CRWD historial de movimiento esperado CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango43%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado43%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio11.8%
Error medio abs.6.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 228.40 | ±5.0% | 216.95–239.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 226.95 | ±6.3% | 212.58–241.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 248.40 | ±6.6% | 231.93–264.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 261.10 | ±6.6% | 243.78–278.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 274.92 | ±7.1% | 255.37–294.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 263.20 | ±7.5% | 243.53–282.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 266.15 | ±7.9% | 245.25–287.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 279.25 | ±8.3% | 256.05–302.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 272.88 | ±8.6% | 249.41–296.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 270.19 | ±9.5% | 244.52–295.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 266.01 | ±10.3% | 238.69–293.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 249.72 | ±12.2% | 219.17–280.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 249.66 | ±12.2% | 219.11–280.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 248.13 | ±13.0% | 215.98–280.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 237.47 | ±12.8% | 207.12–267.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 245.64 | ±13.7% | 211.99–279.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 241.66 | ±13.8% | 208.21–275.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 241.51 | ±14.4% | 206.73–276.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 234.90 | ±14.8% | 200.13–269.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 206.04 | ±13.9% | 177.44–234.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 209.25 | ±14.0% | 179.90–238.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 207.68 | ±14.5% | 177.60–237.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 209.70 | ±14.7% | 178.88–240.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 213.20 | ±15.3% | 180.67–245.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 212.62 | ±15.3% | 180.10–245.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 213.67 | ±15.1% | 181.37–245.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 228.40 | ±8.2% | 209.75–247.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 226.95 | ±9.0% | 206.48–247.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 248.40 | ±8.6% | 227.00–269.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 261.10 | ±8.6% | 238.62–283.57 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 226.95 → 227.39 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -8.5% | fuera | 248.40 → 227.39 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -12.9% | fuera | 261.10 → 227.39 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -17.3% | fuera | 274.92 → 227.39 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -13.6% | fuera | 263.20 → 227.39 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -14.6% | fuera | 266.15 → 227.39 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -18.6% | fuera | 279.25 → 227.39 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -16.7% | fuera | 272.88 → 227.39 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -15.8% | fuera | 270.19 → 227.39 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -14.5% | fuera | 266.01 → 227.39 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -8.9% | dentro | 249.72 → 227.39 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | -8.9% | dentro | 249.66 → 227.39 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -8.4% | dentro | 248.13 → 227.39 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -4.2% | dentro | 237.47 → 227.39 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | -7.4% | dentro | 245.64 → 227.39 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -5.9% | dentro | 241.66 → 227.39 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -5.8% | dentro | 241.51 → 227.39 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -3.2% | dentro | 234.90 → 227.39 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +10.4% | dentro | 206.04 → 227.39 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | +8.7% | dentro | 209.25 → 227.39 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +9.5% | dentro | 207.68 → 227.39 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +8.4% | dentro | 209.70 → 227.39 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +6.7% | dentro | 213.20 → 227.39 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +6.9% | dentro | 212.62 → 227.39 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +6.4% | dentro | 213.67 → 227.39 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +10.9% | dentro | 205.00 → 227.39 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | +6.4% | dentro | 213.66 → 227.39 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | -1.0% | dentro | 229.60 → 227.39 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 274.92 → 275.04 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +4.5% | fuera | 263.20 → 275.04 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +3.3% | fuera | 266.15 → 275.04 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -1.5% | dentro | 279.25 → 275.04 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 272.88 → 275.04 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +1.8% | dentro | 270.19 → 275.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +3.4% | dentro | 266.01 → 275.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +10.1% | fuera | 249.72 → 275.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +10.2% | fuera | 249.66 → 275.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +10.8% | fuera | 248.13 → 275.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +15.8% | fuera | 237.47 → 275.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +12.0% | fuera | 245.64 → 275.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | +13.8% | fuera | 241.66 → 275.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +13.9% | fuera | 241.51 → 275.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +17.1% | fuera | 234.90 → 275.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +33.5% | fuera | 206.04 → 275.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | +31.4% | fuera | 209.25 → 275.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +32.4% | fuera | 207.68 → 275.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +31.2% | fuera | 209.70 → 275.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | +29.0% | fuera | 213.20 → 275.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +29.4% | fuera | 212.62 → 275.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +28.7% | fuera | 213.67 → 275.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +34.2% | fuera | 205.00 → 275.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | +28.7% | fuera | 213.66 → 275.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +19.8% | fuera | 229.60 → 275.04 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 270.19 → 270.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | +1.5% | dentro | 266.01 → 270.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +8.1% | fuera | 249.72 → 270.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +8.2% | fuera | 249.66 → 270.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +8.8% | fuera | 248.13 → 270.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +13.7% | fuera | 237.47 → 270.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | +9.9% | fuera | 245.64 → 270.04 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.