CVS historial de movimiento esperado CVS Health Corp.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango45%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado45%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.2%
Error medio abs.2.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 92.50 | ±2.9% | 89.83–95.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 92.36 | ±3.3% | 89.31–95.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 90.39 | ±4.0% | 86.75–94.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 87.55 | ±4.2% | 83.86–91.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 86.23 | ±5.0% | 81.94–90.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 84.00 | ±7.2% | 77.98–90.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 88.12 | ±6.2% | 82.67–93.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 86.24 | ±6.0% | 81.09–91.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 87.17 | ±6.2% | 81.78–92.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 87.05 | ±7.1% | 80.83–93.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 85.20 | ±6.6% | 79.56–90.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 87.17 | ±7.7% | 80.47–93.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 87.27 | ±7.7% | 80.57–93.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 87.59 | ±7.4% | 81.09–94.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 88.89 | ±8.2% | 81.58–96.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 92.05 | ±7.8% | 84.87–99.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 93.17 | ±8.7% | 85.03–101.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 94.18 | ±7.9% | 86.75–101.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 95.76 | ±7.7% | 88.37–103.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 94.34 | ±8.7% | 86.14–102.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 95.35 | ±8.5% | 87.22–103.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 95.60 | ±8.7% | 87.33–103.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 96.07 | ±9.0% | 87.42–104.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 96.34 | ±8.4% | 88.29–104.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 97.51 | ±8.4% | 89.31–105.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 97.08 | ±8.1% | 89.21–104.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 92.50 | ±4.3% | 88.56–96.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 92.36 | ±4.7% | 88.04–96.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 90.39 | ±5.0% | 85.86–94.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 87.55 | ±5.1% | 83.11–92.00 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 92.36 → 92.36 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +2.2% | fuera | 90.39 → 92.36 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +5.5% | fuera | 87.55 → 92.36 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +7.1% | fuera | 86.23 → 92.36 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +10.0% | fuera | 84.00 → 92.36 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +4.8% | fuera | 88.12 → 92.36 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +7.1% | fuera | 86.24 → 92.36 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +6.0% | fuera | 87.17 → 92.36 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +6.1% | fuera | 87.05 → 92.36 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +8.4% | fuera | 85.20 → 92.36 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +6.0% | dentro | 87.17 → 92.36 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +5.8% | dentro | 87.27 → 92.36 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +5.4% | dentro | 87.59 → 92.36 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +3.9% | dentro | 88.89 → 92.36 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 92.05 → 92.36 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 93.17 → 92.36 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -1.9% | dentro | 94.18 → 92.36 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -3.6% | dentro | 95.76 → 92.36 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 94.34 → 92.36 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -3.1% | dentro | 95.35 → 92.36 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -3.4% | dentro | 95.60 → 92.36 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -3.9% | dentro | 96.07 → 92.36 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -4.1% | dentro | 96.34 → 92.36 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -5.3% | dentro | 97.51 → 92.36 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 97.08 → 92.36 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -4.7% | dentro | 96.94 → 92.36 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -5.3% | dentro | 97.49 → 92.36 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -1.4% | dentro | 93.64 → 92.36 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 86.23 → 86.16 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 84.00 → 86.16 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 88.12 → 86.16 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 86.24 → 86.16 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 87.17 → 86.16 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -1.0% | dentro | 87.05 → 86.16 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +1.1% | dentro | 85.20 → 86.16 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -1.2% | dentro | 87.17 → 86.16 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -1.3% | dentro | 87.27 → 86.16 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -1.6% | dentro | 87.59 → 86.16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -3.1% | dentro | 88.89 → 86.16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -6.4% | fuera | 92.05 → 86.16 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.5% | fuera | 93.17 → 86.16 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -8.5% | fuera | 94.18 → 86.16 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -10.0% | fuera | 95.76 → 86.16 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -8.7% | fuera | 94.34 → 86.16 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -9.6% | fuera | 95.35 → 86.16 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -9.9% | fuera | 95.60 → 86.16 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -10.3% | fuera | 96.07 → 86.16 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -10.6% | fuera | 96.34 → 86.16 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -11.6% | fuera | 97.51 → 86.16 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -11.3% | fuera | 97.08 → 86.16 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -11.1% | fuera | 96.94 → 86.16 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -11.6% | fuera | 97.49 → 86.16 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -8.0% | fuera | 93.64 → 86.16 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | -0.7% | dentro | 87.05 → 86.46 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | +1.5% | dentro | 85.20 → 86.46 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -0.8% | dentro | 87.17 → 86.46 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 87.27 → 86.46 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -1.3% | dentro | 87.59 → 86.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -2.7% | dentro | 88.89 → 86.46 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -6.1% | fuera | 92.05 → 86.46 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.