CVX historial de movimiento esperado Chevron Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango77%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado77%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.1%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.0%
Error medio abs.2.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 224.70 | ±2.5% | 219.15–230.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 225.00 | ±2.9% | 218.57–231.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 222.40 | ±3.4% | 214.82–229.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 217.80 | ±3.3% | 210.68–224.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 211.87 | ±3.9% | 203.64–220.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 211.55 | ±4.1% | 202.90–220.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 204.94 | ±4.3% | 196.21–213.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 207.82 | ±4.6% | 198.25–217.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 206.47 | ±4.5% | 197.22–215.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 206.69 | ±4.9% | 196.59–216.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 207.38 | ±5.1% | 196.73–218.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 202.75 | ±6.3% | 190.05–215.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 202.81 | ±6.3% | 190.11–215.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 204.08 | ±6.3% | 191.18–216.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 209.15 | ±6.5% | 195.50–222.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 211.99 | ±6.7% | 197.76–226.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 211.65 | ±7.1% | 196.68–226.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 217.33 | ±7.6% | 200.85–233.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 212.17 | ±7.2% | 196.87–227.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 213.80 | ±7.0% | 198.82–228.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 213.18 | ±7.2% | 197.93–228.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 213.90 | ±7.0% | 198.88–228.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 210.21 | ±7.4% | 194.61–225.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 208.60 | ±7.1% | 193.72–223.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 208.47 | ±7.3% | 193.32–223.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 211.30 | ±7.7% | 195.00–227.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 224.70 | ±4.4% | 214.78–234.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 225.00 | ±4.9% | 214.05–235.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 222.40 | ±5.3% | 210.65–234.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 217.80 | ±5.1% | 206.72–228.88 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 225.00 → 224.99 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +1.2% | dentro | 222.40 → 224.99 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +3.3% | fuera | 217.80 → 224.99 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +6.2% | fuera | 211.87 → 224.99 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +6.4% | fuera | 211.55 → 224.99 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +9.8% | fuera | 204.94 → 224.99 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +8.3% | fuera | 207.82 → 224.99 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +9.0% | fuera | 206.47 → 224.99 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +8.9% | fuera | 206.69 → 224.99 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +8.5% | fuera | 207.38 → 224.99 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +11.0% | fuera | 202.75 → 224.99 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +10.9% | fuera | 202.81 → 224.99 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +10.2% | fuera | 204.08 → 224.99 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +7.6% | fuera | 209.15 → 224.99 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +6.1% | fuera | 211.99 → 224.99 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +6.3% | dentro | 211.65 → 224.99 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +3.5% | dentro | 217.33 → 224.99 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +6.0% | dentro | 212.17 → 224.99 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +5.2% | dentro | 213.80 → 224.99 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +5.5% | dentro | 213.18 → 224.99 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +5.2% | dentro | 213.90 → 224.99 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.0% | fuera | 210.21 → 224.99 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.9% | fuera | 208.60 → 224.99 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.9% | fuera | 208.47 → 224.99 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +6.5% | dentro | 211.30 → 224.99 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +6.3% | dentro | 211.71 → 224.99 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +6.8% | dentro | 210.61 → 224.99 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | +9.1% | fuera | 206.26 → 224.99 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 211.87 → 211.98 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 211.55 → 211.98 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +3.4% | fuera | 204.94 → 211.98 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +2.0% | fuera | 207.82 → 211.98 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.7% | fuera | 206.47 → 211.98 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +2.6% | dentro | 206.69 → 211.98 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.2% | dentro | 207.38 → 211.98 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +4.6% | dentro | 202.75 → 211.98 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +4.5% | dentro | 202.81 → 211.98 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +3.9% | dentro | 204.08 → 211.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 209.15 → 211.98 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 211.99 → 211.98 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +0.2% | dentro | 211.65 → 211.98 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.5% | dentro | 217.33 → 211.98 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 212.17 → 211.98 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 213.80 → 211.98 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -0.6% | dentro | 213.18 → 211.98 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -0.9% | dentro | 213.90 → 211.98 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 210.21 → 211.98 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +1.6% | dentro | 208.60 → 211.98 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +1.7% | dentro | 208.47 → 211.98 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 211.30 → 211.98 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 211.71 → 211.98 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +0.7% | dentro | 210.61 → 211.98 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | +2.8% | dentro | 206.26 → 211.98 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 206.69 → 206.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 207.38 → 206.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | +1.9% | dentro | 202.75 → 206.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | +1.9% | dentro | 202.81 → 206.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 204.08 → 206.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 209.15 → 206.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 211.99 → 206.69 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.