DVN historial de movimiento esperado Devon Energy Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango83%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado83%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.7%
Error medio abs.3.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 50.83 | ±3.4% | 49.13–52.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 50.69 | ±3.9% | 48.70–52.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 50.00 | ±4.5% | 47.73–52.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 50.13 | ±4.6% | 47.81–52.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 48.33 | ±5.4% | 45.70–50.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 48.92 | ±5.7% | 46.12–51.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 47.88 | ±5.9% | 45.05–50.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 48.06 | ±6.1% | 45.13–50.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 47.98 | ±6.3% | 44.97–50.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 47.65 | ±6.5% | 44.57–50.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 47.16 | ±6.9% | 43.92–50.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 46.93 | ±8.6% | 42.89–50.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 46.96 | ±8.6% | 42.92–51.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 47.59 | ±8.5% | 43.54–51.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 48.61 | ±8.4% | 44.52–52.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 48.72 | ±8.6% | 44.52–52.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 48.59 | ±9.3% | 44.09–53.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 51.35 | ±9.2% | 46.65–56.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 49.84 | ±9.1% | 45.29–54.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 50.10 | ±9.2% | 45.51–54.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 49.94 | ±9.6% | 45.16–54.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 49.01 | ±9.4% | 44.38–53.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 48.50 | ±9.4% | 43.94–53.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 48.13 | ±9.5% | 43.57–52.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 48.26 | ±9.4% | 43.74–52.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 48.79 | ±9.8% | 43.98–53.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 50.83 | ±5.3% | 48.13–53.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 50.69 | ±6.1% | 47.61–53.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 50.00 | ±5.7% | 47.13–52.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 50.13 | ±6.0% | 47.12–53.14 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.1% | dentro | 50.69 → 50.73 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +1.5% | dentro | 50.00 → 50.73 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +1.2% | dentro | 50.13 → 50.73 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +5.0% | fuera | 48.33 → 50.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +3.7% | dentro | 48.92 → 50.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +6.0% | fuera | 47.88 → 50.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +5.6% | fuera | 48.06 → 50.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +5.7% | fuera | 47.98 → 50.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +6.5% | fuera | 47.65 → 50.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +7.6% | fuera | 47.16 → 50.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +8.1% | fuera | 46.93 → 50.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +8.0% | fuera | 46.96 → 50.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +6.6% | dentro | 47.59 → 50.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +4.4% | dentro | 48.61 → 50.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +4.1% | dentro | 48.72 → 50.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +4.4% | dentro | 48.59 → 50.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 51.35 → 50.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +1.8% | dentro | 49.84 → 50.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 50.10 → 50.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +1.6% | dentro | 49.94 → 50.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 49.01 → 50.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +4.6% | dentro | 48.50 → 50.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +5.4% | dentro | 48.13 → 50.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +5.1% | dentro | 48.26 → 50.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +4.0% | dentro | 48.79 → 50.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | +3.1% | dentro | 49.20 → 50.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +3.7% | dentro | 48.92 → 50.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +6.2% | dentro | 47.76 → 50.73 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 48.33 → 48.26 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 48.92 → 48.26 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.8% | dentro | 47.88 → 48.26 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.4% | dentro | 48.06 → 48.26 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 47.98 → 48.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 47.65 → 48.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.3% | dentro | 47.16 → 48.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.8% | dentro | 46.93 → 48.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.8% | dentro | 46.96 → 48.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 47.59 → 48.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 48.61 → 48.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 48.72 → 48.26 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 48.59 → 48.26 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -6.0% | dentro | 51.35 → 48.26 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -3.2% | dentro | 49.84 → 48.26 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -3.7% | dentro | 50.10 → 48.26 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -3.4% | dentro | 49.94 → 48.26 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -1.5% | dentro | 49.01 → 48.26 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -0.5% | dentro | 48.50 → 48.26 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +0.3% | dentro | 48.13 → 48.26 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 48.26 → 48.26 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -1.1% | dentro | 48.79 → 48.26 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -1.9% | dentro | 49.20 → 48.26 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 48.92 → 48.26 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +1.1% | dentro | 47.76 → 48.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 47.65 → 47.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 47.16 → 47.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +1.5% | dentro | 46.93 → 47.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +1.5% | dentro | 46.96 → 47.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 47.59 → 47.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 48.61 → 47.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 48.72 → 47.65 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.