DDOG 预期波动历史 Datadog, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内36%
|实际值| 低于预期值36%
平均预期波动幅度±8.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度13.6%
平均绝对误差7.6pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 260.36 | ±5.9% | 244.99–275.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 247.11 | ±7.2% | 229.28–264.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 269.33 | ±7.4% | 249.33–289.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 281.80 | ±7.0% | 262.00–301.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 293.00 | ±8.2% | 269.07–316.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 273.80 | ±8.5% | 250.65–296.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 271.53 | ±9.3% | 246.21–296.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 278.24 | ±9.5% | 251.81–304.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 276.39 | ±9.6% | 249.97–302.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 277.22 | ±11.0% | 246.77–307.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 276.46 | ±11.8% | 243.94–308.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 248.30 | ±12.9% | 216.38–280.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 249.28 | ±13.0% | 216.75–281.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 242.00 | ±13.3% | 209.78–274.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 231.10 | ±13.2% | 200.60–261.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 236.66 | ±13.3% | 205.29–268.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 234.70 | ±14.1% | 201.57–267.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 229.50 | ±14.7% | 195.88–263.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 230.38 | ±14.9% | 195.96–264.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 220.50 | ±14.8% | 187.85–253.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 223.63 | ±15.6% | 188.71–258.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 224.30 | ±16.1% | 188.13–260.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 209.89 | ±15.9% | 176.56–243.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 212.80 | ±15.9% | 179.05–246.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 212.93 | ±15.8% | 179.18–246.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 213.97 | ±16.9% | 177.75–250.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 260.36 | ±8.8% | 237.51–283.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 247.11 | ±9.8% | 222.86–271.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 269.33 | ±9.7% | 243.21–295.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 281.80 | ±10.0% | 253.60–310.00 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.4% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 247.11 → 247.11 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 269.33 → 247.11 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -12.3% | 区间外 | 281.80 → 247.11 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -15.7% | 区间外 | 293.00 → 247.11 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 273.80 → 247.11 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -9.0% | 区间外 | 271.53 → 247.11 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 278.24 → 247.11 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 276.39 → 247.11 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -10.9% | 区间外 | 277.22 → 247.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 276.46 → 247.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 248.30 → 247.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 249.28 → 247.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 242.00 → 247.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | +6.9% | 区间内 | 231.10 → 247.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 236.66 → 247.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.5% | +5.3% | 区间内 | 234.70 → 247.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | +7.7% | 区间内 | 229.50 → 247.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | +7.3% | 区间内 | 230.38 → 247.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +12.1% | 区间内 | 220.50 → 247.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | +10.5% | 区间内 | 223.63 → 247.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | +10.2% | 区间内 | 224.30 → 247.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | +17.7% | 区间外 | 209.89 → 247.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 212.80 → 247.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.4% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 212.93 → 247.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | +15.5% | 区间外 | 213.97 → 247.11 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.6% | +12.7% | 区间内 | 219.20 → 247.11 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | +10.4% | 区间内 | 223.89 → 247.11 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | +3.9% | 区间内 | 237.92 → 247.11 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 293.00 → 293.26 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 273.80 → 293.26 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 271.53 → 293.26 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 278.24 → 293.26 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +6.1% | 区间外 | 276.39 → 293.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +5.8% | 区间外 | 277.22 → 293.26 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +6.1% | 区间内 | 276.46 → 293.26 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +18.1% | 区间外 | 248.30 → 293.26 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +17.6% | 区间外 | 249.28 → 293.26 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +21.2% | 区间外 | 242.00 → 293.26 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +26.9% | 区间外 | 231.10 → 293.26 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +23.9% | 区间外 | 236.66 → 293.26 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +25.0% | 区间外 | 234.70 → 293.26 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +27.8% | 区间外 | 229.50 → 293.26 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +27.3% | 区间外 | 230.38 → 293.26 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +33.0% | 区间外 | 220.50 → 293.26 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +31.1% | 区间外 | 223.63 → 293.26 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +30.7% | 区间外 | 224.30 → 293.26 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +39.7% | 区间外 | 209.89 → 293.26 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +37.8% | 区间外 | 212.80 → 293.26 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +37.7% | 区间外 | 212.93 → 293.26 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | +37.1% | 区间外 | 213.97 → 293.26 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +33.8% | 区间外 | 219.20 → 293.26 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +31.0% | 区间外 | 223.89 → 293.26 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | +23.3% | 区间外 | 237.92 → 293.26 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 277.22 → 277.22 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.8% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 276.46 → 277.22 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +11.6% | 区间外 | 248.30 → 277.22 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | +11.2% | 区间外 | 249.28 → 277.22 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | +14.6% | 区间外 | 242.00 → 277.22 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | +20.0% | 区间外 | 231.10 → 277.22 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | +17.1% | 区间外 | 236.66 → 277.22 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.