CVNA 预期波动历史 Carvana Co.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内65%
|实际值| 低于预期值65%
平均预期波动幅度±8.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.8%
平均绝对误差2.8pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 58.78 | ±0.4% | 58.55–59.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 57.81 | ±4.3% | 55.31–60.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 60.39 | ±4.8% | 57.50–63.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 63.71 | ±6.0% | 59.87–67.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 63.48 | ±6.8% | 59.19–67.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 62.98 | ±7.2% | 58.44–67.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 63.88 | ±7.8% | 58.89–68.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 63.79 | ±8.4% | 58.45–69.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 63.77 | ±9.1% | 57.98–69.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 62.81 | ±9.9% | 56.62–69.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 65.69 | ±11.5% | 58.12–73.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 65.66 | ±11.5% | 58.09–73.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 67.42 | ±11.8% | 59.45–75.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 65.54 | ±12.7% | 57.19–73.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 66.00 | ±12.8% | 57.52–74.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 65.50 | ±13.7% | 56.55–74.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 67.13 | ±14.0% | 57.76–76.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 70.64 | ±13.7% | 60.97–80.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 69.30 | ±13.9% | 59.67–78.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 70.39 | ±14.6% | 60.09–80.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 73.32 | ±15.5% | 61.95–84.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 74.75 | ±15.1% | 63.50–86.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 74.50 | ±15.1% | 63.27–85.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 74.33 | ±15.1% | 63.13–85.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 73.41 | ±15.1% | 62.31–84.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 74.42 | ±15.5% | 62.90–85.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 72.18 | ±15.7% | 60.83–83.53 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 73.53 | ±15.8% | 61.88–85.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 58.78 | ±7.0% | 54.68–62.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 57.81 | ±8.1% | 53.12–62.49 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 63.71 → 63.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 63.48 → 63.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 62.98 → 63.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 63.88 → 63.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 63.79 → 63.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 63.77 → 63.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 62.81 → 63.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 65.69 → 63.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 65.66 → 63.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 67.42 → 63.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 65.54 → 63.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 66.00 → 63.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 65.50 → 63.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 67.13 → 63.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -9.8% | 区间内 | 70.64 → 63.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 69.30 → 63.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -9.5% | 区间内 | 70.39 → 63.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -13.1% | 区间内 | 73.32 → 63.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -14.7% | 区间外 | 74.75 → 63.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -14.5% | 区间外 | 74.50 → 63.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 74.33 → 63.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | -13.2% | 区间内 | 73.41 → 63.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -14.4% | 区间外 | 74.42 → 63.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -11.7% | 区间内 | 72.18 → 63.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | -13.3% | 区间内 | 73.53 → 63.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 63.77 → 63.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 62.81 → 63.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 65.69 → 63.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 65.66 → 63.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -5.4% | 区间内 | 67.42 → 63.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 65.54 → 63.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 66.00 → 63.77 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 65.50 → 63.77 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 67.13 → 63.77 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | -9.7% | 区间内 | 70.64 → 63.77 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.7% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 69.30 → 63.77 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | -9.4% | 区间内 | 70.39 → 63.77 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.5% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 73.32 → 63.77 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.9% | -14.7% | 区间外 | 74.75 → 63.77 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | -14.4% | 区间外 | 74.50 → 63.77 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.0% | -14.2% | 区间外 | 74.33 → 63.77 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.4% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 73.41 → 63.77 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 74.42 → 63.77 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -11.7% | 区间内 | 72.18 → 63.77 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | -13.3% | 区间外 | 73.53 → 63.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 65.69 → 65.06 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -0.9% | 区间内 | 65.66 → 65.06 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 67.42 → 65.06 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 65.54 → 65.06 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 66.00 → 65.06 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.0% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 65.50 → 65.06 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 67.13 → 65.06 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.3% | -7.9% | 区间内 | 70.64 → 65.06 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.8% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 69.30 → 65.06 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.5% | -7.6% | 区间内 | 70.39 → 65.06 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.6% | -11.3% | 区间外 | 73.32 → 65.06 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.1% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 74.75 → 65.06 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.5% | -12.7% | 区间外 | 74.50 → 65.06 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.3% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 74.33 → 65.06 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.6% | -11.4% | 区间外 | 73.41 → 65.06 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.