DUK historial de movimiento esperado Duke Energy Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango63%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado63%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.4%
Error medio abs.2.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 119.27 | ±4.5% | 113.94–124.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 121.47 | ±4.9% | 115.50–127.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 119.64 | ±4.8% | 113.94–125.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 118.19 | ±5.0% | 112.29–124.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 116.58 | ±5.3% | 110.38–122.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 116.84 | ±5.7% | 110.19–123.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 115.20 | ±4.9% | 109.52–120.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 115.66 | ±5.6% | 109.19–122.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 113.84 | ±5.5% | 107.54–120.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 114.13 | ±5.7% | 107.61–120.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 113.74 | ±5.7% | 107.24–120.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 116.31 | ±6.1% | 109.19–123.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 116.39 | ±6.1% | 109.27–123.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 117.63 | ±5.8% | 110.75–124.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 117.65 | ±5.6% | 111.10–124.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 119.27 | ±5.9% | 112.27–126.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 121.47 | ±6.2% | 113.97–128.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 119.64 | ±5.9% | 112.54–126.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Dec 18 | 66 | 118.19 | ±5.9% | 111.17–125.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Dec 18 | 70 | 116.58 | ±6.3% | 109.25–123.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Dec 18 | 71 | 116.84 | ±6.3% | 109.44–124.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Dec 18 | 72 | 115.20 | ±6.1% | 108.12–122.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Dec 18 | 73 | 115.66 | ±6.2% | 108.51–122.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Dec 18 | 74 | 113.84 | ±6.5% | 106.47–121.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Dec 18 | 77 | 114.13 | ±6.1% | 107.13–121.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Dec 18 | 78 | 113.74 | ±7.2% | 105.54–121.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Dec 18 | 86 | 116.31 | ±7.0% | 108.11–124.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Dec 18 | 87 | 116.39 | ±7.1% | 108.17–124.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Dec 18 | 88 | 117.63 | ±7.0% | 109.38–125.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Dec 18 | 91 | 117.65 | ±7.2% | 109.20–126.10 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 121.47 → 121.47 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +1.5% | fuera | 119.64 → 121.47 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +2.8% | fuera | 118.19 → 121.47 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +4.2% | fuera | 116.58 → 121.47 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +4.0% | fuera | 116.84 → 121.47 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +5.4% | fuera | 115.20 → 121.47 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +5.0% | fuera | 115.66 → 121.47 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +6.7% | fuera | 113.84 → 121.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +6.4% | fuera | 114.13 → 121.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +6.8% | fuera | 113.74 → 121.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +4.4% | fuera | 116.31 → 121.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +4.4% | fuera | 116.39 → 121.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +3.3% | dentro | 117.63 → 121.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +3.2% | dentro | 117.65 → 121.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +3.4% | dentro | 117.45 → 121.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 119.02 → 121.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 119.02 → 121.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +2.0% | dentro | 119.10 → 121.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +1.6% | dentro | 119.52 → 121.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +0.9% | dentro | 120.43 → 121.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +0.2% | dentro | 121.24 → 121.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +0.8% | dentro | 120.55 → 121.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 121.73 → 121.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 121.73 → 121.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +0.2% | dentro | 121.18 → 121.47 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +1.1% | dentro | 120.20 → 121.47 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 120.27 → 121.47 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 120.27 → 121.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 117.65 → 117.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 117.45 → 117.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 119.02 → 117.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.7% | -1.3% | dentro | 119.02 → 117.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.8% | -1.3% | dentro | 119.10 → 117.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.7% | -1.7% | dentro | 119.52 → 117.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | -2.4% | fuera | 120.43 → 117.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | -3.1% | fuera | 121.24 → 117.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -2.5% | dentro | 120.55 → 117.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | -3.5% | fuera | 121.73 → 117.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | -3.5% | fuera | 121.73 → 117.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -3.0% | fuera | 121.18 → 117.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -2.2% | dentro | 120.20 → 117.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.0% | -2.3% | dentro | 120.27 → 117.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.8% | -2.3% | dentro | 120.27 → 117.53 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.