DOCU история ожидаемого движения DocuSign, Inc.
Каждый торговый день после закрытия рынка мы фиксируем, что опционный рынок закладывал в цены — по каждой экспирации, до того как исход стал известен. Когда экспирация наступает, фактический результат записывается рядом с исходной оценкой. Оценки никогда не пересматриваются задним числом. Как читать эту статистику · запись ведётся с Aug 31, 2026
Сравнения разрешены121
Закрытие внутри диапазона88%
|Фактическое| ниже ожидаемого88%
Среднее ожидаемое движение±8.7%
Среднее |фактическое| движение4.6%
Средняя абс. ошибка4.6pt
Подразумеваемая vs реализованная, по экспирации
Для каждой экспирации: янтарный контур — ожидаемое движение, зафиксированное ближе всего к дате экспирации; сплошная полоса — фактическое движение акции. Под полосами указаны значения со знаком.
ожидаемое (зафиксировано)фактический
Зафиксировано в данный момент (ожидается исход)
| Снимок | Истекает | DTE | Спот на тот момент | Ожидаемое движение | Диапазон | Метод |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 76.66 | ±4.4% | 73.27–80.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 74.05 | ±5.6% | 69.89–78.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 75.06 | ±6.1% | 70.50–79.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 72.31 | ±5.8% | 68.11–76.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 71.08 | ±6.8% | 66.28–75.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 70.50 | ±8.1% | 64.77–76.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 68.90 | ±7.4% | 63.81–73.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 67.75 | ±7.8% | 62.45–73.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 70.03 | ±7.7% | 64.67–75.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 68.81 | ±8.6% | 62.90–74.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 69.40 | ±9.0% | 63.12–75.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 66.78 | ±10.7% | 59.66–73.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 68.99 | ±10.6% | 61.67–76.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 68.13 | ±11.2% | 60.51–75.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 69.50 | ±11.0% | 61.83–77.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 69.11 | ±11.6% | 61.12–77.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 71.00 | ±12.5% | 62.12–79.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 69.40 | ±13.4% | 60.08–78.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 69.21 | ±13.5% | 59.88–78.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 65.94 | ±12.9% | 57.45–74.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 65.02 | ±12.9% | 56.65–73.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 63.66 | ±13.3% | 55.20–72.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 64.68 | ±14.1% | 55.58–73.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 68.40 | ±13.2% | 59.38–77.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 68.58 | ±13.5% | 59.28–77.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 69.41 | ±17.3% | 57.41–81.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 76.66 | ±7.2% | 71.12–82.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 74.05 | ±7.3% | 68.62–79.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 75.06 | ±8.4% | 68.77–81.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 72.31 | ±8.5% | 66.13–78.49 | em-1.0 |
Сохранённые снимки
| Снимок | Истёкшие | Ожидаемое | Фактический | Внутри диапазона? | Спот → закрытие |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.2% | +0.8% | внутри | 74.05 → 74.65 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -0.5% | внутри | 75.06 → 74.65 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +3.2% | внутри | 72.31 → 74.65 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +5.0% | за пределами | 71.08 → 74.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +5.9% | за пределами | 70.50 → 74.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +8.3% | за пределами | 68.90 → 74.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +10.2% | за пределами | 67.75 → 74.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +6.6% | внутри | 70.03 → 74.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +8.5% | за пределами | 68.81 → 74.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +7.6% | внутри | 69.40 → 74.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | +11.8% | за пределами | 66.78 → 74.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | +8.2% | внутри | 68.99 → 74.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +9.6% | внутри | 68.13 → 74.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | +7.4% | внутри | 69.50 → 74.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +8.0% | внутри | 69.11 → 74.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +5.1% | внутри | 71.00 → 74.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | +7.6% | внутри | 69.40 → 74.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | +7.9% | внутри | 69.21 → 74.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +13.2% | за пределами | 65.94 → 74.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +14.8% | за пределами | 65.02 → 74.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +17.3% | за пределами | 63.66 → 74.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +15.4% | за пределами | 64.68 → 74.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +9.1% | внутри | 68.40 → 74.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +8.9% | внутри | 68.58 → 74.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | +7.6% | внутри | 69.41 → 74.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | +15.0% | внутри | 64.91 → 74.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | +13.4% | внутри | 65.81 → 74.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | +14.0% | внутри | 65.46 → 74.65 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.0% | внутри | 71.08 → 71.08 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.8% | внутри | 70.50 → 71.08 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +3.2% | внутри | 68.90 → 71.08 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +4.9% | за пределами | 67.75 → 71.08 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.5% | внутри | 70.03 → 71.08 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | +3.3% | внутри | 68.81 → 71.08 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +2.4% | внутри | 69.40 → 71.08 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +6.4% | внутри | 66.78 → 71.08 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +3.0% | внутри | 68.99 → 71.08 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +4.3% | внутри | 68.13 → 71.08 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +2.3% | внутри | 69.50 → 71.08 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +2.9% | внутри | 69.11 → 71.08 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +0.1% | внутри | 71.00 → 71.08 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +2.4% | внутри | 69.40 → 71.08 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +2.7% | внутри | 69.21 → 71.08 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +7.8% | внутри | 65.94 → 71.08 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +9.3% | внутри | 65.02 → 71.08 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +11.7% | за пределами | 63.66 → 71.08 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +9.9% | за пределами | 64.68 → 71.08 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +3.9% | внутри | 68.40 → 71.08 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | +3.7% | внутри | 68.58 → 71.08 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.3% | +2.4% | внутри | 69.41 → 71.08 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.6% | +9.5% | внутри | 64.91 → 71.08 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.0% | +8.0% | внутри | 65.81 → 71.08 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +8.6% | внутри | 65.46 → 71.08 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.9% | +0.3% | внутри | 68.81 → 69.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.3% | -0.6% | внутри | 69.40 → 69.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | +3.3% | внутри | 66.78 → 69.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | +0.0% | внутри | 68.99 → 69.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | +1.3% | внутри | 68.13 → 69.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -0.7% | внутри | 69.50 → 69.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -0.1% | внутри | 69.11 → 69.01 |
Результаты сравнивают зафиксированный диапазон с ценой закрытия на день экспирации. Версия метода указана в каждой строке, если она отличается; текущая: em-1.0.