EL histórico de movimento esperado The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo59%
|Real| abaixo do esperado59%
Movimento esperado médio±5.4%
Movimento |real| médio4.6%
Erro médio absoluto2.4pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 105.00 | ±0.7% | 104.22–105.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 101.59 | ±3.6% | 97.92–105.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 99.73 | ±2.6% | 97.11–102.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 98.05 | ±3.9% | 94.25–101.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 94.32 | ±4.9% | 89.67–98.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 94.45 | ±5.1% | 89.67–99.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 93.54 | ±4.7% | 89.11–97.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 93.30 | ±5.0% | 88.62–97.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 91.97 | ±5.4% | 87.05–96.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 90.19 | ±5.9% | 84.89–95.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 100.25 | ±7.2% | 93.03–107.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 100.38 | ±7.2% | 93.18–107.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 94.81 | ±7.4% | 87.76–101.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 94.22 | ±7.5% | 87.17–101.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 95.64 | ±8.2% | 87.77–103.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 96.25 | ±8.7% | 87.88–104.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 97.12 | ±8.8% | 88.55–105.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 97.12 | ±8.8% | 88.55–105.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 96.47 | ±9.0% | 87.82–105.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 98.77 | ±9.3% | 89.62–107.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 99.57 | ±8.8% | 90.82–108.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 102.50 | ±9.5% | 92.75–112.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 103.86 | ±9.1% | 94.46–113.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 100.51 | ±9.1% | 91.36–109.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 101.15 | ±9.3% | 91.70–110.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 100.18 | ±9.2% | 90.98–109.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 101.27 | ±9.4% | 91.72–110.82 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 101.61 | ±10.1% | 91.31–111.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 105.00 | ±4.2% | 100.62–109.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 101.59 | ±4.7% | 96.77–106.42 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 98.05 → 98.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +4.0% | fora | 94.32 → 98.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.8% | fora | 94.45 → 98.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +4.8% | fora | 93.54 → 98.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +5.1% | fora | 93.30 → 98.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +6.6% | fora | 91.97 → 98.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +8.7% | fora | 90.19 → 98.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 100.25 → 98.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.3% | dentro | 100.38 → 98.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 94.81 → 98.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.1% | dentro | 94.22 → 98.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +2.5% | dentro | 95.64 → 98.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 96.25 → 98.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.0% | dentro | 97.12 → 98.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.0% | dentro | 97.12 → 98.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 96.47 → 98.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 98.77 → 98.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 99.57 → 98.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 102.50 → 98.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -5.6% | dentro | 103.86 → 98.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -2.4% | dentro | 100.51 → 98.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -3.1% | dentro | 101.15 → 98.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 100.18 → 98.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.2% | dentro | 101.27 → 98.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 101.61 → 98.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 91.97 → 91.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | +2.0% | fora | 90.19 → 91.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -8.3% | fora | 100.25 → 91.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -8.4% | fora | 100.38 → 91.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -3.0% | dentro | 94.81 → 91.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 94.22 → 91.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -3.8% | dentro | 95.64 → 91.97 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -4.4% | dentro | 96.25 → 91.97 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -5.3% | dentro | 97.12 → 91.97 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -5.3% | dentro | 97.12 → 91.97 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -4.7% | dentro | 96.47 → 91.97 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -6.9% | dentro | 98.77 → 91.97 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -7.6% | fora | 99.57 → 91.97 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -10.3% | fora | 102.50 → 91.97 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -11.4% | fora | 103.86 → 91.97 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -8.5% | fora | 100.51 → 91.97 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -9.1% | fora | 101.15 → 91.97 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -8.2% | fora | 100.18 → 91.97 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -9.2% | fora | 101.27 → 91.97 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -9.5% | fora | 101.61 → 91.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -5.8% | fora | 100.25 → 94.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -5.9% | fora | 100.38 → 94.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -0.4% | dentro | 94.81 → 94.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 94.22 → 94.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -1.2% | dentro | 95.64 → 94.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -1.8% | dentro | 96.25 → 94.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 97.12 → 94.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 97.12 → 94.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -2.1% | dentro | 96.47 → 94.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -4.4% | dentro | 98.77 → 94.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -5.1% | dentro | 99.57 → 94.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -7.8% | fora | 102.50 → 94.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -9.0% | fora | 103.86 → 94.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -6.0% | fora | 100.51 → 94.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -6.6% | fora | 101.15 → 94.47 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.