CRM historial de movimiento esperado Salesforce, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango65%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado65%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.0%
Error medio abs.2.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 241.98 | ±3.9% | 232.63–251.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 240.76 | ±4.5% | 229.89–251.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 235.59 | ±5.3% | 223.09–248.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 238.02 | ±5.2% | 225.67–250.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 228.75 | ±5.9% | 215.30–242.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 227.30 | ±6.2% | 213.12–241.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 224.20 | ±6.2% | 210.28–238.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 224.72 | ±6.6% | 209.92–239.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 229.79 | ±6.7% | 214.29–245.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 234.85 | ±7.1% | 218.15–251.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 237.16 | ±7.5% | 219.44–254.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 232.92 | ±9.3% | 211.22–254.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 233.28 | ±9.3% | 211.58–254.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 236.50 | ±9.3% | 214.40–258.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 237.80 | ±9.7% | 214.65–260.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 243.32 | ±9.6% | 219.87–266.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 250.64 | ±10.4% | 224.49–276.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 256.00 | ±10.7% | 228.68–283.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 259.01 | ±10.9% | 230.84–287.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 247.74 | ±10.6% | 221.46–274.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 243.11 | ±10.9% | 216.69–269.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 243.70 | ±11.2% | 216.40–271.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 248.60 | ±11.5% | 219.93–277.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 259.40 | ±11.4% | 229.90–288.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 259.50 | ±11.4% | 230.00–289.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 264.03 | ±11.4% | 233.85–294.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 241.98 | ±6.2% | 226.93–257.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 240.76 | ±6.9% | 224.24–257.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 235.59 | ±7.1% | 218.97–252.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 238.02 | ±7.0% | 221.27–254.77 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | -0.0% | dentro | 240.76 → 240.70 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.2% | dentro | 235.59 → 240.70 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 238.02 → 240.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.2% | fuera | 228.75 → 240.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +5.9% | fuera | 227.30 → 240.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +7.4% | fuera | 224.20 → 240.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +7.1% | fuera | 224.72 → 240.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +4.7% | dentro | 229.79 → 240.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +2.5% | dentro | 234.85 → 240.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +1.5% | dentro | 237.16 → 240.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +3.3% | dentro | 232.92 → 240.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +3.2% | dentro | 233.28 → 240.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +1.8% | dentro | 236.50 → 240.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +1.2% | dentro | 237.80 → 240.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 243.32 → 240.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -4.0% | dentro | 250.64 → 240.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -6.0% | dentro | 256.00 → 240.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -7.1% | dentro | 259.01 → 240.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -2.8% | dentro | 247.74 → 240.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 243.11 → 240.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -1.2% | dentro | 243.70 → 240.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -3.2% | dentro | 248.60 → 240.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -7.2% | dentro | 259.40 → 240.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -7.2% | dentro | 259.50 → 240.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -8.8% | dentro | 264.03 → 240.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -6.5% | dentro | 257.43 → 240.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -6.2% | dentro | 256.69 → 240.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -7.0% | dentro | 258.89 → 240.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 228.75 → 229.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 227.30 → 229.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +2.2% | dentro | 224.20 → 229.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +2.0% | dentro | 224.72 → 229.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -0.3% | dentro | 229.79 → 229.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -2.4% | dentro | 234.85 → 229.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -3.4% | dentro | 237.16 → 229.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -1.6% | dentro | 232.92 → 229.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -1.8% | dentro | 233.28 → 229.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -3.1% | dentro | 236.50 → 229.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -3.6% | dentro | 237.80 → 229.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -5.8% | dentro | 243.32 → 229.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -8.6% | fuera | 250.64 → 229.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -10.5% | fuera | 256.00 → 229.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -11.5% | fuera | 259.01 → 229.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -7.5% | dentro | 247.74 → 229.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -5.8% | dentro | 243.11 → 229.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -6.0% | dentro | 243.70 → 229.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -7.8% | dentro | 248.60 → 229.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -11.7% | fuera | 259.40 → 229.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | -11.7% | fuera | 259.50 → 229.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -13.2% | fuera | 264.03 → 229.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -11.0% | fuera | 257.43 → 229.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -10.7% | fuera | 256.69 → 229.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -11.5% | fuera | 258.89 → 229.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 234.85 → 234.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -1.0% | dentro | 237.16 → 234.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | +0.8% | dentro | 232.92 → 234.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 233.28 → 234.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -0.8% | dentro | 236.50 → 234.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -1.3% | dentro | 237.80 → 234.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | -3.5% | dentro | 243.32 → 234.69 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.