DELL 预期波动历史 Dell Technologies Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内66%
|实际值| 低于预期值66%
平均预期波动幅度±9.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度8.1%
平均绝对误差4.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 451.01 | ±0.5% | 448.68–453.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 505.80 | ±4.9% | 481.10–530.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 572.99 | ±5.1% | 543.99–601.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 585.00 | ±5.8% | 550.98–619.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 575.10 | ±6.7% | 536.38–613.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 579.89 | ±6.9% | 539.79–619.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 574.16 | ±7.4% | 531.94–616.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 551.75 | ±7.5% | 510.32–593.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 562.41 | ±8.5% | 514.51–610.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 541.10 | ±9.3% | 490.62–591.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 554.31 | ±12.5% | 485.24–623.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 552.95 | ±12.5% | 483.88–622.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 574.51 | ±12.5% | 502.49–646.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 571.58 | ±12.8% | 498.20–644.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 590.90 | ±13.7% | 510.05–671.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 566.00 | ±14.5% | 484.10–647.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 544.31 | ±14.1% | 467.41–621.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 538.00 | ±14.3% | 461.00–615.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 566.49 | ±15.4% | 479.49–653.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 507.75 | ±15.0% | 431.60–583.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 534.53 | ±16.1% | 448.65–620.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 532.50 | ±16.5% | 444.77–620.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 522.44 | ±16.8% | 434.74–610.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 522.09 | ±16.8% | 434.39–609.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 515.40 | ±16.9% | 428.40–602.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 487.69 | ±17.0% | 404.74–570.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 458.12 | ±19.8% | 367.52–548.72 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 460.08 | ±19.1% | 372.08–548.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 451.01 | ±7.9% | 415.41–486.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 505.80 | ±8.2% | 464.23–547.38 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 585.00 → 586.06 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 575.10 → 586.06 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 579.89 → 586.06 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 574.16 → 586.06 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +6.2% | 区间外 | 551.75 → 586.06 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 562.41 → 586.06 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | +8.3% | 区间外 | 541.10 → 586.06 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 554.31 → 586.06 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +6.0% | 区间内 | 552.95 → 586.06 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 574.51 → 586.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 571.58 → 586.06 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 590.90 → 586.06 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 566.00 → 586.06 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 544.31 → 586.06 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | +8.9% | 区间内 | 538.00 → 586.06 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 566.49 → 586.06 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.4% | +15.4% | 区间外 | 507.75 → 586.06 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | +9.6% | 区间内 | 534.53 → 586.06 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +10.1% | 区间内 | 532.50 → 586.06 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +12.2% | 区间内 | 522.44 → 586.06 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +12.3% | 区间内 | 522.09 → 586.06 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +13.7% | 区间内 | 515.40 → 586.06 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.6% | +20.2% | 区间外 | 487.69 → 586.06 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.8% | +27.9% | 区间外 | 458.12 → 586.06 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.0% | +27.4% | 区间外 | 460.08 → 586.06 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 562.41 → 562.52 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.6% | +4.0% | 区间外 | 541.10 → 562.52 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 554.31 → 562.52 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 552.95 → 562.52 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 574.51 → 562.52 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 571.58 → 562.52 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 590.90 → 562.52 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.5% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 566.00 → 562.52 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 544.31 → 562.52 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 538.00 → 562.52 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.8% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 566.49 → 562.52 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | +10.8% | 区间内 | 507.75 → 562.52 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.6% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 534.53 → 562.52 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.2% | +5.6% | 区间内 | 532.50 → 562.52 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.4% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 522.44 → 562.52 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.4% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 522.09 → 562.52 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.6% | +9.1% | 区间内 | 515.40 → 562.52 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.0% | +15.3% | 区间外 | 487.69 → 562.52 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±17.7% | +22.8% | 区间外 | 458.12 → 562.52 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±16.5% | +22.3% | 区间外 | 460.08 → 562.52 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 554.31 → 562.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 552.95 → 562.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 574.51 → 562.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 571.58 → 562.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 590.90 → 562.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 566.00 → 562.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 544.31 → 562.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.3% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 538.00 → 562.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.5% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 566.49 → 562.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.5% | +10.9% | 区间外 | 507.75 → 562.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.3% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 534.53 → 562.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.0% | +5.7% | 区间内 | 532.50 → 562.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.5% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 522.44 → 562.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.5% | +7.8% | 区间内 | 522.09 → 562.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.7% | +9.2% | 区间内 | 515.40 → 562.89 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.