DG historial de movimiento esperado Dollar General Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango76%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado76%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.4%
Error medio abs.2.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 134.36 | ±0.8% | 133.24–135.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 130.08 | ±2.4% | 127.01–133.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 125.00 | ±2.8% | 121.53–128.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 127.73 | ±3.8% | 122.92–132.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 124.27 | ±3.9% | 119.36–129.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 122.14 | ±4.3% | 116.93–127.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 123.37 | ±4.6% | 117.72–129.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 119.32 | ±4.7% | 113.69–124.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 118.94 | ±5.0% | 112.94–124.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 118.93 | ±5.4% | 112.47–125.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 122.63 | ±6.8% | 114.25–131.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 122.07 | ±6.9% | 113.59–130.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 122.70 | ±7.2% | 113.86–131.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 122.41 | ±7.6% | 113.11–131.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 124.33 | ±7.4% | 115.08–133.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 124.92 | ±7.9% | 115.02–134.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 125.52 | ±7.8% | 115.67–135.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 128.74 | ±8.0% | 118.49–138.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 124.06 | ±8.2% | 113.86–134.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 124.57 | ±8.6% | 113.82–135.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 124.50 | ±8.6% | 113.75–135.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 127.46 | ±8.4% | 116.71–138.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 133.40 | ±8.5% | 122.10–144.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 131.26 | ±8.8% | 119.69–142.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 131.20 | ±9.1% | 119.22–143.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 131.09 | ±9.3% | 118.86–143.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 126.75 | ±9.4% | 114.83–138.68 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 126.33 | ±9.4% | 114.41–138.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 134.36 | ±3.6% | 129.54–139.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 130.08 | ±4.4% | 124.35–135.81 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | -0.4% | dentro | 127.73 → 127.23 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.4% | fuera | 124.27 → 127.23 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +4.2% | fuera | 122.14 → 127.23 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +3.1% | dentro | 123.37 → 127.23 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +6.6% | fuera | 119.32 → 127.23 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +7.0% | fuera | 118.94 → 127.23 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +7.0% | fuera | 118.93 → 127.23 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +3.8% | dentro | 122.63 → 127.23 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +4.2% | dentro | 122.07 → 127.23 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.7% | dentro | 122.70 → 127.23 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.9% | dentro | 122.41 → 127.23 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +2.3% | dentro | 124.33 → 127.23 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +1.8% | dentro | 124.92 → 127.23 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 125.52 → 127.23 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -1.2% | dentro | 128.74 → 127.23 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 124.06 → 127.23 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +2.1% | dentro | 124.57 → 127.23 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +2.2% | dentro | 124.50 → 127.23 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 127.46 → 127.23 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -4.6% | dentro | 133.40 → 127.23 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -3.1% | dentro | 131.26 → 127.23 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -3.0% | dentro | 131.20 → 127.23 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.9% | dentro | 131.09 → 127.23 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 126.75 → 127.23 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +0.7% | dentro | 126.33 → 127.23 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 118.94 → 118.94 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 118.93 → 118.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -3.0% | dentro | 122.63 → 118.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -2.6% | dentro | 122.07 → 118.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -3.1% | dentro | 122.70 → 118.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -2.8% | dentro | 122.41 → 118.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -4.3% | dentro | 124.33 → 118.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -4.8% | dentro | 124.92 → 118.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -5.2% | dentro | 125.52 → 118.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -7.6% | fuera | 128.74 → 118.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -4.1% | dentro | 124.06 → 118.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -4.5% | dentro | 124.57 → 118.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -4.5% | dentro | 124.50 → 118.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -6.7% | dentro | 127.46 → 118.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -10.8% | fuera | 133.40 → 118.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -9.4% | fuera | 131.26 → 118.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -9.3% | fuera | 131.20 → 118.94 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -9.3% | fuera | 131.09 → 118.94 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -6.2% | dentro | 126.75 → 118.94 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -5.8% | dentro | 126.33 → 118.94 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 122.63 → 124.84 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | +2.3% | dentro | 122.07 → 124.84 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | +1.7% | dentro | 122.70 → 124.84 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | +2.0% | dentro | 122.41 → 124.84 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 124.33 → 124.84 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 124.92 → 124.84 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -0.5% | dentro | 125.52 → 124.84 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -3.0% | dentro | 128.74 → 124.84 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | +0.6% | dentro | 124.06 → 124.84 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 124.57 → 124.84 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 124.50 → 124.84 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -2.1% | dentro | 127.46 → 124.84 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -6.4% | fuera | 133.40 → 124.84 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 131.26 → 124.84 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -4.8% | dentro | 131.20 → 124.84 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.