COST 预期波动历史 Costco Wholesale Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内78%
|实际值| 低于预期值78%
平均预期波动幅度±3.6%
平均|实际|波动幅度2.2%
平均绝对误差1.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 988.00 | ±0.2% | 986.40–989.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 977.84 | ±1.4% | 964.24–991.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 954.43 | ±1.5% | 940.36–968.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 946.94 | ±1.8% | 929.74–964.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 947.01 | ±2.0% | 927.71–966.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 939.06 | ±2.5% | 915.49–962.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 934.07 | ±2.5% | 910.82–957.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 922.50 | ±2.7% | 897.50–947.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 919.17 | ±2.9% | 892.24–946.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 914.00 | ±3.2% | 884.40–943.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 899.72 | ±5.0% | 854.95–944.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 899.50 | ±5.0% | 854.73–944.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 898.50 | ±5.0% | 853.30–943.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 896.44 | ±5.3% | 849.19–943.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 893.00 | ±5.2% | 846.52–939.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 893.86 | ±5.6% | 844.09–943.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 902.45 | ±5.8% | 850.43–954.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 918.72 | ±5.7% | 866.64–970.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 904.14 | ±5.7% | 852.74–955.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 901.55 | ±6.1% | 846.85–956.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 902.77 | ±6.2% | 847.14–958.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 910.15 | ±6.3% | 852.42–967.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 916.00 | ±6.3% | 858.38–973.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 915.76 | ±6.3% | 858.13–973.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 926.60 | ±6.3% | 868.48–984.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 924.77 | ±6.6% | 863.70–985.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 939.46 | ±6.9% | 874.86–1,004.06 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 944.99 | ±6.6% | 882.19–1,007.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 988.00 | ±2.1% | 967.50–1,008.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 977.84 | ±2.5% | 953.59–1,002.09 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 946.94 → 946.92 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 947.01 → 946.92 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 939.06 → 946.92 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 934.07 → 946.92 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +2.6% | 区间外 | 922.50 → 946.92 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 919.17 → 946.92 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.6% | 区间外 | 914.00 → 946.92 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +5.2% | 区间外 | 899.72 → 946.92 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 899.50 → 946.92 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 898.50 → 946.92 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 896.44 → 946.92 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | +6.0% | 区间外 | 893.00 → 946.92 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +5.9% | 区间外 | 893.86 → 946.92 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 902.45 → 946.92 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 918.72 → 946.92 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 904.14 → 946.92 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 901.55 → 946.92 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +4.9% | 区间内 | 902.77 → 946.92 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.8% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 910.15 → 946.92 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 916.00 → 946.92 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 915.76 → 946.92 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 926.60 → 946.92 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 924.77 → 946.92 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 939.46 → 946.92 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 944.99 → 946.92 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.1% | +0.2% | 区间外 | 919.17 → 920.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 914.00 → 920.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 899.72 → 920.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 899.50 → 920.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 898.50 → 920.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 896.44 → 920.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | +3.1% | 区间内 | 893.00 → 920.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 893.86 → 920.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 902.45 → 920.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 918.72 → 920.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 904.14 → 920.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 901.55 → 920.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 902.77 → 920.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 910.15 → 920.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 916.00 → 920.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 915.76 → 920.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 926.60 → 920.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 924.77 → 920.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 939.46 → 920.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 944.99 → 920.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 899.72 → 922.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.1% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 899.50 → 922.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 898.50 → 922.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 896.44 → 922.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.5% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 893.00 → 922.77 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 893.86 → 922.77 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 902.45 → 922.77 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 918.72 → 922.77 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 904.14 → 922.77 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 901.55 → 922.77 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 902.77 → 922.77 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 910.15 → 922.77 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 916.00 → 922.77 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 915.76 → 922.77 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.8% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 926.60 → 922.77 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.