EMR histórico de movimento esperado Emerson Electric Co.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo55%
|Real| abaixo do esperado55%
Movimento esperado médio±4.8%
Movimento |real| médio4.7%
Erro médio absoluto2.0pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 160.38 | ±3.7% | 154.50–166.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 160.60 | ±3.6% | 154.83–166.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 161.08 | ±3.4% | 155.53–166.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 163.50 | ±3.7% | 157.43–169.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 161.83 | ±4.3% | 154.88–168.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 158.57 | ±4.7% | 151.17–165.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 159.22 | ±4.8% | 151.57–166.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 162.14 | ±5.2% | 153.74–170.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 163.24 | ±5.1% | 154.94–171.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 162.02 | ±5.5% | 153.04–171.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 159.15 | ±5.3% | 150.68–167.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 154.19 | ±6.7% | 143.89–164.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 153.54 | ±6.5% | 143.49–163.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 149.92 | ±6.9% | 139.62–160.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 147.41 | ±7.4% | 136.56–158.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 145.83 | ±7.7% | 134.53–157.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 147.00 | ±7.7% | 135.75–158.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 147.22 | ±7.9% | 135.57–158.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 148.18 | ±8.2% | 136.07–160.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 148.37 | ±8.7% | 135.42–161.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 150.34 | ±8.7% | 137.29–163.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 152.15 | ±8.5% | 139.15–165.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 152.82 | ±8.2% | 140.22–165.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 152.82 | ±8.2% | 140.22–165.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 150.21 | ±8.7% | 137.11–163.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 160.38 | ±4.2% | 153.63–167.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 160.60 | ±5.2% | 152.33–168.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 161.08 | ±5.2% | 152.75–169.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 163.50 | ±5.1% | 155.15–171.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 161.83 | ±5.7% | 152.53–171.13 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.5% | dentro | 160.60 → 161.47 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +0.2% | dentro | 161.08 → 161.47 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 163.50 → 161.47 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 161.83 → 161.47 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +1.8% | dentro | 158.57 → 161.47 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +1.4% | dentro | 159.22 → 161.47 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -0.4% | dentro | 162.14 → 161.47 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -1.1% | dentro | 163.24 → 161.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -0.3% | dentro | 162.02 → 161.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +1.5% | dentro | 159.15 → 161.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +4.7% | dentro | 154.19 → 161.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +5.2% | dentro | 153.54 → 161.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +7.7% | fora | 149.92 → 161.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +9.5% | fora | 147.41 → 161.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +10.7% | fora | 145.83 → 161.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +9.8% | fora | 147.00 → 161.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +9.7% | fora | 147.22 → 161.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +9.0% | fora | 148.18 → 161.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +8.8% | fora | 148.37 → 161.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +7.4% | fora | 150.34 → 161.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +6.1% | dentro | 152.15 → 161.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +5.7% | dentro | 152.82 → 161.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +5.7% | dentro | 152.82 → 161.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +7.5% | fora | 150.21 → 161.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +8.4% | fora | 148.98 → 161.47 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +9.4% | fora | 147.63 → 161.47 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +5.9% | dentro | 152.44 → 161.47 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +4.1% | dentro | 155.18 → 161.47 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 161.83 → 161.83 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +2.1% | fora | 158.57 → 161.83 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.6% | dentro | 159.22 → 161.83 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 162.14 → 161.83 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.9% | dentro | 163.24 → 161.83 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 162.02 → 161.83 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.7% | dentro | 159.15 → 161.83 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +5.0% | fora | 154.19 → 161.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +5.4% | fora | 153.54 → 161.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +7.9% | fora | 149.92 → 161.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +9.8% | fora | 147.41 → 161.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +11.0% | fora | 145.83 → 161.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +10.1% | fora | 147.00 → 161.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +9.9% | fora | 147.22 → 161.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +9.2% | fora | 148.18 → 161.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +9.1% | fora | 148.37 → 161.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +7.6% | fora | 150.34 → 161.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +6.4% | dentro | 152.15 → 161.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +5.9% | dentro | 152.82 → 161.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +5.9% | dentro | 152.82 → 161.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +7.7% | fora | 150.21 → 161.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +8.6% | fora | 148.98 → 161.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +9.6% | fora | 147.63 → 161.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +6.2% | dentro | 152.44 → 161.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +4.3% | dentro | 155.18 → 161.83 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 162.02 → 161.61 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | +1.5% | dentro | 159.15 → 161.61 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +4.8% | fora | 154.19 → 161.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +5.3% | fora | 153.54 → 161.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | +7.8% | fora | 149.92 → 161.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +9.6% | fora | 147.41 → 161.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +10.8% | fora | 145.83 → 161.61 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.