DECK 预期波动历史 Deckers Outdoor Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内77%
|实际值| 低于预期值77%
平均预期波动幅度±5.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.4%
平均绝对误差2.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 85.71 | ±0.9% | 84.94–86.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 82.82 | ±2.2% | 80.97–84.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 84.27 | ±2.9% | 81.80–86.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 82.89 | ±3.8% | 79.74–86.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 82.58 | ±4.1% | 79.16–86.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 80.38 | ±4.3% | 76.91–83.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 81.39 | ±4.8% | 77.51–85.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 80.21 | ±4.8% | 76.33–84.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 79.14 | ±6.1% | 74.29–83.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 79.49 | ±6.3% | 74.47–84.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 80.53 | ±7.5% | 74.48–86.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 80.05 | ±7.4% | 74.12–85.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 80.35 | ±7.4% | 74.38–86.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 78.83 | ±8.0% | 72.53–85.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 78.97 | ±8.9% | 71.92–86.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 78.26 | ±8.4% | 71.66–84.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 80.40 | ±8.7% | 73.42–87.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 79.52 | ±8.3% | 72.92–86.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 80.40 | ±9.1% | 73.10–87.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 79.88 | ±9.1% | 72.58–87.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 80.73 | ±9.2% | 73.28–88.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 82.95 | ±9.3% | 75.25–90.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 85.81 | ±9.2% | 77.91–93.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 85.61 | ±9.3% | 77.66–93.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 84.05 | ±9.5% | 76.05–92.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 83.97 | ±9.6% | 75.88–92.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 84.75 | ±9.9% | 76.41–93.11 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 87.33 | ±10.0% | 78.61–96.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 85.71 | ±10.6% | 76.66–94.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 82.82 | ±10.1% | 74.42–91.22 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 82.89 → 82.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 82.58 → 82.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 80.38 → 82.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 81.39 → 82.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 80.21 → 82.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +4.7% | 区间外 | 79.14 → 82.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +4.3% | 区间内 | 79.49 → 82.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 80.53 → 82.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 80.05 → 82.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 80.35 → 82.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +5.2% | 区间内 | 78.83 → 82.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 78.97 → 82.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 78.26 → 82.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 80.40 → 82.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 79.52 → 82.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 80.40 → 82.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.8% | 区间内 | 79.88 → 82.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 80.73 → 82.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 82.95 → 82.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 85.81 → 82.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 85.61 → 82.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 84.05 → 82.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 83.97 → 82.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 84.75 → 82.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 87.33 → 82.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 79.14 → 79.12 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 79.49 → 79.12 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 80.53 → 79.12 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 80.05 → 79.12 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 80.35 → 79.12 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 78.83 → 79.12 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 78.97 → 79.12 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 78.26 → 79.12 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 80.40 → 79.12 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 79.52 → 79.12 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 80.40 → 79.12 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 79.88 → 79.12 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 80.73 → 79.12 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 82.95 → 79.12 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 85.81 → 79.12 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 85.61 → 79.12 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 84.05 → 79.12 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 83.97 → 79.12 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 84.75 → 79.12 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -9.4% | 区间外 | 87.33 → 79.12 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -2.3% | 区间内 | 80.53 → 78.67 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 80.05 → 78.67 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 80.35 → 78.67 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 78.83 → 78.67 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 78.97 → 78.67 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 78.26 → 78.67 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 80.40 → 78.67 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 79.52 → 78.67 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 80.40 → 78.67 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 79.88 → 78.67 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 80.73 → 78.67 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 82.95 → 78.67 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -8.3% | 区间外 | 85.81 → 78.67 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.4% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 85.61 → 78.67 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 84.05 → 78.67 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.