COP historial de movimiento esperado ConocoPhillips
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango58%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado58%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.9%
Error medio abs.2.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 145.42 | ±3.0% | 141.06–149.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 146.74 | ±3.7% | 141.32–152.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 141.92 | ±4.0% | 136.24–147.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 140.76 | ±4.0% | 135.17–146.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 134.51 | ±4.6% | 128.29–140.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 133.63 | ±5.0% | 126.90–140.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 128.69 | ±5.2% | 121.99–135.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 129.35 | ±5.3% | 122.55–136.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 128.40 | ±5.5% | 121.40–135.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 126.75 | ±5.6% | 119.61–133.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 126.96 | ±6.3% | 118.91–135.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 125.38 | ±7.2% | 116.31–134.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 125.56 | ±7.2% | 116.53–134.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 128.00 | ±7.4% | 118.53–137.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 131.91 | ±7.4% | 122.14–141.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 133.19 | ±7.7% | 122.89–143.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 132.63 | ±8.1% | 121.86–143.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 141.55 | ±8.5% | 129.52–153.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 136.80 | ±8.1% | 125.67–147.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 137.32 | ±8.2% | 126.05–148.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 137.04 | ±8.8% | 124.92–149.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 136.87 | ±8.4% | 125.39–148.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 135.20 | ±8.8% | 123.30–147.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 134.26 | ±8.6% | 122.66–145.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 134.72 | ±8.8% | 122.89–146.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 135.84 | ±8.8% | 123.89–147.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 145.42 | ±4.7% | 138.59–152.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 146.74 | ±5.3% | 139.01–154.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 141.92 | ±5.2% | 134.57–149.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 140.76 | ±5.3% | 133.31–148.21 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 146.74 → 146.51 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +3.2% | fuera | 141.92 → 146.51 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +4.1% | fuera | 140.76 → 146.51 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +8.9% | fuera | 134.51 → 146.51 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +9.6% | fuera | 133.63 → 146.51 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +13.8% | fuera | 128.69 → 146.51 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +13.3% | fuera | 129.35 → 146.51 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +14.1% | fuera | 128.40 → 146.51 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +15.6% | fuera | 126.75 → 146.51 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +15.4% | fuera | 126.96 → 146.51 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +16.9% | fuera | 125.38 → 146.51 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +16.7% | fuera | 125.56 → 146.51 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +14.5% | fuera | 128.00 → 146.51 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +11.1% | fuera | 131.91 → 146.51 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +10.0% | fuera | 133.19 → 146.51 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +10.5% | fuera | 132.63 → 146.51 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 141.55 → 146.51 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +7.1% | dentro | 136.80 → 146.51 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +6.7% | dentro | 137.32 → 146.51 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +6.9% | dentro | 137.04 → 146.51 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +7.0% | dentro | 136.87 → 146.51 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +8.4% | fuera | 135.20 → 146.51 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | +9.1% | fuera | 134.26 → 146.51 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | +8.8% | fuera | 134.72 → 146.51 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +7.9% | dentro | 135.84 → 146.51 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +6.9% | dentro | 137.10 → 146.51 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +7.6% | dentro | 136.21 → 146.51 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +11.3% | fuera | 131.67 → 146.51 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 134.51 → 134.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +0.4% | dentro | 133.63 → 134.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +4.2% | fuera | 128.69 → 134.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.7% | fuera | 129.35 → 134.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.4% | fuera | 128.40 → 134.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +5.8% | fuera | 126.75 → 134.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.6% | fuera | 126.96 → 134.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +7.0% | fuera | 125.38 → 134.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +6.8% | fuera | 125.56 → 134.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +4.8% | dentro | 128.00 → 134.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +1.7% | dentro | 131.91 → 134.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +0.7% | dentro | 133.19 → 134.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +1.1% | dentro | 132.63 → 134.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -5.3% | dentro | 141.55 → 134.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -2.0% | dentro | 136.80 → 134.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.3% | dentro | 137.32 → 134.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 137.04 → 134.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 136.87 → 134.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -0.8% | dentro | 135.20 → 134.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 134.26 → 134.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -0.5% | dentro | 134.72 → 134.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -1.3% | dentro | 135.84 → 134.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -2.2% | dentro | 137.10 → 134.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -1.5% | dentro | 136.21 → 134.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.8% | dentro | 131.67 → 134.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 126.75 → 126.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 126.96 → 126.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 125.38 → 126.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +0.9% | dentro | 125.56 → 126.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.0% | dentro | 128.00 → 126.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.9% | dentro | 131.91 → 126.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -4.8% | dentro | 133.19 → 126.75 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.