DIA historial de movimiento esperado State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas139
Cierre dentro del rango62%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado62%
Movimiento esperado promedio±2.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio1.7%
Error medio abs.0.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 519.56 | ±1.2% | 513.23–525.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 518.25 | ±1.6% | 510.10–526.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 515.19 | ±1.6% | 506.74–523.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 516.18 | ±1.6% | 507.90–524.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 516.24 | ±1.8% | 506.84–525.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 511.57 | ±2.0% | 501.35–521.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 510.99 | ±2.1% | 500.26–521.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 514.65 | ±2.1% | 503.80–525.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 512.19 | ±2.3% | 500.34–524.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 510.87 | ±2.4% | 498.37–523.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 508.60 | ±2.7% | 494.75–522.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 517.90 | ±3.1% | 502.05–533.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 518.74 | ±3.1% | 502.89–534.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 519.65 | ±3.0% | 503.95–535.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 516.38 | ±3.1% | 500.13–532.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 518.49 | ±3.3% | 501.41–535.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 515.50 | ±3.7% | 496.38–534.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 521.58 | ±3.6% | 502.98–540.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 524.51 | ±3.5% | 505.94–543.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 526.02 | ±3.6% | 507.27–544.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 520.57 | ±3.9% | 500.01–541.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 524.90 | ±3.8% | 505.05–544.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 527.85 | ±3.7% | 508.43–547.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 534.08 | ±3.6% | 514.78–553.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 532.34 | ±3.7% | 512.84–551.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 536.58 | ±3.7% | 516.93–556.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 519.56 | ±2.0% | 509.19–529.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 518.25 | ±2.3% | 506.40–530.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 515.19 | ±2.3% | 503.37–527.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 516.18 | ±2.2% | 504.81–527.55 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | +0.2% | fuera | 518.25 → 519.10 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.8% | dentro | 515.19 → 519.10 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.6% | dentro | 516.18 → 519.10 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.3% | +0.6% | dentro | 516.24 → 519.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.5% | +1.5% | fuera | 511.57 → 519.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +1.6% | fuera | 510.99 → 519.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 514.65 → 519.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 512.19 → 519.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +1.6% | dentro | 510.87 → 519.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 508.60 → 519.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +0.2% | dentro | 517.90 → 519.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 518.74 → 519.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 519.65 → 519.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 516.38 → 519.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 518.49 → 519.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +0.7% | dentro | 515.50 → 519.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 521.58 → 519.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -1.0% | dentro | 524.51 → 519.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | -1.3% | dentro | 526.02 → 519.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 520.57 → 519.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -1.1% | dentro | 524.90 → 519.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 527.85 → 519.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -2.8% | dentro | 534.08 → 519.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -2.5% | dentro | 532.34 → 519.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -3.3% | dentro | 536.58 → 519.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -2.2% | dentro | 530.82 → 519.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -1.6% | dentro | 527.75 → 519.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -2.4% | dentro | 531.84 → 519.10 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 516.24 → 516.11 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.9% | fuera | 511.57 → 516.11 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +1.0% | fuera | 510.99 → 516.11 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 514.65 → 516.11 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 512.19 → 516.11 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +1.0% | dentro | 510.87 → 516.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +1.5% | dentro | 508.60 → 516.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 517.90 → 516.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 518.74 → 516.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 519.65 → 516.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 516.38 → 516.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.5% | dentro | 518.49 → 516.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.1% | dentro | 515.50 → 516.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 521.58 → 516.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -1.6% | dentro | 524.51 → 516.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -1.9% | dentro | 526.02 → 516.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.9% | dentro | 520.57 → 516.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -1.7% | dentro | 524.90 → 516.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 527.85 → 516.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -3.4% | fuera | 534.08 → 516.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -3.0% | fuera | 532.34 → 516.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -3.8% | fuera | 536.58 → 516.11 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -2.8% | dentro | 530.82 → 516.11 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -2.2% | dentro | 527.75 → 516.11 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.0% | dentro | 531.84 → 516.11 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 510.87 → 511.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.5% | dentro | 508.60 → 511.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 517.90 → 511.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | -1.5% | dentro | 518.74 → 511.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | -1.6% | dentro | 519.65 → 511.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 516.38 → 511.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -1.4% | dentro | 518.49 → 511.10 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.