CVNA expected-move history Carvana Co.

Every trading day after the close we record what the options market was pricing — per expiration, before the outcome was known. When an expiration passes, the outcome is written next to the original estimate. Estimates are never revised after the fact. How to read these statistics · recording since Aug 31, 2026

Comparisons resolved121

Close inside range60%

|Actual| under expected60%

Avg expected move±9.0%

Avg |actual| move8.1%

Mean abs. error2.8pt

Implied vs realized, by expiration

For each expiration: the amber outline is the expected move recorded closest to expiry; the solid bar is what the stock actually did. Signed values are printed beneath the bars.

expected (recorded)actual

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Snapshot	Expires	DTE	Spot then	Expected move	Range	Method
Oct 19	Oct 23	4	58.70	±5.6%	55.42–61.99	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 23	7	58.78	±7.0%	54.68–62.88	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 23	9	57.81	±8.1%	53.12–62.49	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 23	10	60.39	±8.2%	55.45–65.33	em-1.0
Oct 09	Oct 23	14	63.71	±8.9%	58.06–69.37	em-1.0
Oct 08	Oct 23	15	63.48	±9.3%	57.59–69.37	em-1.0
Oct 07	Oct 23	16	62.98	±9.7%	56.85–69.11	em-1.0
Oct 06	Oct 23	17	63.88	±10.1%	57.41–70.36	em-1.0
Oct 05	Oct 23	18	63.79	±10.7%	56.97–70.61	em-1.0
Oct 02	Oct 23	21	63.77	±11.4%	56.49–71.05	em-1.0
Oct 01	Oct 23	22	62.81	±11.8%	55.41–70.21	em-1.0
Sep 23	Oct 23	30	65.69	±13.3%	56.97–74.42	em-1.0
Sep 22	Oct 23	31	65.66	±13.3%	56.94–74.39	em-1.0
Sep 21	Oct 23	32	67.42	±13.5%	58.34–76.50	em-1.0
Sep 18	Oct 23	35	65.54	±14.2%	56.24–74.84	em-1.0
Sep 17	Oct 23	36	66.00	±14.3%	56.57–75.42	em-1.0
Sep 16	Oct 23	37	65.50	±15.0%	55.65–75.35	em-1.0
Sep 15	Oct 23	38	67.13	±15.2%	56.95–77.31	em-1.0
Sep 14	Oct 23	39	70.64	±14.9%	60.09–81.19	em-1.0
Sep 11	Oct 23	42	69.30	±15.5%	58.58–80.03	em-1.0
Sep 10	Oct 23	43	70.39	±16.4%	58.84–81.94	em-1.0
Sep 09	Oct 23	44	73.32	±16.5%	61.20–85.44	em-1.0
Sep 08	Oct 23	45	74.75	±16.8%	62.17–87.33	em-1.0
Sep 07	Oct 23	46	74.50	±18.0%	61.10–87.90	em-1.0
Sep 04	Oct 23	49	74.33	±17.4%	61.38–87.28	em-1.0
Sep 03	Oct 23	50	73.41	±16.6%	61.21–85.61	em-1.0
Oct 19	Oct 30	11	58.70	±14.3%	50.33–67.08	em-1.0
Oct 16	Oct 30	14	58.78	±15.7%	49.53–68.03	em-1.0
Oct 14	Oct 30	16	57.81	±16.3%	48.38–67.23	em-1.0
Oct 13	Oct 30	17	60.39	±15.6%	50.97–69.81	em-1.0

Resolved snapshots

Snapshot	Expired	Expected	Actual	Inside range?	Spot → close
Oct 16, 2026	Oct 16	±0.4%	+0.1%	inside	58.78 → 58.83
Oct 14, 2026	Oct 16	±4.3%	+1.8%	inside	57.81 → 58.83
Oct 13, 2026	Oct 16	±4.8%	-2.6%	inside	60.39 → 58.83
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 16	±6.0%	-7.7%	outside	63.71 → 58.83
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 16	±6.8%	-7.3%	outside	63.48 → 58.83
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 16	±7.2%	-6.6%	inside	62.98 → 58.83
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 16	±7.8%	-7.9%	outside	63.88 → 58.83
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 16	±8.4%	-7.8%	inside	63.79 → 58.83
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 16	±9.1%	-7.7%	inside	63.77 → 58.83
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 16	±9.9%	-6.3%	inside	62.81 → 58.83
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 16	±11.5%	-10.4%	inside	65.69 → 58.83
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 16	±11.5%	-10.4%	inside	65.66 → 58.83
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 16	±11.8%	-12.7%	outside	67.42 → 58.83
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 16	±12.7%	-10.2%	inside	65.54 → 58.83
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 16	±12.8%	-10.9%	inside	66.00 → 58.83
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 16	±13.7%	-10.2%	inside	65.50 → 58.83
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 16	±14.0%	-12.4%	inside	67.13 → 58.83
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 16	±13.7%	-16.7%	outside	70.64 → 58.83
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 16	±13.9%	-15.1%	outside	69.30 → 58.83
Sep 10, 2026	Oct 16	±14.6%	-16.4%	outside	70.39 → 58.83
Sep 09, 2026	Oct 16	±15.5%	-19.8%	outside	73.32 → 58.83
Sep 08, 2026	Oct 16	±15.1%	-21.3%	outside	74.75 → 58.83
Sep 07, 2026	Oct 16	±15.1%	-21.0%	outside	74.50 → 58.83
Sep 04, 2026	Oct 16	±15.1%	-20.9%	outside	74.33 → 58.83
Sep 03, 2026	Oct 16	±15.1%	-19.9%	outside	73.41 → 58.83
Sep 02, 2026	Oct 16	±15.5%	-20.9%	outside	74.42 → 58.83
Sep 01, 2026	Oct 16	±15.7%	-18.5%	outside	72.18 → 58.83
Aug 31, 2026	Oct 16	±15.8%	-20.0%	outside	73.53 → 58.83
Oct 09, 2026	Oct 09	±0.5%	+0.0%	inside	63.71 → 63.73
Oct 08, 2026	Oct 09	±2.5%	+0.4%	inside	63.48 → 63.73
Oct 07, 2026	Oct 09	±3.7%	+1.2%	inside	62.98 → 63.73
Oct 06, 2026	Oct 09	±4.6%	-0.2%	inside	63.88 → 63.73
Oct 05, 2026	Oct 09	±5.5%	-0.1%	inside	63.79 → 63.73
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 09	±6.4%	-0.1%	inside	63.77 → 63.73
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 09	±7.2%	+1.5%	inside	62.81 → 63.73
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 09	±10.0%	-3.0%	inside	65.69 → 63.73
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 09	±10.0%	-2.9%	inside	65.66 → 63.73
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 09	±10.2%	-5.5%	inside	67.42 → 63.73
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 09	±11.0%	-2.8%	inside	65.54 → 63.73
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 09	±11.1%	-3.4%	inside	66.00 → 63.73
Sep 16, 2026	Oct 09	±12.3%	-2.7%	inside	65.50 → 63.73
Sep 15, 2026	Oct 09	±12.3%	-5.1%	inside	67.13 → 63.73
Sep 14, 2026	Oct 09	±12.2%	-9.8%	inside	70.64 → 63.73
Sep 11, 2026	Oct 09	±12.4%	-8.0%	inside	69.30 → 63.73
Sep 10, 2026	Oct 09	±13.3%	-9.5%	inside	70.39 → 63.73
Sep 09, 2026	Oct 09	±13.1%	-13.1%	inside	73.32 → 63.73
Sep 08, 2026	Oct 09	±13.5%	-14.7%	outside	74.75 → 63.73
Sep 07, 2026	Oct 09	±13.7%	-14.5%	outside	74.50 → 63.73
Sep 04, 2026	Oct 09	±13.6%	-14.3%	outside	74.33 → 63.73
Sep 03, 2026	Oct 09	±13.8%	-13.2%	inside	73.41 → 63.73
Sep 02, 2026	Oct 09	±14.2%	-14.4%	outside	74.42 → 63.73
Sep 01, 2026	Oct 09	±14.2%	-11.7%	inside	72.18 → 63.73
Aug 31, 2026	Oct 09	±14.4%	-13.3%	inside	73.53 → 63.73
Oct 02, 2026	Oct 02	±0.5%	+0.0%	inside	63.77 → 63.77
Oct 01, 2026	Oct 02	±3.1%	+1.5%	inside	62.81 → 63.77
Sep 23, 2026	Oct 02	±7.9%	-2.9%	inside	65.69 → 63.77
Sep 22, 2026	Oct 02	±7.9%	-2.9%	inside	65.66 → 63.77
Sep 21, 2026	Oct 02	±8.1%	-5.4%	inside	67.42 → 63.77
Sep 18, 2026	Oct 02	±9.0%	-2.7%	inside	65.54 → 63.77
Sep 17, 2026	Oct 02	±9.3%	-3.4%	inside	66.00 → 63.77

Outcomes compare the recorded range with the closing price on expiration day. Method version shown per row where it differs; current: em-1.0.

CVNA expected-move history Carvana Co.

Implied vs realized, by expiration

Currently recorded (awaiting outcome)

Resolved snapshots

Consumer Cyclical

ETF

Technology

Financial Services

Industrials

Consumer Defensive