CVNA historial de movimiento esperado Carvana Co.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango60%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado60%
Movimiento esperado promedio±9.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio8.1%
Error medio abs.2.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 58.70 | ±5.6% | 55.42–61.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 58.78 | ±7.0% | 54.68–62.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 57.81 | ±8.1% | 53.12–62.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 60.39 | ±8.2% | 55.45–65.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 63.71 | ±8.9% | 58.06–69.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 63.48 | ±9.3% | 57.59–69.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 62.98 | ±9.7% | 56.85–69.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 63.88 | ±10.1% | 57.41–70.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 63.79 | ±10.7% | 56.97–70.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 63.77 | ±11.4% | 56.49–71.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 62.81 | ±11.8% | 55.41–70.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 65.69 | ±13.3% | 56.97–74.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 65.66 | ±13.3% | 56.94–74.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 67.42 | ±13.5% | 58.34–76.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 65.54 | ±14.2% | 56.24–74.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 66.00 | ±14.3% | 56.57–75.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 65.50 | ±15.0% | 55.65–75.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 67.13 | ±15.2% | 56.95–77.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 70.64 | ±14.9% | 60.09–81.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 69.30 | ±15.5% | 58.58–80.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 70.39 | ±16.4% | 58.84–81.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 73.32 | ±16.5% | 61.20–85.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 74.75 | ±16.8% | 62.17–87.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 74.50 | ±18.0% | 61.10–87.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 74.33 | ±17.4% | 61.38–87.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 73.41 | ±16.6% | 61.21–85.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 58.70 | ±14.3% | 50.33–67.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 58.78 | ±15.7% | 49.53–68.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 57.81 | ±16.3% | 48.38–67.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 60.39 | ±15.6% | 50.97–69.81 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 58.78 → 58.83 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +1.8% | dentro | 57.81 → 58.83 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 60.39 → 58.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -7.7% | fuera | 63.71 → 58.83 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -7.3% | fuera | 63.48 → 58.83 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -6.6% | dentro | 62.98 → 58.83 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -7.9% | fuera | 63.88 → 58.83 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -7.8% | dentro | 63.79 → 58.83 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -7.7% | dentro | 63.77 → 58.83 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -6.3% | dentro | 62.81 → 58.83 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -10.4% | dentro | 65.69 → 58.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -10.4% | dentro | 65.66 → 58.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -12.7% | fuera | 67.42 → 58.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -10.2% | dentro | 65.54 → 58.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | -10.9% | dentro | 66.00 → 58.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -10.2% | dentro | 65.50 → 58.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -12.4% | dentro | 67.13 → 58.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -16.7% | fuera | 70.64 → 58.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -15.1% | fuera | 69.30 → 58.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | -16.4% | fuera | 70.39 → 58.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | -19.8% | fuera | 73.32 → 58.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -21.3% | fuera | 74.75 → 58.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -21.0% | fuera | 74.50 → 58.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -20.9% | fuera | 74.33 → 58.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -19.9% | fuera | 73.41 → 58.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.5% | -20.9% | fuera | 74.42 → 58.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | -18.5% | fuera | 72.18 → 58.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.8% | -20.0% | fuera | 73.53 → 58.83 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 63.71 → 63.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +0.4% | dentro | 63.48 → 63.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +1.2% | dentro | 62.98 → 63.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 63.88 → 63.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 63.79 → 63.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 63.77 → 63.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +1.5% | dentro | 62.81 → 63.73 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -3.0% | dentro | 65.69 → 63.73 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -2.9% | dentro | 65.66 → 63.73 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -5.5% | dentro | 67.42 → 63.73 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -2.8% | dentro | 65.54 → 63.73 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -3.4% | dentro | 66.00 → 63.73 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -2.7% | dentro | 65.50 → 63.73 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -5.1% | dentro | 67.13 → 63.73 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -9.8% | dentro | 70.64 → 63.73 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -8.0% | dentro | 69.30 → 63.73 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -9.5% | dentro | 70.39 → 63.73 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | -13.1% | dentro | 73.32 → 63.73 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -14.7% | fuera | 74.75 → 63.73 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -14.5% | fuera | 74.50 → 63.73 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | -14.3% | fuera | 74.33 → 63.73 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.8% | -13.2% | dentro | 73.41 → 63.73 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -14.4% | fuera | 74.42 → 63.73 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -11.7% | dentro | 72.18 → 63.73 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.4% | -13.3% | dentro | 73.53 → 63.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 63.77 → 63.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | +1.5% | dentro | 62.81 → 63.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -2.9% | dentro | 65.69 → 63.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -2.9% | dentro | 65.66 → 63.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -5.4% | dentro | 67.42 → 63.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -2.7% | dentro | 65.54 → 63.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -3.4% | dentro | 66.00 → 63.77 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.