ET 预期波动历史 Energy Transfer LP
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内51%
|实际值| 低于预期值51%
平均预期波动幅度±3.0%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.1%
平均绝对误差1.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 20.14 | ±2.0% | 19.74–20.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 20.24 | ±2.5% | 19.74–20.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 20.36 | ±2.9% | 19.77–20.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 20.46 | ±2.5% | 19.95–20.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 20.45 | ±2.9% | 19.86–21.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 20.66 | ±3.1% | 20.01–21.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 20.50 | ±3.6% | 19.76–21.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 20.68 | ±3.4% | 19.98–21.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 20.53 | ±3.4% | 19.82–21.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 20.51 | ±3.4% | 19.82–21.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 20.07 | ±3.2% | 19.43–20.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 20.49 | ±4.4% | 19.58–21.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 20.52 | ±4.4% | 19.61–21.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 20.90 | ±4.4% | 19.98–21.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 21.15 | ±4.8% | 20.15–22.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 21.07 | ±4.7% | 20.08–22.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 21.13 | ±5.0% | 20.07–22.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 21.43 | ±4.9% | 20.37–22.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 21.50 | ±5.2% | 20.38–22.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 21.51 | ±5.0% | 20.42–22.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 21.73 | ±5.2% | 20.61–22.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 21.69 | ±5.3% | 20.54–22.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 21.50 | ±5.3% | 20.35–22.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 21.52 | ±4.9% | 20.46–22.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 21.50 | ±5.1% | 20.39–22.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 21.46 | ±5.2% | 20.35–22.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 20.14 | ±2.6% | 19.62–20.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 20.24 | ±3.4% | 19.55–20.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 20.36 | ±3.0% | 19.75–20.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 20.46 | ±3.4% | 19.77–21.15 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 20.24 → 20.26 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 20.36 → 20.26 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 20.46 → 20.26 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 20.45 → 20.26 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 20.66 → 20.26 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 20.50 → 20.26 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 20.68 → 20.26 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 20.53 → 20.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 20.51 → 20.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 20.07 → 20.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 20.49 → 20.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 20.52 → 20.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 20.90 → 20.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -4.2% | 区间外 | 21.15 → 20.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 21.07 → 20.26 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 21.13 → 20.26 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 21.43 → 20.26 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 21.50 → 20.26 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 21.51 → 20.26 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -6.8% | 区间外 | 21.73 → 20.26 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 21.69 → 20.26 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 21.50 → 20.26 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 21.52 → 20.26 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 21.50 → 20.26 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -5.6% | 区间外 | 21.46 → 20.26 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -6.1% | 区间外 | 21.58 → 20.26 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -5.6% | 区间内 | 21.45 → 20.26 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 21.48 → 20.26 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 20.45 → 20.41 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | -1.2% | 区间外 | 20.66 → 20.41 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 20.50 → 20.41 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 20.68 → 20.41 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 20.53 → 20.41 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 20.51 → 20.41 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 20.07 → 20.41 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 20.49 → 20.41 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 20.52 → 20.41 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 20.90 → 20.41 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.5% | 区间外 | 21.15 → 20.41 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 21.07 → 20.41 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 21.13 → 20.41 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -4.7% | 区间外 | 21.43 → 20.41 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 21.50 → 20.41 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 21.51 → 20.41 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -6.1% | 区间外 | 21.73 → 20.41 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 21.69 → 20.41 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 21.50 → 20.41 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -5.2% | 区间外 | 21.52 → 20.41 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 21.50 → 20.41 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -4.9% | 区间外 | 21.46 → 20.41 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 21.58 → 20.41 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -4.9% | 区间外 | 21.45 → 20.41 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 21.48 → 20.41 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 20.51 → 20.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.2% | +2.0% | 区间外 | 20.07 → 20.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 20.49 → 20.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 20.52 → 20.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 20.90 → 20.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -3.2% | 区间外 | 21.15 → 20.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 21.07 → 20.47 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.