DLTR historial de movimiento esperado Dollar Tree, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango56%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado56%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.9%
Error medio abs.3.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 123.15 | ±3.8% | 118.50–127.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 124.18 | ±4.5% | 118.56–129.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 121.76 | ±5.2% | 115.47–128.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 116.47 | ±4.5% | 111.22–121.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 118.64 | ±6.0% | 111.55–125.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 118.62 | ±6.3% | 111.16–126.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 116.30 | ±6.6% | 108.61–124.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 116.19 | ±7.3% | 107.66–124.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 113.19 | ±6.8% | 105.47–120.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 112.16 | ±6.6% | 104.77–119.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 114.32 | ±7.0% | 106.37–122.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 117.20 | ±8.2% | 107.58–126.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 114.15 | ±8.6% | 104.30–124.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 111.96 | ±8.5% | 102.47–121.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 113.75 | ±8.8% | 103.72–123.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 113.22 | ±9.2% | 102.80–123.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 114.31 | ±9.2% | 103.78–124.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 115.49 | ±8.7% | 105.47–125.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 119.55 | ±9.3% | 108.47–130.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 119.39 | ±9.3% | 108.34–130.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 119.29 | ±9.2% | 108.36–130.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 119.73 | ±9.6% | 108.25–131.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 125.76 | ±10.0% | 113.23–138.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 131.42 | ±9.6% | 118.87–143.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 131.51 | ±9.9% | 118.51–144.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 123.15 | ±5.7% | 116.19–130.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 124.18 | ±5.6% | 117.23–131.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 121.76 | ±6.4% | 113.94–129.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 116.47 | ±6.0% | 109.47–123.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 118.64 | ±7.1% | 110.20–127.08 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 124.18 → 124.18 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.0% | dentro | 121.76 → 124.18 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +6.6% | fuera | 116.47 → 124.18 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +4.7% | fuera | 118.64 → 124.18 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +4.7% | fuera | 118.62 → 124.18 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +6.8% | fuera | 116.30 → 124.18 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +6.9% | fuera | 116.19 → 124.18 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +9.7% | fuera | 113.19 → 124.18 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +10.7% | fuera | 112.16 → 124.18 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +8.6% | fuera | 114.32 → 124.18 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +6.0% | dentro | 117.20 → 124.18 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +8.8% | fuera | 114.15 → 124.18 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +10.9% | fuera | 111.96 → 124.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +9.2% | fuera | 113.75 → 124.18 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +9.7% | fuera | 113.22 → 124.18 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +8.6% | fuera | 114.31 → 124.18 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +7.5% | dentro | 115.49 → 124.18 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | +3.9% | dentro | 119.55 → 124.18 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +4.0% | dentro | 119.39 → 124.18 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +4.1% | dentro | 119.29 → 124.18 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +3.7% | dentro | 119.73 → 124.18 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -1.3% | dentro | 125.76 → 124.18 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -5.5% | dentro | 131.42 → 124.18 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -5.6% | dentro | 131.51 → 124.18 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -6.3% | dentro | 132.58 → 124.18 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -5.4% | dentro | 131.25 → 124.18 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -1.9% | dentro | 126.59 → 124.18 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 127.81 → 124.18 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 118.64 → 118.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 118.62 → 118.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +2.0% | dentro | 116.30 → 118.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.1% | dentro | 116.19 → 118.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +4.8% | fuera | 113.19 → 118.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +5.8% | fuera | 112.16 → 118.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 114.32 → 118.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 117.20 → 118.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.9% | dentro | 114.15 → 118.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +6.0% | dentro | 111.96 → 118.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +4.3% | dentro | 113.75 → 118.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +4.8% | dentro | 113.22 → 118.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +3.8% | dentro | 114.31 → 118.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +2.7% | dentro | 115.49 → 118.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -0.8% | dentro | 119.55 → 118.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 119.39 → 118.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -0.5% | dentro | 119.29 → 118.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 119.73 → 118.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -5.7% | dentro | 125.76 → 118.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -9.7% | fuera | 131.42 → 118.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -9.8% | fuera | 131.51 → 118.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -10.5% | fuera | 132.58 → 118.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -9.6% | fuera | 131.25 → 118.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -6.3% | dentro | 126.59 → 118.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -7.2% | dentro | 127.81 → 118.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 112.16 → 112.16 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -1.9% | dentro | 114.32 → 112.16 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -4.3% | dentro | 117.20 → 112.16 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -1.7% | dentro | 114.15 → 112.16 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +0.2% | dentro | 111.96 → 112.16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -1.4% | dentro | 113.75 → 112.16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -0.9% | dentro | 113.22 → 112.16 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.