EFA 预期波动历史 iShares MSCI EAFE ETF
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项140
收盘价处于区间内81%
|实际值| 低于预期值81%
平均预期波动幅度±2.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度1.8%
平均绝对误差1.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 102.87 | ±2.7% | 100.05–105.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 103.52 | ±1.5% | 101.97–105.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 102.75 | ±1.9% | 100.82–104.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 103.47 | ±1.9% | 101.45–105.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 103.39 | ±5.0% | 98.24–108.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 102.74 | ±2.5% | 100.19–105.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 102.90 | ±4.8% | 97.97–107.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 104.25 | ±3.9% | 100.14–108.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 104.03 | ±4.1% | 99.81–108.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 103.96 | ±5.0% | 98.76–109.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 102.89 | ±3.1% | 99.72–106.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 106.70 | ±3.6% | 102.85–110.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 106.05 | ±3.1% | 102.71–109.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 105.99 | ±3.2% | 102.65–109.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 105.00 | ±4.1% | 100.66–109.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 106.00 | ±4.4% | 101.34–110.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 105.00 | ±4.3% | 100.52–109.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 105.39 | ±3.8% | 101.36–109.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 105.96 | ±3.9% | 101.81–110.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 105.66 | ±4.3% | 101.11–110.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 105.82 | ±4.1% | 101.53–110.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 106.57 | ±3.3% | 103.06–110.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 107.81 | ±4.2% | 103.23–112.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 108.35 | ±3.9% | 104.15–112.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 107.31 | ±4.3% | 102.73–111.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 107.31 | ±4.3% | 102.73–111.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 102.87 | ±1.5% | 101.28–104.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 103.52 | ±2.4% | 101.08–105.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 102.75 | ±2.5% | 100.16–105.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 103.47 | ±2.6% | 100.80–106.14 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 103.52 → 103.55 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 102.75 → 103.55 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 103.47 → 103.55 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 103.39 → 103.55 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 102.74 → 103.55 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 102.90 → 103.55 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 104.25 → 103.55 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 104.03 → 103.55 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 103.96 → 103.55 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 102.89 → 103.55 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 106.70 → 103.55 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 106.05 → 103.55 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 105.99 → 103.55 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 103.55 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 106.00 → 103.55 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 103.55 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 105.39 → 103.55 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 105.96 → 103.55 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 105.66 → 103.55 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 105.82 → 103.55 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 106.57 → 103.55 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 107.81 → 103.55 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -4.4% | 区间外 | 108.35 → 103.55 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 107.31 → 103.55 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 107.31 → 103.55 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 107.06 → 103.55 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 106.41 → 103.55 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -3.9% | 区间外 | 107.76 → 103.55 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 103.39 → 103.40 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 102.74 → 103.40 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 102.90 → 103.40 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 104.25 → 103.40 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 104.03 → 103.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 103.96 → 103.40 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 102.89 → 103.40 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 106.70 → 103.40 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -2.5% | 区间外 | 106.05 → 103.40 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -2.4% | 区间外 | 105.99 → 103.40 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 103.40 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 106.00 → 103.40 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 103.40 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 105.39 → 103.40 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 105.96 → 103.40 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 105.66 → 103.40 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 105.82 → 103.40 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 106.57 → 103.40 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -4.1% | 区间外 | 107.81 → 103.40 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -4.6% | 区间外 | 108.35 → 103.40 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 107.31 → 103.40 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -3.6% | 区间内 | 107.31 → 103.40 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -3.4% | 区间外 | 107.06 → 103.40 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 106.41 → 103.40 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 107.76 → 103.40 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 103.96 → 103.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +1.0% | 区间外 | 102.89 → 103.96 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 106.70 → 103.96 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -2.0% | 区间外 | 106.05 → 103.96 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -1.9% | 区间外 | 105.99 → 103.96 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 103.96 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 106.00 → 103.96 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.