ETN historial de movimiento esperado Eaton Corporation plc
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango56%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado56%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.4%
Error medio abs.3.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 391.50 | ±3.6% | 377.50–405.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 391.25 | ±4.7% | 372.95–409.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 408.85 | ±6.0% | 384.35–433.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 428.31 | ±5.0% | 406.71–449.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 430.50 | ±5.6% | 406.25–454.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 424.34 | ±6.2% | 397.94–450.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 431.44 | ±6.1% | 405.19–457.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 445.20 | ±6.1% | 417.85–472.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 433.99 | ±6.3% | 406.59–461.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 435.00 | ±6.4% | 406.95–463.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 437.63 | ±7.1% | 406.63–468.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 442.49 | ±8.7% | 404.09–480.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 434.01 | ±8.9% | 395.56–472.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 437.50 | ±8.9% | 398.60–476.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 419.85 | ±9.5% | 379.85–459.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 410.00 | ±10.1% | 368.60–451.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 396.54 | ±10.1% | 356.49–436.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 395.50 | ±10.3% | 354.85–436.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 396.30 | ±10.3% | 355.35–437.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 422.98 | ±10.2% | 379.83–466.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 414.20 | ±10.6% | 370.20–458.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 415.69 | ±10.6% | 371.63–459.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 418.80 | ±10.8% | 373.45–464.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 411.52 | ±10.8% | 367.17–455.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 400.00 | ±10.9% | 356.55–443.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 391.50 | ±6.1% | 367.60–415.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 391.25 | ±7.0% | 363.75–418.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 408.85 | ±8.7% | 373.15–444.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 428.31 | ±7.4% | 396.51–460.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 430.50 | ±7.5% | 398.20–462.80 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 391.25 → 391.25 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -4.3% | fuera | 408.85 → 391.25 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -8.7% | fuera | 428.31 → 391.25 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -9.1% | fuera | 430.50 → 391.25 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -7.8% | fuera | 424.34 → 391.25 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -9.3% | fuera | 431.44 → 391.25 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -12.1% | fuera | 445.20 → 391.25 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -9.8% | fuera | 433.99 → 391.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -10.1% | fuera | 435.00 → 391.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -10.6% | fuera | 437.63 → 391.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -11.6% | fuera | 442.49 → 391.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -9.9% | fuera | 434.01 → 391.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -10.6% | fuera | 437.50 → 391.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -6.8% | dentro | 419.85 → 391.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -4.6% | dentro | 410.00 → 391.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -1.3% | dentro | 396.54 → 391.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -1.1% | dentro | 395.50 → 391.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 396.30 → 391.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -7.5% | dentro | 422.98 → 391.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -5.5% | dentro | 414.20 → 391.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -5.9% | dentro | 415.69 → 391.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -6.6% | dentro | 418.80 → 391.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -4.9% | dentro | 411.52 → 391.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -2.2% | dentro | 400.00 → 391.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 390.85 → 391.25 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 390.46 → 391.25 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -1.8% | dentro | 398.35 → 391.25 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 404.30 → 391.25 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 430.50 → 429.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 424.34 → 429.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 431.44 → 429.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.5% | fuera | 445.20 → 429.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -1.0% | dentro | 433.99 → 429.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -1.2% | dentro | 435.00 → 429.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -1.8% | dentro | 437.63 → 429.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -2.9% | dentro | 442.49 → 429.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 434.01 → 429.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -1.8% | dentro | 437.50 → 429.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +2.3% | dentro | 419.85 → 429.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +4.8% | dentro | 410.00 → 429.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +8.3% | fuera | 396.54 → 429.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +8.6% | fuera | 395.50 → 429.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +8.4% | fuera | 396.30 → 429.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 422.98 → 429.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +3.7% | dentro | 414.20 → 429.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +3.4% | dentro | 415.69 → 429.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 418.80 → 429.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +4.4% | dentro | 411.52 → 429.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +7.4% | dentro | 400.00 → 429.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +9.9% | fuera | 390.85 → 429.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +10.0% | fuera | 390.46 → 429.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +7.9% | dentro | 398.35 → 429.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +6.3% | dentro | 404.30 → 429.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 435.00 → 436.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.3% | dentro | 437.63 → 436.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -1.4% | dentro | 442.49 → 436.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 434.01 → 436.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -0.3% | dentro | 437.50 → 436.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +3.9% | dentro | 419.85 → 436.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | +6.4% | dentro | 410.00 → 436.11 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.