DIS 预期波动历史 The Walt Disney Company
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内73%
|实际值| 低于预期值73%
平均预期波动幅度±3.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.4%
平均绝对误差1.8pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 110.78 | ±0.6% | 110.08–111.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 108.79 | ±1.8% | 106.83–110.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 108.50 | ±1.9% | 106.42–110.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 108.01 | ±2.4% | 105.45–110.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 107.02 | ±2.7% | 104.08–109.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 104.22 | ±3.2% | 100.93–107.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 104.05 | ±3.2% | 100.69–107.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 103.50 | ±3.3% | 100.07–106.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 101.99 | ±3.6% | 98.33–105.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 101.43 | ±4.1% | 97.26–105.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 103.90 | ±4.9% | 98.83–108.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 103.75 | ±4.9% | 98.69–108.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 104.10 | ±5.1% | 98.75–109.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 102.70 | ±5.5% | 97.06–108.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 105.41 | ±5.3% | 99.78–111.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 107.17 | ±5.9% | 100.88–113.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 106.30 | ±5.7% | 100.22–112.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 108.32 | ±5.7% | 102.14–114.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 106.55 | ±5.9% | 100.28–112.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 105.05 | ±6.3% | 98.42–111.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 104.15 | ±6.3% | 97.58–110.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 104.73 | ±6.2% | 98.22–111.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 105.18 | ±6.3% | 98.58–111.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 105.37 | ±6.3% | 98.77–111.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 107.25 | ±6.6% | 100.19–114.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 108.52 | ±6.6% | 101.40–115.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 106.30 | ±6.8% | 99.02–113.58 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 107.69 | ±6.6% | 100.55–114.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 110.78 | ±3.0% | 107.44–114.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 108.79 | ±3.4% | 105.09–112.49 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 108.01 → 108.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 107.02 → 108.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +3.7% | 区间外 | 104.22 → 108.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +3.8% | 区间外 | 104.05 → 108.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +4.4% | 区间外 | 103.50 → 108.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 101.99 → 108.05 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +6.5% | 区间外 | 101.43 → 108.05 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 103.90 → 108.05 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 103.75 → 108.05 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 104.10 → 108.05 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +5.2% | 区间外 | 102.70 → 108.05 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 105.41 → 108.05 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 107.17 → 108.05 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 106.30 → 108.05 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 108.32 → 108.05 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 106.55 → 108.05 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 105.05 → 108.05 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.7% | 区间内 | 104.15 → 108.05 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 104.73 → 108.05 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 105.18 → 108.05 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 105.37 → 108.05 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 107.25 → 108.05 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 108.52 → 108.05 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 106.30 → 108.05 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 107.69 → 108.05 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 101.99 → 102.19 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 101.43 → 102.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 103.90 → 102.19 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 103.75 → 102.19 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 104.10 → 102.19 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 102.70 → 102.19 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 105.41 → 102.19 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -4.7% | 区间外 | 107.17 → 102.19 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 106.30 → 102.19 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 108.32 → 102.19 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 106.55 → 102.19 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 105.05 → 102.19 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 104.15 → 102.19 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 104.73 → 102.19 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 105.18 → 102.19 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 105.37 → 102.19 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 107.25 → 102.19 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 108.52 → 102.19 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 106.30 → 102.19 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 107.69 → 102.19 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.0% | +2.2% | 区间外 | 103.90 → 106.15 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.0% | +2.3% | 区间外 | 103.75 → 106.15 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 104.10 → 106.15 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.5% | +3.4% | 区间外 | 102.70 → 106.15 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 105.41 → 106.15 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 107.17 → 106.15 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 106.30 → 106.15 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 108.32 → 106.15 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 106.55 → 106.15 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 105.05 → 106.15 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 104.15 → 106.15 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 104.73 → 106.15 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 105.18 → 106.15 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 105.37 → 106.15 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 107.25 → 106.15 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.