EBAY 预期波动历史 eBay Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内72%
|实际值| 低于预期值71%
平均预期波动幅度±4.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.3%
平均绝对误差2.2pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 120.25 | ±0.3% | 119.92–120.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 116.88 | ±2.9% | 113.44–120.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 116.41 | ±2.6% | 113.43–119.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 112.19 | ±3.4% | 108.34–116.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 111.70 | ±2.8% | 108.55–114.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 107.60 | ±4.7% | 102.55–112.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 107.06 | ±4.3% | 102.44–111.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 107.14 | ±4.4% | 102.41–111.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 106.40 | ±4.8% | 101.31–111.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 105.89 | ±4.9% | 100.72–111.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 109.28 | ±6.3% | 102.42–116.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 109.28 | ±6.3% | 102.42–116.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 110.17 | ±6.6% | 102.90–117.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 112.51 | ±7.1% | 104.49–120.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 109.90 | ±7.3% | 101.85–117.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 108.40 | ±7.2% | 100.64–116.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 108.77 | ±7.5% | 100.62–116.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 109.62 | ±7.1% | 101.88–117.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 107.25 | ±7.3% | 99.45–115.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 104.01 | ±7.7% | 95.98–112.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 104.62 | ±7.6% | 96.69–112.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 105.00 | ±8.3% | 96.31–113.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 103.19 | ±8.0% | 94.95–111.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 103.84 | ±7.9% | 95.67–112.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 106.90 | ±8.1% | 98.23–115.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 104.91 | ±8.2% | 96.33–113.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 105.49 | ±8.3% | 96.74–114.24 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 103.90 | ±8.3% | 95.23–112.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 120.25 | ±3.6% | 115.91–124.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 116.88 | ±3.9% | 112.29–121.47 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 112.19 → 112.19 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 111.70 → 112.19 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +4.3% | 区间外 | 107.60 → 112.19 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +4.8% | 区间外 | 107.06 → 112.19 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 107.14 → 112.19 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 106.40 → 112.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +6.0% | 区间外 | 105.89 → 112.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 109.28 → 112.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 109.28 → 112.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 110.17 → 112.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 112.51 → 112.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 109.90 → 112.19 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 108.40 → 112.19 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 108.77 → 112.19 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 109.62 → 112.19 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 107.25 → 112.19 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +7.9% | 区间外 | 104.01 → 112.19 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +7.2% | 区间内 | 104.62 → 112.19 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +6.8% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 112.19 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +8.7% | 区间外 | 103.19 → 112.19 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 103.84 → 112.19 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 106.90 → 112.19 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +6.9% | 区间内 | 104.91 → 112.19 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 105.49 → 112.19 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +8.0% | 区间内 | 103.90 → 112.19 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 106.40 → 106.40 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 105.89 → 106.40 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 109.28 → 106.40 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 109.28 → 106.40 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 110.17 → 106.40 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 112.51 → 106.40 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 109.90 → 106.40 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 108.40 → 106.40 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 108.77 → 106.40 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 109.62 → 106.40 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 107.25 → 106.40 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 104.01 → 106.40 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 104.62 → 106.40 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 106.40 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 103.19 → 106.40 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 103.84 → 106.40 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 106.90 → 106.40 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 104.91 → 106.40 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 105.49 → 106.40 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 103.90 → 106.40 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 109.28 → 107.90 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 109.28 → 107.90 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 110.17 → 107.90 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -4.1% | 区间外 | 112.51 → 107.90 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 109.90 → 107.90 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 108.40 → 107.90 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 108.77 → 107.90 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 109.62 → 107.90 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 107.25 → 107.90 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 104.01 → 107.90 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 104.62 → 107.90 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 105.00 → 107.90 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 103.19 → 107.90 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | +3.9% | 区间内 | 103.84 → 107.90 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 106.90 → 107.90 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.