EL historial de movimiento esperado The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango60%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado60%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.1%
Error medio abs.2.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 105.78 | ±3.5% | 102.13–109.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 105.00 | ±4.2% | 100.62–109.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 101.59 | ±4.7% | 96.77–106.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 99.73 | ±5.0% | 94.78–104.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 98.05 | ±5.8% | 92.33–103.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 94.32 | ±5.7% | 88.94–99.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 94.45 | ±7.2% | 87.67–101.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 93.54 | ±6.5% | 87.41–99.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 93.30 | ±6.5% | 87.22–99.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 91.97 | ±7.4% | 85.14–98.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 90.19 | ±6.8% | 84.04–96.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 100.25 | ±8.4% | 91.85–108.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 100.38 | ±8.4% | 91.98–108.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 94.81 | ±8.4% | 86.86–102.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 94.22 | ±8.7% | 86.06–102.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 95.64 | ±9.1% | 86.89–104.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 96.25 | ±9.5% | 87.15–105.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 97.12 | ±9.8% | 87.62–106.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 97.12 | ±9.8% | 87.62–106.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 96.47 | ±10.2% | 86.62–106.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 98.77 | ±9.9% | 88.97–108.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 99.57 | ±9.9% | 89.72–109.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 102.50 | ±10.1% | 92.15–112.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 103.86 | ±9.4% | 94.11–113.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 100.51 | ±10.0% | 90.46–110.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 105.78 | ±5.3% | 100.18–111.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 105.00 | ±6.1% | 98.62–111.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 101.59 | ±6.8% | 94.67–108.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 99.73 | ±6.9% | 92.81–106.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 98.05 | ±7.1% | 91.10–105.00 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 105.00 → 104.54 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +2.9% | dentro | 101.59 → 104.54 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +4.8% | fuera | 99.73 → 104.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +6.6% | fuera | 98.05 → 104.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +10.8% | fuera | 94.32 → 104.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +10.7% | fuera | 94.45 → 104.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +11.8% | fuera | 93.54 → 104.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +12.0% | fuera | 93.30 → 104.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +13.7% | fuera | 91.97 → 104.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +15.9% | fuera | 90.19 → 104.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +4.3% | dentro | 100.25 → 104.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +4.1% | dentro | 100.38 → 104.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +10.3% | fuera | 94.81 → 104.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +11.0% | fuera | 94.22 → 104.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +9.3% | fuera | 95.64 → 104.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +8.6% | dentro | 96.25 → 104.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +7.6% | dentro | 97.12 → 104.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +7.6% | dentro | 97.12 → 104.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +8.4% | dentro | 96.47 → 104.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +5.8% | dentro | 98.77 → 104.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +5.0% | dentro | 99.57 → 104.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 102.50 → 104.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +0.7% | dentro | 103.86 → 104.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +4.0% | dentro | 100.51 → 104.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 101.15 → 104.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +4.4% | dentro | 100.18 → 104.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 101.27 → 104.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +2.9% | dentro | 101.61 → 104.54 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 98.05 → 98.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +4.0% | fuera | 94.32 → 98.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.8% | fuera | 94.45 → 98.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +4.8% | fuera | 93.54 → 98.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +5.1% | fuera | 93.30 → 98.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +6.6% | fuera | 91.97 → 98.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +8.7% | fuera | 90.19 → 98.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 100.25 → 98.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -2.3% | dentro | 100.38 → 98.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 94.81 → 98.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.1% | dentro | 94.22 → 98.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +2.5% | dentro | 95.64 → 98.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 96.25 → 98.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.0% | dentro | 97.12 → 98.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.0% | dentro | 97.12 → 98.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 96.47 → 98.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 98.77 → 98.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 99.57 → 98.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -4.3% | dentro | 102.50 → 98.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -5.6% | dentro | 103.86 → 98.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -2.4% | dentro | 100.51 → 98.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -3.1% | dentro | 101.15 → 98.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 100.18 → 98.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.2% | dentro | 101.27 → 98.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -3.5% | dentro | 101.61 → 98.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 91.97 → 91.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | +2.0% | fuera | 90.19 → 91.97 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -8.3% | fuera | 100.25 → 91.97 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -8.4% | fuera | 100.38 → 91.97 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -3.0% | dentro | 94.81 → 91.97 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 94.22 → 91.97 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -3.8% | dentro | 95.64 → 91.97 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.