DECK historial de movimiento esperado Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango76%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado76%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.7%
Error medio abs.2.7pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 87.24 | ±9.9% | 78.59–95.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 85.71 | ±10.6% | 76.66–94.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 82.82 | ±10.1% | 74.42–91.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 84.27 | ±11.5% | 74.57–93.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 82.89 | ±10.0% | 74.64–91.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 82.58 | ±10.5% | 73.93–91.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 80.38 | ±10.3% | 72.08–88.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 81.39 | ±10.4% | 72.96–89.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 80.21 | ±10.9% | 71.46–88.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 79.14 | ±10.4% | 70.94–87.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 79.49 | ±11.4% | 70.44–88.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 80.53 | ±11.0% | 71.68–89.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 80.05 | ±12.0% | 70.45–89.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 80.35 | ±11.6% | 71.00–89.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 78.83 | ±12.4% | 69.08–88.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 78.97 | ±12.3% | 69.22–88.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 78.26 | ±11.2% | 69.51–87.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 80.40 | ±13.1% | 69.85–90.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 79.52 | ±13.5% | 68.77–90.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 80.40 | ±12.9% | 70.00–90.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 79.88 | ±13.0% | 69.48–90.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 80.73 | ±13.3% | 70.03–91.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 82.95 | ±13.0% | 72.15–93.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 85.81 | ±13.5% | 74.21–97.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 85.61 | ±13.8% | 73.81–97.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 87.24 | ±10.7% | 77.94–96.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 85.71 | ±10.9% | 76.36–95.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 82.82 | ±10.8% | 73.87–91.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 84.27 | ±11.6% | 74.47–94.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 82.89 | ±10.9% | 73.84–91.94 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 85.71 → 85.71 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | +3.5% | fuera | 82.82 → 85.71 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +1.7% | dentro | 84.27 → 85.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +3.4% | dentro | 82.89 → 85.71 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +3.8% | dentro | 82.58 → 85.71 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +6.6% | fuera | 80.38 → 85.71 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +5.3% | fuera | 81.39 → 85.71 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +6.9% | fuera | 80.21 → 85.71 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | +8.3% | fuera | 79.14 → 85.71 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +7.8% | fuera | 79.49 → 85.71 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +6.4% | dentro | 80.53 → 85.71 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +7.1% | dentro | 80.05 → 85.71 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +6.7% | dentro | 80.35 → 85.71 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +8.7% | fuera | 78.83 → 85.71 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | +8.5% | dentro | 78.97 → 85.71 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +9.5% | fuera | 78.26 → 85.71 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +6.6% | dentro | 80.40 → 85.71 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +7.8% | dentro | 79.52 → 85.71 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +6.6% | dentro | 80.40 → 85.71 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +7.3% | dentro | 79.88 → 85.71 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +6.2% | dentro | 80.73 → 85.71 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +3.3% | dentro | 82.95 → 85.71 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 85.81 → 85.71 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 85.61 → 85.71 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +2.0% | dentro | 84.05 → 85.71 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +2.1% | dentro | 83.97 → 85.71 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 84.75 → 85.71 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -1.9% | dentro | 87.33 → 85.71 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 82.89 → 82.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 82.58 → 82.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +3.1% | fuera | 80.38 → 82.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +1.8% | dentro | 81.39 → 82.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.3% | fuera | 80.21 → 82.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +4.7% | fuera | 79.14 → 82.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +4.3% | dentro | 79.49 → 82.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.9% | dentro | 80.53 → 82.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +3.5% | dentro | 80.05 → 82.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 80.35 → 82.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +5.2% | dentro | 78.83 → 82.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +5.0% | dentro | 78.97 → 82.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +5.9% | dentro | 78.26 → 82.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +3.1% | dentro | 80.40 → 82.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +4.2% | dentro | 79.52 → 82.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.1% | dentro | 80.40 → 82.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 79.88 → 82.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +2.7% | dentro | 80.73 → 82.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 82.95 → 82.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -3.4% | dentro | 85.81 → 82.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -3.2% | dentro | 85.61 → 82.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -1.4% | dentro | 84.05 → 82.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 83.97 → 82.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 84.75 → 82.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -5.1% | dentro | 87.33 → 82.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.0% | dentro | 79.14 → 79.12 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | -0.5% | dentro | 79.49 → 79.12 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 80.53 → 79.12 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -1.2% | dentro | 80.05 → 79.12 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -1.5% | dentro | 80.35 → 79.12 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 78.83 → 79.12 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +0.2% | dentro | 78.97 → 79.12 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.