.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 396.30 | ±9.5% | 358.64–433.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 422.98 | ±9.0% | 384.73–461.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 414.20 | ±9.8% | 373.80–454.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 415.69 | ±9.8% | 375.08–456.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 418.80 | ±9.9% | 377.40–460.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 411.52 | ±10.0% | 370.52–452.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 400.00 | ±9.9% | 360.25–439.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 390.85 | ±9.9% | 352.30–429.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 390.46 | ±9.9% | 351.91–429.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 398.35 | ±10.3% | 357.35–439.35 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 404.30 | ±10.5% | 361.95–446.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 391.25 | ±4.7% | 372.95–409.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 408.85 | ±6.0% | 384.35–433.35 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 430.50 → 429.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 424.34 → 429.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 431.44 → 429.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.5% | fuera | 445.20 → 429.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 433.99 → 429.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 435.00 → 429.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -1.8% | dentro | 437.63 → 429.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 442.49 → 429.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 434.01 → 429.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -1.8% | dentro | 437.50 → 429.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +2.3% | dentro | 419.85 → 429.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.8% | dentro | 410.00 → 429.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +8.3% | fuera | 396.54 → 429.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +8.6% | fuera | 395.50 → 429.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +8.4% | fuera | 396.30 → 429.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 422.98 → 429.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +3.7% | dentro | 414.20 → 429.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +3.4% | dentro | 415.69 → 429.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 418.80 → 429.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +4.4% | dentro | 411.52 → 429.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +7.4% | dentro | 400.00 → 429.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +9.9% | fuera | 390.85 → 429.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +10.0% | fuera | 390.46 → 429.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +7.9% | dentro | 398.35 → 429.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +6.3% | dentro | 404.30 → 429.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 435.00 → 436.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.3% | dentro | 437.63 → 436.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -1.4% | dentro | 442.49 → 436.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 434.01 → 436.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -0.3% | dentro | 437.50 → 436.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +3.9% | dentro | 419.85 → 436.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +6.4% | dentro | 410.00 → 436.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +10.0% | fuera | 396.54 → 436.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +10.3% | fuera | 395.50 → 436.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +10.0% | fuera | 396.30 → 436.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +3.1% | dentro | 422.98 → 436.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +5.3% | dentro | 414.20 → 436.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | +4.9% | dentro | 415.69 → 436.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +4.1% | dentro | 418.80 → 436.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +6.0% | dentro | 411.52 → 436.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +9.0% | fuera | 400.00 → 436.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +11.6% | fuera | 390.85 → 436.11 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +11.7% | fuera | 390.46 → 436.11 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +9.5% | fuera | 398.35 → 436.11 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | +7.9% | dentro | 404.30 → 436.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.0% | -0.6% | dentro | 442.49 → 439.98 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +1.4% | dentro | 434.01 → 439.98 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | +0.6% | dentro | 437.50 → 439.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | +4.8% | fuera | 419.85 → 439.98 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | +7.3% | fuera | 410.00 → 439.98 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | +11.0% | fuera | 396.54 → 439.98 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | +11.2% | fuera | 395.50 → 439.98 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +11.0% | fuera | 396.30 → 439.98 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +4.0% | dentro | 422.98 → 439.98 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | +6.2% | fuera | 414.20 → 439.98 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.4% | +5.8% | dentro | 415.69 → 439.98 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | +5.1% | dentro | 418.80 → 439.98 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | +6.9% | fuera | 411.52 → 439.98 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | +10.0% | fuera | 400.00 → 439.98 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | +12.6% | fuera | 390.85 → 439.98 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.